MLB Bet or Fade August 4: It’s a Great Night for Favorites
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Rainman M.
- August 4, 2025
Monday’s MLB slate is stacked with 13 games, but four matchups stand out for betting value at the top sportsbooks: Guardians-Mets, Brewers-Braves, Yankees-Rangers, and Cardinals-Dodgers.
Before placing your bets, let’s take a closer look at the latest MLB odds.
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Mets
Monday, August 04, 2025 – 07:10 PM EDT at Citi Field
Slade Cecconi’s Upcoming Regression
Cleveland starts Slade Cecconi tonight. When you look at Cecconi’s ERA, he doesn’t seem to be performing too poorly.
However, it is necessary to examine underlying metrics in order to acquire a more accurate picture.
Cecconi’s FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) is 4.61, which is about .80 higher than his ERA. This ERA-FIP disparity suggests that Cecconi is slated to experience statistical regression.
Until now, he has benefited from a low BABIP (batting average of balls in play) that belies the awfully worrying extent to which he yields medium and hard contact. His soft contact rate is a negligible 7.5 percent.
Moreover, he has been fortunate to have a low strand rate.
These pieces of fortune cannot continue forever. One must expect him to struggle mightily in the right matchup.
Cecconi vs. Mets Batters
Tonight’s game features the right matchup for New York.
The Mets are one of ten teams to slug over .430 against Cecconi’s favorite pitches from righties.
Five different Mets batters already bat and slug at least .500 against him. While the batter-versus-pitcher data sample is very small, New York’s success against his pitches suggests that they will continue to thrive against him.
New York’s Consistent Starter
Sean Manaea, tonight’s starter for the Mets, is a paragon of consistency.
Manaea allowed one run in each of his four starts this year.
He does a great job of accruing strikeouts, reducing hard contact, avoiding walks, and limiting hits in general. With everything that he does so consistently well, it is right of oddsmakers to favor the Mets so heavily tonight.
Expect Manaea’s success to continue against a Cleveland lineup that ranks 28th with a .343 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from lefties.
Given New York’s strong starting pitcher advantage, let’s add the chalky Mets first-five moneyline to our parlay.
Parlay Leg 1: Mets First-Five ML (-170) at BetOnline
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves
Monday, August 04, 2025 – 07:15 PM EDT at Truist Park
Major Difference in Form
The starting pitchers tonight, Quinn Priester for Milwaukee and Erick Fedde for Atlanta, are on two completely different levels right now.
Priester has limited each of his last four opponents to two runs or fewer.
It’s not like he’s simply faced easy opponents. Among his victims are Cub and Dodger lineups that rank top-three in runs per game.
Conversely, Fedde has yielded an ERA of over 12.00 in four of his last six starts. His ERA was 5.79 or higher in all six starts.
His FIP substantiates this apparent indication of his struggles. He is allowing a ridiculous amount of hard contact — at least 50 percent of his pitches of his pitches yielded hard contact in five of his last six games. The hard contact rate was over 45 percent in all six games.
Whereas Priester is keeping the ball on the ground and avoiding trouble, opposing batters are slamming Fedde and often producing home runs as a result.
Whereas Priester has thrived against the hardest competition, Fedde has struggled against weaker lineups than the fourth-ranked one that he’ll encounter tonight. Milwaukee’s batters will ensure that their team leads through five innings.
Parlay Leg 2: Brewers First-Five ML (-130) at BetOnline
- Mets First-Five ML (-170)
- Brewers First-Five ML (-130)
New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers
Monday, August 04, 2025 – 08:05 PM EDT at Globe Life Field
Patrick Corbin’s Misleading Recent Starts
Texas starts Patrick Corbin tonight. If you look at his most recent starts, then you might see a promising underdog in Texas.
But the fact is that Corbin has faced lineups that, as measured by run production, are mediocre at best, except for the Detroit lineup that he caught during an atrocious slump.
It is well-known that Corbin has grown immensely distant from the version of himself who was solid in 2019. Since then, his ERA every year has been poor.
It’s not like he’s made significant changes to his repertoire that could lead him to become a better pitcher. It’s not like he improved the velocity or spin of his pitches.
While he is favoring his cutter more, opponents in July bat .381 and slugged .476 against it
There is no good reason to think that he’s morphed back into a respectable pitcher.
“New York, New York”
Corbin’s run of good starts ends tonight against a real opponent, a New York lineup that ranks second in runs per game.
The Yankees already, in fact, have constructed a solid track record against Corbin. Collectively, they bat .287 and slug .500 against him.
Conversely, Max Fried for the Yankees owns a solid outlook tonight. Having gotten back on track in his last start, he will continue succeeding against a Texas lineup that ranks second-to-last with a .349 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from lefties.
By building off his last start, Fried will help his Yankees lead through five innings.
Parlay Leg 1: Yankees First-Five ML (-152) at BetOnline
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Monday, August 04, 2025 – 10:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
Not So Sonny Weather
Today’s St. Louis starter Sonny Gray is struggling. He has yielded an ERA of over 5.00 in each of his last three starts.
This is not the form that a pitcher wants to exhibit before facing a mega-talented Dodgers lineup that already owns a solid track record against him.
Collectively, the Dodgers bat .296 and slug .504 with Gray on the mound.
Tyler Glasnow Scares St. Louis
Conversely, today’s Dodgers starter Tyler Glasnow owns a terrific outlook.
St. Louis has managed zero hits against him. While the data sample is small (22 at-bats), the Cardinals match up poorly against him.
They rank 23rd with a .397 slugging rate against his pitches from righties, suggesting that they will continue to struggle against him.
Indeed, they are struggling against every challenging pitcher.
Most recently, they did well against San Diego’s subpar starter Randy Vasquez.
Setting aside that one game, they’ve scored a combined total of four runs in their last four games.
They lack the firepower to handle a good pitcher like Glasnow — who has been excellent at home with his 2.16 home ERA — who will easily outperform Gray and help his team lead through five innings.
Parlay Leg 2: Dodgers First-Five ML (-180) at BetOnline
The Parlay
- Yankees First-Five ML (-152)
- Dodgers First-Five ML (-180)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
