MLB Bet or Fade for August 14: Batters Are Kings in Queens Tonight
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Rainman M.
- August 14, 2025
It’s a packed MLB Thursday, and I’ve got three plays worth your action from top sportsbooks: Mariners vs. Orioles, Marlins vs. Guardians, and Braves vs. Mets.
Please note, the Mariners-Orioles game will take place early today, so get your bets in on time! Now, let’s dive into the latest betting odds with in-depth analysis—and why these picks make sense—so we can cash in.
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles
Thursday, August 14, 2025 – 01:05 PM EDT at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Baltimore’s Struggling Lineup
The heat in the city of Baltimore has not rubbed off on the Orioles.
It feels strange to say after the great success that their offense enjoyed last season, but their bats are really struggling now. Let’s not cling rigidly to impressions that seemed firm last year, because Baltimore’s offensive struggles are enduring and consistent.
In the past week, they’ve reached four runs a single time. More extensively, they’ve reached five runs a single time this month. In eleven games in August, they’ve failed eight times to reach four runs.
Logan Evans vs. Orioles Batters
Seattle starts Logan Evans today.
Evans matches up well against a Baltimore team that, in August, ranks last-place by far with a .209 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
Rematch Trend
Baltimore backers will observe that today’s Orioles starter Tomoyuki Sugano allowed one run to Seattle on June 3.
However, things often change when the same players compete against each other in multiple games. For Sugano, the tendency is to struggle to perform well a second consecutive time against the same team.
Most recently, he yielded a 7.36 ERA against a Guardians team that he had held to two runs in April. His starts against the Angels on June 14 and against the Yankees on June 20 further substantiate my point.
Matchup Details
Even regardless of the rematch situation, the Seattle offense owns a solid outlook today because it matches up well against Sugano.
The Mariners rank eighth with a .435 slugging rate against his pitches from righties.
This detail indicates that they must always be expected to perform well against Sugano.
Bullpen Disparity
Seattle is worth a full-game investment at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review), with its bullpen ranking 18 spots ahead of Baltimore’s.
Whereas the Orioles have one of the worst bullpens, Seattle’s is good and sufficiently fresh today to secure a win.
Miami Marlins vs. Cleveland Guardians
Thursday, August 14, 2025 – 06:40 PM EDT at Progressive Field
Edward Cabrera’s Narrative
Miami starts Edward Cabrera tonight.
Cabrera had been disappointing earlier in his career. He was always known to have good stuff, but, by underperforming partly due to repeated health issues, he struggled to the extent that his spot in his team’s starting rotation grew uncertain.
Starting in August of last year, though, he started to put it together. He improved tremendously, consistently limiting opponents to one run or zero runs.
This year, he is building off that improvement with what is his best season. His walk rate has plummeted. His strikeout rate, attesting to the quality of his stuff, was over ten batters per nine innings in each of his last two starts.
Batters struggle to touch his pitches, let alone score runs off him, and he doesn’t offer freebies.
Difference in Form
Cabrera and today’s Cleveland starter Tanner Bibee are currently performing on different levels.
Cabrera enters this game having held each of his last four opponents to one run.
It’s not like he’s simply benefiting from soft competition. He even locked down the Yankees.
Conversely, Bibee has allowed four earned runs in each of his last three starts. Most recently, the White Sox thrived against him.
Matchup Details
Even regardless of form, the matchup favors Cabrera.
Cleveland ranks 25th with a .388 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
Conversely, Miami ranks sixth with a .440 slugging rate against Bibee’s favorite pitches from righties.
Takeaway
With the matchup favoring Miami’s sizzling starter and with this team’s top relievers fresh, the Marlins merit a full-game investment.
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets
Thursday, August 14, 2025 – 07:10 PM EDT at Citi Field
Kodai Senga Is Overrated
Kodai Senga starts for the Mets tonight. He is a big reason why New York is favored so heavily tonight.
His 2.30 ERA looks great, but ERA often misrepresents the quality of a pitcher’s performances. Senga’s FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) is 4.05, which suggestst that he is performing poorly this season and is due for regression.
He has benefited from an unsustainably high strand rate and from a low BABIP (batting average of balls in play) that is also unsustainable in view of the rate at which he yields hard contact.
Matchup Details
I like Atlanta’s batters today to expose Senga.
They are hot, entering today’s game having scored seven or more runs in four of their last five games. They scored five runs in the exception.
In the past week, they rank third with a .625 slugging rate against Senga’s favorite pitches today.
While they will score a lot, the Mets will also score a lot off today’s starter for Atlanta Bryce Elder, against whom the Mets collectively hit .292 and slug .562. Expect a high-scoring start to this game.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
