MLB Bet or Fade for July 12: Trust Wheeler With Your Life
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Rainman M.
- July 12, 2025
Today’s Top Pick
- Phillies First-Five ML (-180)
- Astros First-Five ML (-115)
MLB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+191) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The sportsbooks have released their betting odds for the baseball games taking place both during the day and tonight, and four games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in:
- Marlins vs. Orioles
- Mets vs. Royals
- Phillies vs. Padres
- Rangers vs. Astros
Let’s take a look!
Miami Marlins vs. Baltimore Orioles
Saturday, July 12, 2025 – 4:05 PM EDT at Camden Yards
A Pile of Junk
Janson Junk starts for the Marlins today. If you look at Junk’s last two starts, then he looks like he might be worth investing in, but we have to consider the context of each of those starts.
His last start came against a Cincinnati lineup that, before encountering Junk, had scored a combined total of two runs in its previous two games. Minnesota, his second-to-last opponent, was coming off two consecutive shutout losses when it encountered Junk.
Junk’s hot streak is, therefore, not something that should impress us. He has benefited from facing cold lineups.
Baltimore’s Sizzling Lineup
In contrast to Junk’s last two opponents, the Orioles are playing well now. Their offense has accumulated a combined total of twelve runs in its last two games.
Baltimore’s outlook remains strong on offense today because of how well its lineup matches up against Junk. Against Junk’s favorite pitches from righties, the Orioles rank fifth with a .451 slugging rate.
Miami’s Lineup Will Keep Pace
The Marlins get to face Baltimore starter Trevor Rogers.
They could not be more familiar with Rogers, whom they drafted in 2017. Rogers played for the Marlins from 2020 until near the end of last season.
As he did in Miami, he still relies on a fastball-changeup-sinker-slider combo. The Marlins will know what to expect from him.
Full-Game Play
I like the full-game over for this game because both bullpens are worth fading.
Miami ranks 20th and Baltimore ranks 25th. So, expect runs to continue to accumulate even when both starters leave the game.
MLB Pick: Over 9 (-101) at BetOnline
New York Mets vs. Kansas City Royals
Saturday, July 12, 2025 – 4:10 PM EDT at Kauffman Stadium
Fade New York’s Starter
Frankie Montas starts for the Mets tonight, and he enters today’s game in abysmal form: he has allowed a combined total of ten earned runs in his last two starts.
It’s not like he’s simply faced soft competition. Two starts ago, he was slammed by the lowly Pirates, who rank dead last in runs per game.
Kansas City’s Underrated Starter
The Royals are home underdogs because Frankie Montas has a stronger reputation than their starter today, Michael Lorenzen.
But, in addition to Montas’ form making him distant from his well-reputed self, Lorenzen is going to look much better than usual. He is coming off a start in which he threw seven shutout innings in Arizona. He promises to maintain his form against a Mets lineup whose batters struggle mightily against him.
With Lorenzen on the mound, Pete Alonso is 2-for-10, Francisco Lindor 3-for-15, Jeff McNeil 0-for-8, Brandon Nimmo 2-for-13, and Juan Soto 1-for-10. Collectively, the Mets bat .156 and slug .266 when facing Lorenzen.
Full-Game Play
I like the Royals for the full game because their bullpen can be trusted to secure their lead. Kansas City’s bullpen ranks ninth, which is five spots ahead of New York’s.
MLB Pick: Royals ML (+111) at BetOnline
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres
Saturday, July 12, 2025 – 7:35 PM EDT at Petco Park
Philadelphia’s Clear Pitching Advantage
The Phillies start Zack Wheeler tonight, who has been baseball’s best pitcher. Wheeler enters tonight’s game having allowed a combined total of one earned run in his last four starts. One of his recent victims was San Diego, against whose lineup he threw eight shutout innings.
Pitching in San Diego’s venue tonight will not faze him. In his career, he is 2-0 with a 1.57 ERA in four career starts in Petco Park.
Overall, the Padres bat .174 and slug .240 with him on the mound.
He will easily outshine San Diego starter Yu Darvish, who is still finding his footing. Darvish’s last start was his first start of the season. In it, he allowed two earned runs in 3.2 innings against Arizona.
Parlay Leg 1: Phillies First-Five ML (-180) at BetOnline
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros
Saturday, July 12, 2025 – 7:35 PM EDT at Daikin Park
Framber Valdez Loves Houston
The Astros start Framber Valdez tonight. Valdez’s most recent start gives a negative impression of him that should not deter us from trusting him. In it, he allowed four earned runs in Dodger Stadium.
Of course, he faces a softer challenge tonight. But it’s also critical to note that he was on the road, where he has been a completely different pitcher than he is in Houston. Whereas his away ERA is 4.02, it is 1.83 at home.
He enters tonight’s game having allowed zero runs in either of his last two starts, which took place against two top-ten lineups, the Cubs’ and the Phillies’, respectively.
Valdez vs. Rangers Batters
Even regardless of location, Valdez matches up superbly well against Texas’ lineup. The Rangers rank dead last with a .255 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from lefties.
When Valdez pitched in Texas on May 18, the Rangers saw a weaker version of him because he was pitching on the road. He allowed three runs in seven innings, yet his 1.23 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) shows that he truly performed excellently.
Expect a fantastic performance from him tonight in Houston.
Declining Jacob deGrom
The Rangers start Jacob deGrom tonight. Texas’ starter has an FIP that is nearly a full 1.00 worse than his ERA. He is therefore due to experience regression.
This regression is already in place: he allowed two runs in his penultimate start before allowing three runs in five innings in his last start. Valdez will be too good for deGrom to match.
Parlay Leg 2: Astros First-Five ML (-115) at BetOnline
The Parlay
- Phillies First-Five ML (-180)
- Astros First-Five ML (-115)
MLB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+191) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
