MLB Bet or Fade for June 28: The Blue Jays Are Flying High
-
Rainman M.
- June 28, 2025
Top MLB Pick: Blue Jays First-Five ML (-117) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The sportsbooks have released their betting odds for today’s baseball action, and we’re going to take a look at three games today:
- Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles
- San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds
- Toronto Blue Jays vs. Chicago Red Sox
Read on for our expert betting advice!
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles
Saturday, June 28, 2025 – 4:05 PM EDT at Camden Yards
Baltimore’s Let-Down Spot
Situational reasoning suffices to justify a wager on the Rays today. When bettors see that a team attained a massive run total in its most recent game, they tend to think highly of that team’s outlook for its current game.
This line of thought, sustained by recency bias, is erroneous. The Orioles perfectly prove my point: they are 0-3 in the game following one in which they scored ten or more runs. In those three losses, they scored a combined total of four runs. Yesterday, they scored 22 runs. Expect their offense to come crashing back down to Earth.
Conversely, the Rays will score a lot of runs. They get to face Baltimore starter Zach Eflin, against whom, collectively, they bat .364 and slug .667. Eight different Tampa Bay batters slug at least .600 with Eflin on the mound.
Tampa Bay’s Superior Pitching
It is worth observing that Tampa Bay’s pitching success will not simply be a product of Baltimore’s offensive ineptitude today.
Zack Littell starts for the Rays today. He loves pitching in Baltimore’s venue, where he boasts a 2.30 ERA in three career starts and where he now faces a weaker version of the Orioles’ lineup.
It is true that Littell’s road ERA is worse than his home ERA, but road ERA is often a useless statistic because it does not discriminate between venues. A major decline, for a pitcher, in success on the road might indicate a reason to blindly fade him in away games, but Littell’s ERA is only slightly worse than his home one because he succeeds in some road venues. Camden Yards is one of those venues.
As for their relievers, the Rays’ bullpen ranks number three, positioning it 21 spots ahead of Baltimore’s. The superiority of the Rays’ bullpen makes them worthy of a full-game investment.
MLB Pick: Rays ML (+100) at BetOnline
San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds
Saturday, June 28, 2025 – 4:10 PM EDT at Great American Ball Park
San Diego’s Unreliable Starter
Randy Vasquez starts for the Padres today. The pitcher might seem to have improved his form because he held the Royals to two runs in his last start; however, his 5.22 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) shows how poorly he actually performed in that start.
He has yielded an FIP of over 5.00 in each of his last five starts, as he even struggled at home against baseball’s third-worst run-producing squad on the road, the Pirates.
Cincinnati’s Improved Lineup
The Reds’ lineup began the season in terrible form. If you haven’t been paying attention to Cincinnati’s offense since that ugly start, then you are nescient.
It is important to keep track of how teams fare in different phases of the season because it is a long season. How the Reds looked in the beginning of April is completely irrelevant to their current form in the final days of June.
Most recently, they scored eight runs in a seven-run win over San Diego. Their outlook tonight is particularly strong because they rank fifth with a .452 slugging rate against Vasquez’s favorite pitches from righties.
Andrew Abbott
Cincinnati has a tremendous advantage with Andrew Abbott on the mound. In contrast to Vasquez, Abbott has allowed a combined total of two earned runs in his last three games.
Contrasting the run-limiting abilities of both starting pitchers hardly begins to describe Abbott’s superiority as a pitcher. Compared to Vasquez, he also does a much better job, for example, of limiting walks and home runs.
Abbott’s outlook today is particularly solid because he loves facing San Diego batters. They are 4-for-36 with zero extra-base hits, amounting to a .111 slugging rate, with him on the mound.
Not only do the Reds have the clearly better pitcher, but they have an in-form lineup and a clear matchup advantage.
MLB Pick: Reds First-Five -0.5 (-120) at BetOnline
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Boston Red Sox
Saturday, June 28, 2025 – 4:10 PM EDT at Fenway Park
Chris Bassitt in Boston
This game presents a great opportunity to invest in the road team because the Blue Jays are favored as slightly as they are because they are on the road, even though their starter today, Chris Bassitt, is at home in Boston.
In Boston’s venue, Bassitt boasts a 1.89 ERA in five career starts that total 33.1 innings. Bassitt’s success against Red Sox batters contributes to his comfort in their venue.
Collectively, they bat .200 and slug .247 with Bassitt on the mound. In 85 total at-bats against him, they have all of four doubles and zero other extra-base hits.
Sizzling Toronto
Despite being on a road trip, the Blue Jays have gained great form in general. They have won three of their last four games, with those wins coming by a total of 19 runs. They have scored 29 runs in their last four games combined.
Their lineup’s outlook is solid against Boston starter Lucas Giolito. Giolito seems to be in good form based on surface-level stats, but his 6.74 FIP in his last game is an indication that trouble lies ahead for him.
It’s only a matter of time until Giolito starts giving up a lot of runs, which will reflect his actually poor form. That time is now. Toronto batters reliably thrive against Giolito, against whom they collectively slug .515.
MLB Pick: Blue Jays First-Five ML (-117) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
