MLB Bet or Fade for August 7: Let’s Swim with the Marlins Tonight
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Rainman M.
- August 7, 2025
Don’t let the short Thursday slate fool you—we’ve scoured the MLB odds from top sportsbooks to deliver the sharpest value bets of the day.
Three games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: White Sox vs. Mariners, Reds vs. Pirates, and Marlins vs. Braves.
Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners
Thursday, August 07, 2025 – 04:10 PM EDT at T-Mobile Park
Underrated Logan Gilbert
Seattle starts Logan Gilbert today. If you look at his ERA this season, then he seems to have regressed relative to last year.
However, his fantastic 2.75 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) shows that he has progressed.
In particular, he does a vastly better job of inducing strikeouts. Strikeouts are the safest way to get a batter out because they preclude the pitcher’s teammates from having to do any work and they preclude the batter from benefiting from any fortunate location in which a batted ball could land.
Above all, batters struggle to touch his split-finger with its unusual movement and his hard slider.
Gilbert’s Form and Matchup
Gilbert’s last start creates a misleading impression of his form. He allowed some runs, but his 1.28 FIP shows how well he truly performed and attests to the current quality of his form.
With his strong form, he is ready to take advantage of what is a great matchup for him.
Chicago ranks 28th with a .368 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
The Mariners are hot right now: they enter today’s game with a three-game winning streak during which they scored five, eight, and eight runs, respectively.
During this streak they are slugging .600 against the favorite pitches from righties of today’s White Sox starter, Shane Smith.
Whereas Seattle’s form is great, Smith enters today’s game with an FIP of over 7.00 in each of his last three starts.
With the higher-ranked bullpen, Seattle is worth a full-game play.
Parlay Leg 1: Mariners ML (-268) at BetOnline
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Thursday, August 07, 2025 – 06:40 PM EDT at PNC Park
Cincinnati’s Pitching
I like the first-five under and the Reds run-line for this game because the Reds will shut down Pittsburgh’s offense.
Today’s Cincinnati starter Brady Singer does have a high ERA, but that is because he experienced struggles that are not relevant to his current form.
Currently, Singer’s form is solid: he enters today’s game having allowed a total of one run in his last two starts, which totaled 13.1 innings.
Indeed, his latest starts are much more representative of the Singer who built a good reputation for himself as a Kansas City Royal in the extended times where his strong command maximized the quality of his favorite pitches.
With Cincinnati’s bullpen significantly fresher than Pittsburgh’s because the latter’s was involved in a close game yesterday where its starter lasted all of 4.2 innings, the Reds are worth a full-game play.
First-Five Play
Cincinnati is the better play for the full-game, but the first-five under is also worth playing in this game because the venerable Paul Skenes starts for Pittsburgh.
After his last start, Skenes enjoys a great bounce-back spot today.
He allowed a combined total of one run in the two starts that respectively followed one in which he allowed four runs or more.
This trend might be silly to articulate because its complexity obscures how reliably solid he is overall: he has allowed fewer than three runs in 19 of his 23 starts this year.
His outlook against Cincinnati’s lineup is particularly strong because the Reds, collectively, bat .179 and slug .256 against him.
The low scoring total for this game will make it, at worst, a close one in which the Reds’ full-game run-line will easily hit even if Pittsburgh were to lead 1-0 through five innings in what will be a super low-scoring start to the game.
Parlay Leg 2: Reds +1.5 (-150) at BetOnline
The Parlay
- Mariners ML (-268)
- Reds RL (-150)
If you’re hunting for value, don’t overlook the Reds-Pirates First-Five Under 3.5 at +102—this one’s worth a shot.
Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves
Thursday, August 07, 2025 – 07:15 PM EDT at Truist Park
Misleading Statistic
If you’ve seen the Atlanta lineup’s batting numbers against today’s Marlins starter Eury Perez, then you might be tempted to invest in Atlanta.
However, Atlanta owes its success against Perez to one single start in which Perez limited its hard contact and succeeded in generating soft contact but was the victim of an unfortunately high BABIP (batting average of balls in play).
While Perez’s ERA in that start against Atlanta was high, his 1.83 FIP shows how well he truly performed and fortifies his outlook today.
Indeed, Perez must be expected to thrive against a Braves lineup that ranks 28th with a .367 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
Perez’s Form
Perez is in fantastic form right now, having held two of baseball’s top-four producing lineups to a combined total of one run in his last two starts.
More extensively, Perez has allowed a combined total of four runs in his last six starts.
He certainly enjoys the form with which to maximize his matchup advantage against Atlanta batters.
Fading Carlos Carrasco
Miami has a tremendous starting pitcher advantage with Perez going against Atlanta’s Carlos Carrasco.
Carrasco has only succeeded this year against ice-cold lineups. His 5.68 ERA tells the whole story of a washed-up pseudo-professional whose pitches batters regularly hit hard.
His outlook is particularly poor against a Miami lineup that is at its best against pitchers who induce more fly balls. Expect the Marlins to build off their most recent six-run output.
Whereas Carrasco has proven to be washed-up and very distant from the version of himself from previous years that had no problem avoiding the dreaded demotion to Triple-A, Perez is a 22-year-old who has really found his footing in professional baseball and who will ensure that his team leads through five innings today.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
