MLB Bet or Fade for July 10: Here’s Your Triple-Dog Delight Tonight
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Rainman M.
- July 10, 2025
Top MLB Pick: Athletics ML (+134) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top sportsbooks have released their betting odds for tonight’s MLB action, and three games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in:
- Guardians vs. White Sox
- Nationals vs. Cardinals
- Braves vs. Athletics
Let’s dive into these matchups with smart angles before you lock in your bets.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Chicago White Sox
Thursday, July 10, 2025 – 07:40 PM EDT at Rate Field
Cleveland’s Starter
Tonight, the Guardians start Logan Allen.
Allen’s last start might make it look tempting to invest in his team tonight.
However, he has consistently been a pitcher who allows an ERA of over 4.00 — his ERA in every month is over 4.00. While he occasionally has a good start, he always declines to his usual self.
His usual self is a pitcher who, as heat maps show, does an awful job of avoiding the middle, more dangerous parts of the strike zone.
This is especially true of his fastball, which is his favorite pitch and which batters slug .493 against.
White Sox Batters Are Ready
Chicago hitters must be looking forward to facing Allen.
Collectively, they bat .326 and slug .457 against him.
Six different White Sox batters slug at least .440 with him on the mound.
Jonathan Cannon’s Redemption
The White Sox start Jonathan Cannon tonight.
It is true that Cannon’s first start against Cleveland was very poor. But that start took place back in April and happened in Cleveland.
Cannon’s form is much better now: he has allowed a combined total of three earned runs in his last two starts.
Moreover, he gets to face the Guardians at home tonight.
He performs substantially better in his home venue than he does on the road. His road ERA is 4.97, whereas his ERA is 3.38 at home.
At home, he has performed well against every team except a Detroit team that ranks sixth in runs per game, which is 20 spots ahead of Cleveland.
One can count on Cannon at home when his opponent’s lineup is lower-quality.
Cannon’s Big Matchup Advantage
Cannon must be expected to thrive against Cleveland’s lineup because he matches up superbly well against it.
He is a heavy fly-ball-inducing pitcher. Cleveland’s lineup is putrid, with a .196 BA and .322 slugging rate, against this sort of pitcher.
Takeaway
I’ve seen bettors express a disposition to fade Cannon. However, it is primarily Cannon’s starts on the road and secondarily his starts against solid lineups that foster this disposition.
Tonight, he gets to pitch at home, against a weak lineup and against a lineup that he matches up so well against.
We also have to look at prices and who he’s going up against. The White Sox are a terrific home underdog tonight because of Cannon’s positive outlook and because Cannon’s Cleveland counterpart is a vulnerable pitcher who White Sox batters love to feast upon.
Chicago’s improved bullpen, which ranks sixth in this month, will ensure that the White Sox win.
MLB Pick: White Sox ML (+118) at BetOnline
Washington Nationals vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Thursday, July 10, 2025 – 07:45 PM EDT at Busch Stadium
The Declined Miles Mikolas
Miles Mikolas starts for St. Louis tonight.
When folks think of Mikolas, many think of the guy who was an All-Star in 2022.
However, Mikolas has suffered a massive performance decline.
In his last seven starts, he is 0-4 with a 7.75 ERA. The fact that St. Louis is favored tonight shows how slow oddsmakers are to adjust — the fact that many Cardinals fans still rush to his defense shows how pervasive slow adjustments in perception are.
He is simply a broken pitcher whose team cannot justifiably be favored with him starting.
Instead of missing bats, he yields hard contact at tremendous rates.
Consequently, he is giving up a lot of runs. He has allowed 14 runs in his last two starts combined.
Mikolas vs. Nationals Batters
Despite facing a weaker version of him previously, Nationals batters already boast a strong track record against Mikolas.
Collectively, they slug .483 with him on the mound. Five different Nationals batters slug over .520 against him.
Washington’s Stronger Starter
Mike Soroka starts for the Nationals tonight.
Based on his last start, one might try to claim that Soroka’s form is likewise bad.
But this claim would not be accurate. In Soroka’s last start, he was victimized by an unfortunately high BABIP (batting average of balls in play).
His 2.33 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in that start shows how well he truly performed. The fact that his FIP has been below 2.50 in each of his last three starts attests to the high quality of his current form.
Takeaway
We are getting a much stronger starting pitcher at a great price.
To counter this disadvantage, St. Louis will need its lineup to play really well. But the Cardinals have consistently struggled to be productive on offense. They have failed to exceed two runs in five of their last eight games.
With Washington’s top relievers fresh after their team’s blowout win yesterday, the Nationals are a great full-game investment.
MLB Pick: Nationals ML (+123) at BetOnline
Atlanta Braves vs. Athletics
Thursday, July 10, 2025 – 09:05 PM EDT at Sutter Health Park
Respecting the Athletics’ Starter
JP Sears starts for the A’s tonight.
Having the A’s be such strong underdogs at home tonight with Sears starting is disrespectful. It fails to account for how well Sears is pitching right now.
He enters today’s game having allowed zero runs in his last two starts.
Sears’ ERA does look bad, but that’s because ERA is a season-long statistic.
Season ERA conceals the fact that pitchers enter different phases throughout a season. Sears is a guy who needs time to enter a strong phase. Last year, his ERA was easily at its best in July and August.
As we progress through July, we again see Sears in his best form at this time of year.
Spencer Strider Is Overrated
Atlanta is heavily favored tonight also because it starts Spencer Strider, who carries a strong public reputation.
But Strider is not who he used to be. This decline has been evident all year. In particular, he is giving up more walks and more home runs. He is inducing less soft contact.
In his last start, he yielded a 4.50 ERA, including two home runs.
This decline can’t be surprising: he had major arm surgery, which is giving him mechanical problems and problems with his velocity and command. It’s time that, as bettors, we stop being surprised when Strider struggles.
Matchup Details
Expect Strider to struggle mightily against an A’s lineup that matches up optimally well against him.
They rank first with a .507 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
Conversely, Atlanta ranks 23rd with a .355 slugging rate against Sears’ favorite pitches from lefties.
Matchup details lend further justification for a play on the A’s. Oddsmakers are not simply overrating Strider’s Braves and undervaluing Sears; they are also not accounting for decisive matchup factors.
The A’s bullpen, as evident in its July ranking, has improved tremendously. Its top arms are fresh and ready to secure a win for their team.
MLB Pick: Athletics ML (+134) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
