MLB Bet or Fade for August 16: Let’s Profit Astronomically Tonight
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Rainman M.
- August 16, 2025
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for the games today.
Four, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Orioles vs. Astros, Braves vs. Guardians, Yankees vs. Cardinals, and Diamondbacks vs. Rockies.
For your Best Bets, I will recommend investments at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review) in the Astros run-line, Guardians money-line, Yankees-Cardinals first-five under, and Diamondbacks-Rockies first-five under.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Houston Astros
Saturday, August 16, 2025 – 07:10 PM EDT at Daikin Park
A Cascade of Problems
Cade Povich starts for Baltimore tonight.
Povich is someone who will occasionally have success. But he struggles to succeed consistently.
He is coming off one of those rare, successful starts. It is tempting to back a pitcher off such a start, but Povich’s history dictates otherwise.
For example, after holding Seattle to two runs on June 4, he yielded five to Detroit in his following start. Expect a similar decline from him today.
Povich vs. Astros Batters
The matchup dictates that, regardless of the situation, Houston must be expected to hit Povich hard.
The Astros rank second with a .471 slugging rate against Povich’s pitches from lefties.
This matchup detail makes sense of the promising track record that they’ve constructed against him. In 18 at-bats against him, they’re batting .389 and slugging .944.
Summer of Jason
Jason Alexander starts for the Astros tonight.
Alexander is changing the narrative for himself. He is transforming from a pitcher whose spot in the MLB was anything but certain into a pitcher who is thriving against MLB teams.
He enters tonight’s game having allowed zero runs in his last two starts. In his last one, he threw six shutout innings in Yankee Stadium.
Alexander vs. Orioles Batters
Baltimore’s lineup has mostly been anemic in the second half of the season. It has been disappointing throughout this entire year relative to what it accomplished last year.
Matchup details promise another disappointment from them tonight. They rank 24th with a .375 slugging rate against Alexander’s favorite pitches from righties.
Takeaway
With Houston’s top relievers fresh and its bullpen ranking 19 spots ahead of Baltimore’s, the Astros merit a full-game investment.
I find their moneyline a bit expensive, so you can parlay them with another solid favorite. As I will do, you can also take them on the run-line at plus money. Nearly all of Houston’s wins since the All-Star Break have come by two or more runs, making the run-line an especially alluring option at this price.
Atlanta Braves vs. Cleveland Guardians
Saturday, August 16, 2025 – 01:40 PM EDT at Progressive Field
Joey Wince
Atlanta starter Joey Wentz regularly makes his backers wince because he struggles to induce soft contact.
Batters reliably hit him hard. As the heat maps show, he has a terrible tendency to leave pitches in the more dangerous, middle parts of the strike zone. He also walks over four batters per nine innings.
He obviously has to throw strikes to avoid walking too many batters. This necessity enables batters to be more selective.
Wentz vs. Guardians Batters
Cleveland’s lineup enters tonight’s game with a solid track record against Wentz. Collectively, the Guardians bat .283 and slug .600 against him.
Four different batters slug over .900 with him on the mound. But other guys like Steven Kwan also hit him very well.
Slated to Succeed
Slade Cecconi starts for Cleveland tonight.
Cecconi is in a great bounce-back spot after giving up multiple home runs in his previous start. History shows that he reliably buckles down after such a catastrophe.
He held his opponent to two runs in each of the three respective starts that followed one in which he surrendered multiple home runs.
Cecconi vs. Braves Batters
Even if Cecconi weren’t in a strong spot tonight, his outlook would still be solid because he matches up superbly against Atlanta’s lineup.
The Braves rank 28th with a .383 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
Takeaway
Cleveland’s bullpen is fresh and solid. It ranks sixth, ten spots ahead of Atlanta’s, and has its best relievers available.
Therefore, the Guardians are worth a full-game play.
New York Yankees vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Saturday, August 16, 2025 – 07:15 PM EDT at Busch Stadium
Max Fried’s Satisfaction
New York starts Max Fried tonight.
Fried always leaves St. Louis’ venue satisfied. In his career in Busch Stadium, he is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in 13.2 innings.
Active Cardinals batters haven’t seen much of him, but they’ve struggled so far against him, with a .182 BA and .273 slugging rate in 22 at-bats.
They slug .372 against his favorite pitches from righties, which is a very bad slugging rate, especially when you consider that they’re mostly facing pitchers who throw inferior versions of the pitches that Fried does.
Sonny Skies for Sonny Gray
St. Louis starts Sonny Gray tonight.
He is just the guy this team needs to get it out of its ongoing rut, a three-game losing streak that has been precipitated mainly by the coldness of its lineup.
Gray has been hot, having most recently limited both the mighty Dodgers and Cubs to one run in a combined total of 14 innings.
On the season, his FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) is nearly 1.00 better than his ERA. This disparity suggests statistical progression, which is what he is currently experiencing.
Gray vs. Yankees Batters
Gray’s outlook against New York’s lineup is solid no matter what. Collectively, the Yankees bat .221 and slug .309 against him.
He will help ensure that the game stays low-scoring through five innings.
Best Bet: Yankees-Cardinals first-five under 4 at -120 with BetOnline
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Colorado Rockies
Saturday, August 16, 2025 – 08:10 PM EDT at Coors Field
Ryne Nelson’s Spot
Arizona starts Ryne Nelson tonight.
Nelson is primed to bounce back after his last outing. In the two respective starts that followed one in which he allowed over two runs, he shut out San Diego and allowed one run to St. Louis.
His last start was, in any case, actually a good one in the sense that his FIP was low. He was merely victimized by an unfortunately high BABIP (batting average of balls in play).
Before that start, he had allowed a combined total of four runs in his previous four starts. His strong FIP in his last start indicates that his form is still solid.
A New Man
Chase Dollander starts for Colorado tonight.
After a stint in the minors, he returned to MLB action in his last start in which he limited the Cardinals to one run in five innings in their venue.
It is common for pitchers to use lower-level competition to work out problems that they have and then return to the MLB level. Dollander looks like a new, much better man now.
Indeed, he has great stuff, including:
- A high-velocity fastball that averaged 98.5 mph in his last start.
- A knee-buckling curveball.
- Other pitches that likewise help keep batters off-balance.
The Total
Given Nelson’s strong form and bounce-back spot and given Dollander’s improvement, all of which oddsmakers do not account for with their posted total, the over/under for this game is much too high.
Both bullpens are terrible, though, so let’s stick to a first-five play.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
