MLB Bet or Fade for August 21: Underrated Pitchers Duel in Tampa Bay
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Rainman M.
- August 21, 2025
Thursday’s MLB slate features 9 games, but three games stand out as prime betting opportunities at top sportsbooks: Astros vs. Orioles, Red Sox vs. Yankees, and Cardinals vs. Rays.
Let’s break down the latest MLB odds before you place your bets.
Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles
Thursday, August 21, 2025 – 07:15 PM EDT at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Houston’s Hot Pitcher
The Astros start Jason Alexander tonight. Before this season, Alexander had last pitched in the majors in 2022.
This season, his return to professional baseball was quite rocky.
His first four appearances weren’t even starts. In the last of those four appearances, he allowed nine runs in 2.1 innings.
It took him until the end of July to figure things out. Since then, he’s allowed a combined total of four runs in his last four starts.
One key for him has been to keep the ball on the ground at a higher rate.
Alexander vs. Orioles Batters
Alexander’s outlook tonight is solid because he matches up superbly against Baltimore batters.
They rank 27th with a .350 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from lefties.
There was a stretch of games, recently, in which they seemed to be replicating their hitting prowess from last year. But they scored four runs in eleven innings in their last game, indicating that they have cooled off.
Alexander poses a particularly tough challenge for them especially now that they’ve lost their hotness.
Houston, We Have a Problem
I like the “under” for this game also because Houston can’t hit anything right now.
The Astros, in their last four games, have scored zero, zero, zero, and two runs, respectively. It’s impossible for any team to keep failing to score a single run. Now that the Astros scored two runs in their last game, the prospect of another shutout appears reasonable again.
While they can’t hit any pitcher right now, their outlook against Baltimore starter Brandon Young is particularly negative.
During their cold streak, the Astros are slugging .130 against his favorite pitches from righties.
Their coldness will contribute to the “under” tonight.
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
Thursday, August 21, 2025 – 07:15 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium
The Yankees Are Streaking
New York enters tonight’s game on a five-game win streak.
During this streak, they’ve won each of their last four games by at least two runs. They scored six or more runs in each of these four games.
In the earlier part of August, they were slowly creeping down toward .500. But now they are a solid twelve games above .500.
New York’s Lineup
While the Yankees are able to lock down their opponents — they’ve allowed a combined total of six runs, excluding extra innings, in their last two games — it is primarily their lineup that is thriving.
Relevantly to tonight, the Yankees are slugging .553 against the favorite pitches from righties of tonight’s Boston starter Lucas Giolito.
Giolito has had an increasingly difficult time in his road starts. The Yankees will give him a massively difficult time tonight.
New York’s Pitching Tonight
The Yankees start Luis Gil tonight. Gil comes into today’s game in solid form, having allowed a combined total of three runs in his last two starts.
His good form can’t come as a surprise when you consider his underlying metrics. This season, he has been victimized by a very high BABIP (batting average of balls in play). His 3.76 FIP indicates that he is performing much better than his ERA suggests, which means that he has been due for statistical progression.
His ERA and FIP will be way lower than 3.76 tonight against a Boston lineup that, collectively, is 4-for-28 with zero extra-base hits and nine strikeouts against him.
Despite their last game lasting eleven innings, the Red Sox have failed to exceed three runs in any of their last three starts. Gil’s form and track record against them indicates that they will really struggle to produce tonight, giving the Yankees’ lineup rather little to have to do to win by multiple runs again.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Thursday, August 21, 2025 – 07:35 PM EDT at George M. Steinbrenner Field
Underrated Sonny Gray
St. Louis starts Sonny Gray tonight. Gray’s ERA creates a misleadingly negative impression of him.
He does what a pitcher needs to do: limit walks and home runs and induce a lot of soft contact. He is hard to hit, and he doesn’t give freebies.
His ERA is as bad as it is because his BABIP is unfortunately high. But this BABIP is unsustainable in view of the quality of his pitching. When he keeps performing well, his BABIP will drop, and so will his FIP.
Gray vs. Rays Batters
Before his last start against the Yankees, Gray had allowed a combined total of two runs in two starts, totaling 14 innings, against the highly-ranked Cubs and Dodgers lineups.
It is impossible for any pitcher to keep dominating top-tier lineups, so Gray was due for a bad outing.
Expect him to bounce back against what is a much softer Rays test.
He already loves pitching in Tampa Bay’s venue, where he owns a 2.97 ERA in five career starts.
Joe Boyle at Home
Tampa Bay starts Joe Boyle. He is another pitcher whom it is all too easy to dislike.
Bettors are inclined to go against him when they see his ERA and his last two starts. But his ERA was bad, and his last two starts were poor because he struggles on the road.
At home, Boyle is a different pitcher, though. In 15 innings at home this year, he yields a 0.60 ERA. He has locked down every lineup that visited him in Tampa Bay’s venue. He even shut down the Dodgers.
With Boyle dueling Gray in Tampa Bay, the first-five under is the play.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
