Top MLB Pick: Giants vs. Athletics First-Five Under 5 (-118) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The sportsbooks have released their odds for tonight’s MLB action, and we’re taking a look at four games today:
- Tigers vs. Guardians
- White Sox vs. Rockies
- Rangers vs. Padres
- Giants vs. Athletics
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians
Saturday, July 05, 2025 – 7:15 PM EDT at Progressive Field
Detroit’s Bounce-Back Spot
Offensively, the Tigers have become solid and consistent. Before this season began, they had inspired doubt due to their poor run production last year and their lack of willingness to make significant moves in the offseason. But they knew what they were doing when they decided to maintain faith in their hitters.
Detroit now ranks fifth in runs per game because its batters have improved. Riley Greene, for example, improved his slugging rate from .479 last year to .540 this season.
Relevantly to today’s game, this group is reliable especially after it suffers a poor performance. For example, after scoring three runs on June 29, they amassed eleven runs on July 2. Likewise, they scored ten runs on June 28 after mustering one run on June 27. The list of examples continues.
Logan Allen vs. Tigers Hitters
Even regardless of this bounce-back situation, Detroit’s offense is in a great spot tonight because it faces Cleveland starter Logan Allen.
Five different Detroit batters slug at least .500 against him. Collectively, they bat .324 and slug .622 with him on the mound.
Cleveland’s Cold Streak
The Guardians are not in a spot in which they can keep pace with Detroit’s offense. They have lost eight games in a row.
Lack of offensive production has been a primary reason for their ongoing tendency to lose. During this eight-game span, they have been shut out four times. They scored two runs or fewer in six of those eight games.
Detroit’s Starter Today
Casey Mize starts for the Tigers tonight. Relative to Allen, who is 0-2 in his last two starts, Mize shows strong form. Mize is consistent: he has allowd two runs or fewer in five straight starts now.
Mize’s best quality is his precision. He induces a lot of soft contact because, as heat maps show, he consistently places pitches along the edges of the strike zone. Despite this placement tendency, he rarely walks batters.
Mize vs. Guardians Batters
Mize must be expected to continue thriving because he matches up so well against Guardians batters in two respects.
One, they rank 22nd with a .389 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties. Two, Mize is a heavy fly ball-inducing pitcher, and Cleveland bats .194 with a .314 slugging rate against this type of pitcher.
Detroit’s pitching advantage tonight is clearest with Mize, who will help secure the Tigers a lead through five innings.
MLB Pick: First-Five Tigers -0.5 (-108) at BetOnline
Chicago White Sox vs. Colorado Rockies
Saturday, July 05, 2025 – 9:10 PM EDT at Coors Field
Colorado’s Improved Lineup
When looking at Colorado’s hitting, you can’t confine yourself to season-long stats, because they easily misrepresent the current quality level of the Rockies’ lineup.
Colorado’s start to its season was historically bad, but the hitting in particular has gotten much better. This improvement is evident in the extent to which it now matches up well against White Sox starter Jonathan Cannon.
Since June, they rank sixth with a .466 slugging rate against his pitches from righties. Their success during this time span against these pitches in their road games shows that they are not simply benefitting from the hitter-friendly nature of their ballpark.
When posting the total for this game, oddsmakers do not account for this decisive matchup detail.
German Marquez vs. White Sox Batters
Chicago’s lineup will keep pace with Colorado because it loves facing Colorado’s starter today German Marquez. Four different White Sox batters hit at least .300 with Marquez on the mound. Three different ones slug at least .800 against him.
It is tempting to look at yesterday’s low-scoring game between these teams and to think that tonight’s game will also be low-scoring, but this will be one of many cases where variety takes shape and a high-scoring game follows a low-scoring one.
Because both bullpens have shown improvement lately, the starting pitcher matchup is most worth exploiting, which we can do with a first-five play.
MLB Pick: First-Five Over 6 (-102) at BetOnline
Texas Rangers vs. San Diego Padres
Saturday, July 05, 2025 – 9:40 PM EDT at Petco Park
Underrated Jack Leiter
Texas starts Jack Leiter today. Leiter’s ERA doesn’t look attractive, but it’s really just the product of two rough patches that he suffered. One took place in the beginning of May, and he most recently overcame the second.
He enters today’s game having allowed one run in six innings to Seattle in his last start.
Leiter vs. Padres Batters
Expect another strong performance from Leiter because he matches up well against San Diego’s batters. They rank 27th with a .368 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Stephen Kolek at Home
San Diego starts Stephen Kolek today. Bettors become eager to wager on the Rangers when they see Kolek’s home ERA.
But Kolek has only pitched three games at home, so the data sample is small. In his last home game, he yielded a high ERA, but his FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) was 1.48.
Now with a sub-2.00 FIP in his last two starts, he enters today’s game in strong form and with evidence that he has overcome his home struggles. He is clearly performing well and performing well at home.
Kolek vs. Rangers Batters
Kolek’s outlook tonight is especially strong because he matches up well against Texas’ lineup. The Rangers rank 27th with a .389 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
With both bullpens ranking top-five, the full-game under is the best play for this game.
MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (-115) at BetOnline
San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics
Saturday, July 05, 2025 – 10:05 PM EDT at Sutter Health Park
Both Lineups Dread The Matchup
Bettors are eager to go against Luis Severino, tonight’s starter for the Athletics, because of his last two starts. But he allowed a combined total of two earned runs in the three respective starts that followed a two-start rough patch. Expect him, therefore, to bounce back tonight.
This is a game in which both lineups suffer terrible track records against the starter that they face. Athletics batters are 3-for-41, with a .073 slugging rate, collectively against tonight’s well-reputed Giants starter Logan Webb.
San Francisco, collectively, bats .161 and slugs .218 against Severino. Both starters will dominate through five innings and for the extent of their respective outings.
MLB Pick: First-Five Under 5 (-118) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
