MLB Bet or Fade for July 19: Today’s Team Totals Are Worth Attacking
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Rainman M.
- July 19, 2025
With betting markets heating up after the All-Star break, the sportsbooks have released their betting odds for today’s MLB games.
Let’s dive into four MLB matchups with great value: Angels vs. Phillies, White Sox vs. Pirates, Cardinals vs. Diamondbacks, and Astros vs. Mariners.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Saturday, July 19, 2025 – 6:05 PM EDT at Citizens Bank Park
The Kikuchi Myth
Yusei Kikuchi starts for the Angels today. Kikuchi’s ERA this year has caused bettors to gain a positive perception of him. However, he is falling back down to Earth. In his last two starts, he has allowed a combined total of seven earned runs in 10.2 innings. His second-to-last opponent, Texas, ranks 28th in slugging against his favorite pitches from lefties but still thrived against him.
Looking at Kikuchi’s pitches, his current decline is no surprise. Like last year, in which his ERA was 4.05, he focuses on a fastball-slider combo.
While this year, he is emphasizing his slider much more heavily after it was his best pitch last year, batters this year are having drastically more success against it as they benefit from seeing it more often.
Outlook for Phillies’ Batters
The Phillies will prolong Kikuchi’s misery today. They match up well against him, ranking fourth with a .455 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from lefties.
In addition to facing a favorable matchup in the initial innings, they will get to face the Angels’ terrible bullpen for several innings after Kikuchi leaves the game. As one of three bullpens that yields an ERA of over 5.00, Los Angeles’ bullpen ranks 28th.
Back the Phillies Team Total Over 4.5, currently priced at -130 at BetOnline.
Chicago White Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Saturday, July 19, 2025 – 6:40 PM EDT at PNC Park
Respecting Chicago’s Starter
Adrian Houser starts for the White Sox today. Given the level of success that Houser has enjoyed this season, it feels absurd that the White Sox are clear underdogs in Pittsburgh. They are the White Sox, though, and Houser remains an underrated pitcher to whose success oddsmakers are slow to adjust.
Some conspiracy-driven bettors might be inclined to think: “Houser is thriving, and yet he is an underdog; this must be a trap, which means that he will have a bad start today.”
Was it a trap when, in Houser’s last start, his White Sox were listed at +120 and he allowed one run in seven innings? How about when, before he locked down the Rockies in their venue, his Sox were listed at +140 and he threw seven shutout innings?
Respect for Houser, who has allowed a combined total of one earned run in his last three starts, who has held seven of his nine opponents to two runs or fewer, and who has held all of his opponents to three runs or fewer, is long overdue.
White Sox Pitching vs. Pirates Batters
Houser will continue flourishing today, as he faces a Pittsburgh lineup that ranks 29th with a .355 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
With Chicago’s top relievers fresh, including multiple guys with an ERA of 2.15 or better, the Pirates team total under, at -135, is sure to hit.
Because the White Sox match up terribly against Pittsburgh starter Mike Burrows, the full-game under is worth a look, but Burrows’ track record against lineups that match up poorly against him makes him unreliable. It’s best to confine ourselves to trusting Chicago’s pitching staff.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Saturday, July 19, 2025 – 7:15 PM EDT at Chase Field
Arizona’s Starter at Home
Ryne Nelson starts for the Diamondbacks tonight; his home ERA makes his team look like an auto-play tonight. However, all of his home starts but one came against teams that rank 20th or worse against what is easily his favorite pitch, his fastball, from righties.
In the one exception, he gave up two runs in just 4.1 innings to a Mets team that ranks eighth against his favorite pitch from righties. His ERA in that start against the Mets was 4.15, which aligns with his home ERA last year.
When he faces teams that hit his favorite pitch from righties well, then his home ERA will be about as bad as it was last year. This decline will be significant, and his opponent tonight is significantly better against his favorite pitch from righties than his other opponents besides the Mets.
St. Louis ranks tenth with a .449 slugging rate against the fastball from righties.
Team Total Play
Ranking 27th, Arizona’s bullpen is one of the worst. It can maybe survive when its top relievers are fresh and when its starter lasts a lot of innings, but Nelson won’t last long.
So, one catastrophe will lead to another for the Diamondbacks’ pitching staff tonight. After handling Nelson, the Cardinals will get several innings against Arizona relievers. Take the Cardinals Team Total Over at +100.
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners
Saturday, July 19, 2025 – 9:40 PM EDT at T-Mobile Park
Lance McCullers’ Road ERA
There exists an insane disparity between Houston starter Lance McCullers’ home ERA and his road ERA. This disparity is unsustainable. It is only a matter of time until the right opponent comes along to erode the disparity.
McCullers’ backers will insist that his last opponent, the mighty Dodgers, were the opponent to hit McCullers hard in their own venue. But the Dodgers are not mighty because of how they were playing when McCullers faced them — they were suffering a terrible cold stretch.
In two of his other road starts, he got to face the Pirates and White Sox, who both rank bottom four against his favorite pitches from righties.
His other road start came against a Texas team that made hard contact on almost half of his pitches but incurred the misfortune of mustering a low BABIP (batting average of balls in play).
Mariners’ Lineup Today
I like a Seattle lineup in this game that ranks sixth with a .413 slugging rate against McCullers’ favorite pitches from righties.
Because they match up well against him, the Mariners thrive when he’s on the mound. Collectively, they slug .452 when facing McCullers.
They will get to see a lot of Houston’s bullpen today, against which they amassed five runs in two innings yesterday. While Houston has a high-ranking bullpen, the limitations of its depth will appear blatant today, as they will be exacerbated by McCullers’ limited endurance.
Logan Evans’ Great Spot
Seattle starts Logan Evans tonight. As someone who always thrives after a tough outing, he is in a great bounce-back spot tonight. In his four starts that directly followed one in which he allowed multiple runs, he allowed a combined total of two earned runs.
With Seattle’s best relievers fresh, they will win this game against a Houston team whose one-run output yesterday signifies a continuation of its hitting woes that it experienced at the end of the first half.
Our MLB Best Bets
Saturday’s MLB slate offers plenty of betting value. The Phillies are positioned to exploit Kikuchi and a weak Angels bullpen, while Adrian Houser continues to be undervalued despite dominant outings for the White Sox. The Cardinals draw a favorable matchup against Ryne Nelson and a struggling Arizona bullpen, and the Mariners are well-equipped to expose the illusion of Lance McCullers’ road success, which has come against soft opponents and isn’t built to last.
Back these four plays with confidence, and be sure to monitor line movement and our predictions leading up to first pitch. Good luck!
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
