MLB Bet or Fade for July 26: Tonight’s Card Calls for Two Parlays
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Rainman M.
- July 26, 2025
With MLB action heating up, oddsmakers have released fresh MLB odds for tonight’s slate.
Four matchups stand out from a betting perspective: Diamondbacks vs. Pirates, Marlins vs. Brewers, Athletics vs. Astros, and Nationals vs. Twins, so read on for a breakdown of the spots I’m targeting!
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Saturday, July 26, 2025 – 6:40 PM EDT at PNC Park
The Improved Merrill Kelly
Arizona fans were ecstatic when, in the offseason, they acquired Corbin Burnes. Their excitement might reflect a lack of appreciation for the persistent quality in their starting rotation, which is reflected by the improvement of today’s starter, Merrill Kelly.
After April 3, Kelly is yielding a 2.79 ERA with a 0.97 WHIP. His cutter, which remains one of his favorite pitches, has seen a massive improvement. Whereas it yielded a .500 slugging rate last season, batters this year are slugging .278 against hit. Its movement this year helps whiff and put away batters at a higher rate.
Overall, he is striking out a batter more per innings than he did last year. With his growth as a pitcher, he would make an attractive trade piece if rumors are true and Arizona does want to trade him. He’ll surely be extra motivated to improve his options by performing well.
Immense Starting Pitcher Advantage
With Kelly facing off against today’s Pirates starter, Andrew Heaney, Arizona has a tremendous edge.
Kelly enjoys solid form, having allowed a combined total of four runs in his last three starts. He is in great shape to continue thriving in Pittsburgh, where he is 3-0 with a 3.18 ERA in three career starts.
Collectively, Pirates hitters bat .196 and slug .304 against him. Conversely, Diamondbacks batters collectively slug .434 against Heaney.
They already thrive against a pitcher who is struggling monumentally: Heaney has yielded an ERA of 12.00 or higher in three straight starts. Arizona thus gets a weak version of a pitcher whom it already likes to face.
Parlay Leg 1: 1st 5 – Diamondbacks ML (-145)
Washington Nationals vs. Minnesota Twins
Saturday, July 26, 2025 – 7:10 PM EDT at Target Field
Minnesota’s Sizzling Starter
Minnesota starter Joe Ryan is enjoying by far the best season in his career. His ERA is almost 1.00 lower than it was in any of his previous seasons.
Signs of his future elite status existed in earlier years. He added velocity, altered his repertoire, and used these changes to put together some fantastic stretches of play. Injuries impeded his development, but he is healthy now and exhibits tremendous form.
In his last five starts, he has allowed a combined total of five runs. Most recently, he is 2-0 in his last two starts, in which he allowed a combined total of two runs.
Ryan vs. Nationals Batters
While Ryan’s competition has been pretty soft, how could anyone characterize the challenge that Washington’s lineup poses as anything but soft?
The Nationals’ cold streak brings them further down into the bottom half in run production. They’ve scored zero runs in their last two games.
They are in no shape to improve upon their ranking of 24th, with a .389 slugging rate, against Ryan’s favorite pitches from righties.
Homesick Washington
Washington starter Mitchell Parker is an auto-fade on the road. While his home ERA isn’t great to begin with at 3.92, he yields a 6.46 ERA away from home.
Parker has been poor in every road game except when a fortunately low BABIP (batting average of balls in play) enabled him to succeed in pathetic Pittsburgh.
Minnesota won’t even have to score much to lead through five innings.
Parlay Leg 2: 1st 5 – Twins ML (-250)
The First Parlay
- 1st 5 – Diamondbacks ML (-145)
- 1st 5 – Twins ML (-250)
Miami Marlins vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Saturday, July 26, 2025 – 7:10 PM EDT American Family Field
Janson Junk’s Bounce-Back Opportunity
Today’s Miami starter, Janson Junk, is primed to bounce back from his last start. He always bounces back: after allowing four runs on June 9, he threw 5.2 shutout innings in his following start. More recently, he allowed two runs in six innings on July 2 after he had surrendered five runs in his previous start.
As evident in his FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding), Junk didn’t even perform poorly in his last start. His FIP on the season is .79 lower than his ERA and suggests that he is, in fact, due to experience statistical progression.
His solid ERA already shows that he is having a career-best year, which is especially a product of his amazing command. Per nine innings, he is allowing 0.81 walks and 0.16 home runs.
Even if Junk weren’t in a bounce-back spot, his outlook is solid against a Milwaukee lineup that ranks 26th with a .372 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
Miami’s Spurious Improvement
While the Marlins are winning games, the reality is that they have eluded the consequences of immense vulnerabilities that they continue to exhibit.
Since the second half of the season began, they are slugging .258 against Milwaukee starter Jose Quintana‘s pitches from lefties.
Quintana gets a much softer test now after facing the Dodgers twice in a row. He’s ready to make Miami’s lineup pay in what will be a good pitcher’s duel.
Parlay Leg 1: 1st 5 – Under 4.5 (-105)
Athletics vs. Houston Astros
Saturday, July 26, 2025 – 7:10 PM EDT at Daikin Park
Athletics’ Let-Down Spot
The Athletics represent an alluring investment after they exploded for 15 runs yesterday, but history indicates that they will fall back down to Earth. They are 2-7 in the game following a win in which they scored eight or more runs.
Houston’s starter, Hunter Brown, who owns the tenth-best ERA right now, is coming off a start in which he yielded a 1.84 FIP but allowed a lot of runs because an unfortunately high BABIP victimized him.
One can’t expect Brown to be unfortunate again tonight. Instead, expect him to continue his year-long dominance against a lineup in a major down spot.
Houston As a Full-Game Play
The Astros merit a full-game investment because their starting pitcher and their bullpen will prove superior tonight.
For the Athletics, Jacob Lopez starts. Houston’s lineup ranks third with a .453 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from lefties.
Moreover, Houston’s bullpen ranks 25 spots ahead of that of the A’s. Its top relievers are fresh after yesterday’s blowout. They will secure the win for what is a prideful Astros squad.
Parlay Leg 2: Astros ML (-176)
The Second Parlay
- Marlins-Brewers 1st 5 – Under 4.5 (-105)
- Astros ML (-176)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
