MLB Bet or Fade August 11: Auto-Fade Pitchers Create Parlay Opportunities
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Rainman M.
- August 11, 2025
Monday’s MLB lineup features 11 games, but four offer standout betting value at the top sportsbooks: Rockies vs. Cardinals, Pirates vs. Brewers, Diamondbacks vs. Rangers, and Rays vs. Athletics
Before locking in your wagers, let’s break down the latest MLB odds.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Monday, August 11, 2025 – 07:40 PM EDT at American Family Field
Andrew Heaney’s Form
Today’s Pirates starter, Andrew Heaney, underwent a brutal stretch of starts in the middle of July.
The fact that he has recently allowed a few runs seems to suggest that he has developed his form, but the underlying metrics tell a different story.
His FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) was 7.31 in his penultimate start against the Rockies and 6.75 in his most recent start against the Giants.
Opponents are continuing to hit him hard — with a hard contact rate of 50 percent two starts ago and one of 40 percent in his last start.
Heaney vs. Brewers Batters
Milwaukee’s lineup gets a weak version of Heaney, although Milwaukee’s lineup has already proven that it enjoys facing even a stronger version of him.
Collectively, the Brewers bat .344 and slug .672 against him. Seven different Brewers batters slug at least .500 with him on the mound.
Jose Quintana’s Outlook
Milwaukee starts Jose Quintana tonight.
One difference between Quintana and Heaney is that Quintana overcame his rough stretch. Quintana’s FIP was 2.94 in his last start.
Another difference is that Quintana owns a much stronger track record against the lineup that he’ll face tonight.
Collectively, Pittsburgh bats .233 and slugs .344 against him.
Pittsburgh’s Lineup
The Pirates own baseball’s second-worst road lineup.
They also own the lowest slugging rate against left-handed pitching.
So, place them on the road and have them face a left-handed starter, then you have a recipe for disaster.
Milwaukee has plenty of low-ERA relievers available tonight with which to secure Quintana’s lead and to prolong its nine-game winning streak.
Parlay Leg 1: Brewers ML (-188) at BetOnline
Colorado Rockies vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Monday, August 11, 2025 – 07:45 PM EDT at Busch Stadium
Simple Logic
In Colorado’s Chase Dollander and St. Louis’ Miles Mikolas, we get a matchup between a Triple-A-caliber starter in Dollander and an established professional starter in Mikolas.
Colorado’s 28th-ranked lineup, which averages 1.43 fewer runs per game on the road than at home, and 29th-ranked bullpen cannot be expected to remotely compensate for this disparity in starting pitcher quality.
Fade Chase Dollander
As bad as Colorado’s starting rotation is, Dollander was relegated to Triple-A because he couldn’t establish himself in it.
His 6.68 ERA says it all. His walk rate is scarily close to his strikeout rate, indicating a coalescence of poor stuff and poor command that makes it easy for opposing lineups to slam him. Indeed, he’s lost his last six decisions.
Miles Mikolas and Relievers
Whereas Dollander is a reliable fade, Mikolas has found his groove at home.
He has allowed a combined total of four earned runs in his last four home starts.
A Colorado lineup that is annually one of the worst on the road won’t challenge him in St. Louis.
With multiple low-ERA relievers available for the Cardinals and with Colorado’s bullpen being as bad as it is, contributing to the fact that the Rockies have allowed at least ten runs in four of their last six games, St. Louis is worth a full-game investment.
Parlay Leg 2: Cardinals ML (-208) at BetOnline
The Parlay
- Brewers ML (-188)
- Cardinals ML (-208)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Texas Rangers
Monday, August 11, 2025 – 08:05 PM EDT at Globe Life Field
Ryne Nelson Is up for the Challenge
With Nathan Eovaldi starting for Texas, the Rangers might seem automatically parlay-worthy, but this isn’t the case tonight with Ryne Nelson starting for the Diamondbacks.
Nelson is enjoying superb form. He’s allowed a combined total of four earned runs in his last four starts.
His stuff is especially sharp right now, as evident in the significantly heightened rate at which he is inducing batters to swing and miss at pitches.
A Texas lineup that is ice-cold, having failed to exceed two runs in any of its last five games, won’t challenge him.
The Venerable Nathan Eovaldi
Texas starts Nathan Eovaldi, whom many baseball fans refuse to see as one of baseball’s best pitchers because old impressions die hard.
At 1.38, his ERA is over 2.00 lower than it was in any previous season.
In particular, he is yielding soft contact at a much higher rate than he ever did before.
The main cause of Eovaldi’s improvement is the threat that his secondary pitches now pose to batters.
Last year, for example, his curveball was his fourth-favorite pitch to throw, and it yielded a .471 slugging rate.
This year, he throws his two favorite pitches slightly less often and, injecting more balance into his arsenal, throws his curveball more often. This pitch now yields a .134 slugging rate.
Eovaldi has, in sum, become a complete pitcher.
He has allowed a combined total of two runs in his last six starts, automatically making him reliable against an Arizona lineup that will feel shocked today after most recently getting to face Colorado’s pitching.
Eovaldi and Nelson will combine to make this game low-scoring through five innings.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Athletics
Monday, August 11, 2025 – 10:05 PM EDT at Sutter Health Park
The A’s Are Justifiably Favored
Bettors will be eager to invest in a Tampa Bay team that, relative to its opponent, has the better overall record and the starting pitcher with the better ERA.
However, the matchup clearly favors the Athletics.
Ryan Pepiot starts for the Rays. The A’s rank number one with a .479 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
Jeffrey Springs starts for the A’s. He enjoys solid form, having allowed a combined total of four runs in his last three starts. He’s sustained his form against lineups that match up much better against him than the one he’ll face tonight.
This starting pitcher mismatch will ensure that the A’s lead through five innings.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
