MLB Bet or Fade August 18: The Royals Rule in Kansas City
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Rainman M.
- August 18, 2025
Monday’s MLB slate features 13 games, but four matchups jump off the board for betting value at top sportsbooks: Astros vs. Tigers, Blue Jays vs. Pirates, Orioles vs. Red Sox, and Rangers vs. Royals.
Before locking in your wagers, here’s a closer look at the latest odds.
Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers
Monday, August 18, 2025 – 06:40 PM EDT at Comerica Park
The Jack-Attack Is Back
Detroit starts Jack Flaherty today.
If you look at the runs that he’s allowed in his latest starts, then you might think that he’s experiencing poor form. However, a deeper look says otherwise.
In his last start, he did a fantastic job of inducing soft contact, but he was victimized by an unfortunately high BABIP (batting average of balls in play).
His 1.04 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) in that start shows that he actually performed very well and attests to the quality of his current form.
Houston’s Struggling Starter
Whereas Flaherty’s most recent start creates a promising outlook for him tonight, Houston’s starter today is struggling.
The Astros start Spencer Arrighetti, who only allowed two runs in his last start but was aided tremendously by a fortunately miniscule BABIP. His FIP in that start was 5.52.
Unlike Flaherty, Arrighetti is a fringe-level professional, having bounced around between the minors and the MLB.
The last outing that each starter experienced reflects the great disparity in quality that we must always expect to find between them.
The Matchup Favors Detroit
Matchup details further buttress Detroit’s advantage today.
Whereas Houston ranks third-to-last with a .369 slugging rate against Flaherty’s favorite pitches from righties, Detroit ranks sixth with a .437 slugging rate against Arrighetti’s favorite pitches from righties.
The Tigers are justifiably favored strongly. They are too pricy for a straight-up wager, but they make for an awesome parlay pick.
Parlay Leg 1: Tigers First-Five ML (-150) at BetOnline
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Monday, August 18, 2025 – 06:40 PM EDT at PNC Park
Paul Skenes’ Redemption
The venerable Paul Skenes starts for Pittsburgh today.
Undoubtedly one of baseball’s top starters, he has held 21 of his 25 opponents to two earned runs or fewer.
Tonight’s game offers a special betting opportunity because he is coming off a rare bad performance. Tonight, we get a great pitcher who will be determined to buckle down.
History tells us to expect a bounce-back performance: in the three respective starts that followed one in which he allowed four runs or more, he allowed a combined total of one earned run.
Pittsburgh’s Lineup Tonight
The Pirates’ lineup loves facing tonight’s Blue Jays starter Kevin Gausman.
Collectively, they bat .364 and slug .655 against him.
While only four Pirates batters have faced him, all of them hit him well.
With Skenes pitching, they won’t even have to do much to secure a lead through five innings.
Parlay Leg 2: Pirates First-Five ML (-140) at BetOnline
The Parlay
- Tigers First-Five ML (-150)
- Pirates First-Five ML (-140)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Boston Red Sox
Monday, August 18, 2025 – 07:10 PM EDT at Fenway Park
Our Friend, Mr. Rogers
Baltimore makes for a great underdog pick with Trevor Rogers starting tonight.
Crab cakes must be great for his soul because Rogers is having, by far, the best season of his career in what is his first full season in Baltimore.
In particular, his command has improved tremendously. The rates at which he is allowing walks and home runs have plummeted.
With his quality pitches, all we need is for him to not give freebies, which is just what he doesn’t do anymore.
All of his pitches yield a slugging rate of .262 or lower. His favorite pitch by far, the fastball, yields a .231 slugging rate.
Rogers is flexing his prowess in his most recent starts. He’s held each of his last four opponents to one run or fewer, in addition to limiting his last nine opponents to two runs or fewer. One time this year, he allowed as many as three runs.
So far, Boston’s batters slug .233 against him, further indicating that we can only expect more great success from Rogers tonight.
Sizzling Baltimore
The Orioles are finally hitting as well as one had to expect from them after their strong season last year.
Even on the year as a whole, they do a good job against today’s Boston starter Dustin May’s pitches from righties.
But they are thriving, especially in their latest games. Since August 13, they are slugging .513 against those pitches from righties.
Full-Game Play
Boston is favored in this game because Baltimore has a lower-ranked bullpen.
However, the Red Sox bullpen is more fatigued because the Red Sox are coming off consecutive close games.
Conversely, Baltimore has its top relievers fresh because it blew out its last opponent.
For example, Kade Strowd with his 2.19 ERA is fresh in case the Orioles need him to help secure their victory tonight.
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals
Monday, August 18, 2025 – 07:40 PM EDT at Kauffman Stadium
Kansas City’s New Bats
The Royals apparently needed the time afforded by the All-Star Break to rejuvenate their bats.
Their most recent games illustrate my point that we must revise our perception of their lineup’s quality. They scored six runs in each of their last two games. More extensively, they scored at least six runs in five of their last six games.
They never should have been as bad as they were in the first half of the season. Metrics indicate that they weren’t performing so poorly.
The big thing was for the drop-off from their top hitters to their bottom-of-the-lineup guys to be less steep.
With luck verging on their side and their weaker hitters producing more, the Royals are now appearing formidable on offense.
Matchup Details
Kansas City’s sizzling form helps create a solid matchup advantage.
In the past week, the Royals are slugging .517 against today’s Texas starter Jack Leiter’s pitches from righties.
Conversely, Michael Wacha starts for Kansas City. He is a consistent force, having held each of his last six opponents to two runs or fewer and, accordingly, collected the win in each of his last three starts.
A Rangers lineup that ranks 25th in slugging against his pitches from righties won’t disrupt his form or match Kansas City’s firepower.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
