MLB Bet or Fade for August 9: Baptism of Fire Scheduled for Padres
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Rainman M.
- August 9, 2025
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for tonight’s action.
Four games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Royals vs. Twins, Cubs vs. Cardinals, Phillies vs. Rangers, and Red Sox vs. Padres.
For your Best Bets, I will recommend the Royals, Cubs, Phillies, and Red Sox.
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins
Saturday, August 09, 2025 – 07:10 PM EDT at Target Field
Noah Cameron’s Golden Spot
Noah Cameron starts for the Royals tonight. If you look at his last start, then it becomes tempting to fade him.
However, we have to remain objective and resist the insidious psychological phenomenon called recency bias.
History shows that Cameron always bounces back from a tough outing. In the three respective starts that directly followed the three previous starts in which he allowed four or more runs, he allowed a combined total of zero runs.
His bounce-back spot fortifies his outlook against a Minnesota team that he faced once this season, when, on May 23, he held the Twins to one run in 6.2 innings in their venue.
It’s Over for Ober
Bailey Ober starts for the Twins tonight.
This season, Ober is experiencing a major decline. Relative to last year, he is striking out two fewer batters per nine innings. Likewise, he is allowing home runs at a much higher rate.
The home runs have been a huge problem. He’s allowed at least one in each of his last seven starts. During this seven-start stretch, he’s allowed a combined total of 17 home runs.
Unsurprisingly, he’s also allowing a ton of runs overall. He’s yielded at least four earned runs to each of his last six opponents.
Kansas City’s Lineup and Bullpen
Royals batters already love facing Ober, of whom they get to see a weaker version today.
Collectively, they bat .302 and slug .526 against him. Kyle Isbel, Salvador Perez, and Bobby Witt Jr. all slug over .580 against him.
With more home runs and other hard-batted balls, Kansas City’s entire lineup will perform even better against Ober in his current form.
Because the Royals have good, low-ERA relievers fresh, they make for a solid full-game investment. If the moneyline becomes more expensive, then simply play the Royals on the run-line instead because they’ll win this game by more than a run.
Chicago Cubs vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Saturday, August 09, 2025 – 07:15 PM EDT at Busch Stadium
Key Cubs Trend
After coming off a shutout loss, the normally solid Cubs lineup — which ranks second in runs per game — will be eager to bounce back.
They merit a full-game investment because they are 5-1 in the game following a shutout loss.
Colin Rea’s Fortune
While the run total that today’s Cubs starter Colin Rea allowed in his last two starts doesn’t really show it — although he did hold his last opponent to two runs — his form is actually solid.
His FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) was below 3.00 in each of his last two starts.
Chicago’s Pitching Edge
Rea’s outlook is terrific against a Cardinals lineup that collectively bats .173 and slugs .250 against him. Conversely, today’s Cardinals starter, Andre Pallante, yields a .310 BA and .517 slugging rate to Cubs batters.
With Chicago’s top relievers fresh, the Cubs are going to win.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Texas Rangers
Saturday, August 09, 2025 – 07:15 PM EDT at Globe Life Field
Struggling Jacob DeGrom
Nobody is denying that, when considering his 240 career starts, today’s Texas starter Jacob deGrom emerges as an excellent pitcher.
But even the best pitchers experience phases in which they struggle. DeGrom is currently in one of those phases.
In his last two starts, he’s allowed a combined total of ten runs. He took the loss in both of them. It’s not like his opponents were the Dodgers and Yankees. They were the Angels and Mariners.
This season, DeGrom’s FIP is .85 higher than his ERA, suggesting that he is due to experience statistical regression. His poor form will contribute to this regression.
Jesus Saves the Day
Philadelphia starts Jesus Luzardo tonight.
Luzardo, having collected the win in both of his last two starts, does not share deGrom’s struggles. Luzardo also does not share deGrom’s expectation of statistical regression.
In fact, Luzardo’s ERA is 1.24 higher than his FIP, which indicates that he is due to experience a strong drop in his ERA.
He has been the victim this year of an unfortunately high BABIP (batting average of balls in play). This BABIP is unsustainable.
Texas batters won’t even easily manage to make contact with his pitches. Ranking dead-last with a .330 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from lefties, they couldn’t match up worse against Luzardo.
Given the matchup and the differences in form and ERA-FIP disparity, it is clear that oddsmakers are favoring the wrong team. Texas does have a much better bullpen, though, so let’s stick to a first-five play at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review).
Boston Red Sox vs. San Diego Padres
Saturday, August 09, 2025 – 08:40 PM EDT at Petco Park
Respecting Lucas Giolito
Boston starts Lucas Giolito tonight.
A commonly propagated narrative surrounding him is that he has become a fallen star.
Most recently, though, he is ascending. He enters today’s game in superb form, having allowed a combined total of two runs in his last two starts, which totaled 14 innings.
Boston Lineup’s Form
The Red Sox are primed to provide Giolito with ample run support.
They’ve scored at least six runs in five of their last six games. The one exception came when they faced a starting pitcher who was enjoying excellent form, a form that was vastly stronger than that of today’s Padres pitcher, Michael King.
Pitching Edge
King’s outlook tonight is poor against a Boston lineup that, in addition to being hot, collectively bats .310 and slugs .452 against him.
Conversely, Giolito yields a .196 BA and .275 slugging rate against Padres batters. In 102 at-bats, they’ve managed one home run against him.
It is Giolito, and not Boston’s bullpen, whom we want to trust, which is why we need to stick to a first-five play.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
