MLB Bet or Fade for June 21: Close Your Evening With a Parlay
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Rainman M.
- June 21, 2025
Top MLB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+175) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for tonight’s baseball action.
Four games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Orioles vs. Yankees, White Sox vs. Blue Jays, Royals vs. Padres, and Diamondbacks vs. Rockies.
For your best bets, I will recommend investing in Orioles-Yankees first-five under, White Sox run-line, and a Royals-Padres first-five under & Diamondbacks first-five money-line parlay.
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees
Saturday, June 21, 2025 – 01:05 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium
Underrated Zach Eflin
Baltimore starts Zach Eflin today.
It is easy to dismiss his chances today if you consider his last start. However, we must avoid recency bias. A starting pitcher today is not what he was last week.
Eflin’s ERA is high because he has had a few very bad starts, but let’s not forget that, before his last outing, he had allowed a combined total of four earned runs in his three previous starts.
Clarke Schmidt
New York starts Clarke Schmidt today.
Oddsmakers’ over/under for this game is ridiculously high in part because people overlook Schmidt. When folks think of New York’s pitchers, they think of Carlos Rodon and Max Fried. But Schmidt deserves respect, especially now. He enters today’s game having allowed zero runs in his last two starts.
Great Outlook for Both Pitchers
This game will feature a pitcher’s duel where both starters continue their success against the opposing lineup.
Eflin yields a .295 slugging rate against Yankees batters. Aaron Judge, for example, is 4-for-19 with ten strikeouts against Eflin. Baltimore batters won’t help Eflin out. They own a collective .329 slugging rate, with more strikeouts than hits, against Schmidt.
MLB Pick: Orioles/Yankees First-Five Under 5 (-110) at BetOnline
Chicago White Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Saturday, June 21, 2025 – 03:07 PM EDT at Rogers Centre
Overrated Toronto
Toronto is getting way too much respect from oddsmakers here. With their bullpen struggling, ranking eleven spots behind Chicago’s since June 13, and their lineup repeatedly insufficient, it’s impossible to justify the current odds.
This is a Blue Jays team that has lost five of its last seven games, with those five losses coming by a combined total of 26 runs. The White Sox just beat them yesterday by six runs.
Outlook for Jose Berrios
True, the Blue Jays trotted out a starting pitcher with bad stuff yesterday. But because he only lasted two innings, their bullpen is considerably worn out.
They will be in extra trouble today when their starter, Jose Berrios, fails to give them enough innings. White Sox batters are very familiar with him. They boast a collective .452 slugging rate against him.
Chicago’s Consistent Starter
Aaron Civale starts for the White Sox.
Civale has been a model of consistency. He has allowed two runs or fewer in each of his last five starts. His outlook is particularly strong today against a Toronto team that ranks 24th in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties.
By outpitching Berrios, he will help Chicago maximize its advantage in the later innings. And with Toronto being so overrated, we can get an extra run at a cheap price.
MLB Pick: White Sox +1.5 (-107) at BetOnline
Kansas City Royals vs. San Diego Padres
Saturday, June 21, 2025 – 07:15 PM EDT at Petco Park
Kansas City’s Extremely Impressive Starter
In MLB history, there is one pitcher who allowed one run or fewer in five or more innings in six of his first seven career outings. That one pitcher is Noah Cameron, today’s starter for the Royals.
Cameron relies on a good mix of pitches: his four-seam fastball, changeup, slider, curveball, and cutter. His greatest asset, however, is his precision. As heat maps show, he excels at locating pitches along the edges of the strike zone where batters have greater difficulty making decent contact.
He also keeps batters off-balance by changing velocity. There exists, for example, an unusually high eleven mph velocity differential between his changeup and his fastball.
His slider and curveball, which also boast unique movement, are his toughest pitches to hit, as evident in the sub-.170 slugging rate that they both yield.
The Well-Reputed Dylan Cease
San Diego counters with Dylan Cease.
Don’t let his last start deter you from trusting him. While he allowed a ton of runs, his FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) was 0.66, which shows that he actually pitched extremely well.
He was merely the victim of an unfortunately very high BABIP (batting average of balls in play). Expect luck to be on his side today.
Pitcher’s Duel
Neither starter will need much luck today.
Cameron has been top-caliber against every lineup except for the Yankees, who rank number one against his pitches from lefties. In contrast to the Yankees, San Diego ranks 24th with a .351 slugging rate against his pitches from lefties.
Cease’s outlook today is likewise solid because the Royals rank bottom-seven in slugging against his favorite pitches from righties. Kansas City’s lineup is also, as measured by slugging rate, easily at its worst against fly ball pitchers — Cease is heavily a fly ball-inducing pitcher.
Parlay Leg 1: Royals/Padres First-Five Under 4 (-120) at BetOnline
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies
Saturday, June 21, 2025 – 09:10 PM EDT at Coors Field
Merrill Kelly Deserves Your Trust
Arizona starts Merrill Kelly today, which would only concern bettors who stick to looking at the surface.
Kelly has allowed four runs in three of his last five starts, but his FIP was solid in four of those starts. On the surface, he thus appears inconsistent, but metrics show that he is consistently solid.
He is someone worth trusting in general, and he is worth investing in today because this is a great matchup for him. Colorado’s batters are helpless against Kelly. Collectively, their slugging rate is .193 with him on the mound. They have 20 more strikeouts than they do hits against him.
Clear Edge
With Kelly facing off against Colorado’s starter, Carson Palmquist, the Diamondbacks have a tremendous first-five edge. Palmquist is consistently bad, having allowed a combined total of ten earned runs in his last three starts while failing to complete five innings in any of them.
His outlook is particularly negative today against an Arizona lineup that ranks seventh with a .433 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from lefties.
Parlay Leg 2: Diamondbacks First-Five ML (-200) at BetOnline
The Parlay:
- Royals/Padres First-Five Under 4 (-120)
- Diamondbacks First-Five ML (-200)
MLB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+175) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
