MLB Best Bets for September 9: Mets to Conquer Suarez in Philadelphia
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LT Profits
- September 9, 2025
We has a winning night at 2-1 last Tuesday including a dog winner at +133 odds, leaving is a profitable 87-70-4 over our last 161 Major League Baseball picks with no favorites higher than the -130s. We now return this Tuesday for a full 15-game card of MLB betting matchups with every team in action, and we have the three best bets that we feel have the most betting value at the currently posted MLB odds.
MLB best bets
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with all three of our selections for Tuesday being underdog sides that we feel are undervalued. We also searched for the best available odds at the top sportsbooks for each of our selections.
- Nationals ML (+112)
- Mets ML (+108)
- Diamondbacks ML (+124)
Washington Nationals vs. Miami Marlins
We do not think that Adam Mazur of the Marlins deserves to be a decided favorite over anyone, so we are backing southpaw Mitchell Parker and the Nationals as underdogs in Miami on Tuesday.
Mazur Has Wide Arsenal but No Go-To Pitch
Much was expected from Adam Mazur when he was throwing in the upper 90s early in his minor league career, but that velocity took a nosedive in recent years, and he has been very hittable in the Major Leagues. Yes, he has a wise five-pitch arsenal, but he is lacking the one “out pitch” necessary with all his pitches rated average or below on Stuff+.
He went 1-3 with an ugly 7.49 over 33.2 innings as a rookie for the Padres last season, and he has not been particularly good for the Marlins either in his three starts this year. He stands at 0-2 with a 5.74 ERA, and while that is over just 15.2 innings, his indicators are not good. He has a bad 4.62 xFIP and a weak K/BB ratio of 6.89/2.87 per nine innings. Moreover, he comes off an outing where he allowed five runs and 10 hits in six innings vs. these same Nationals in DC.
We simply do not trust Adam as a favorite here facing a Washington offense that has been red-hot vs. right-handers this month, posting a wRC+ of 125 against them in September.
Parker Should Get Good Support, Miami Can’t Hit Lefties
That offense has propelled the Nats to a 6-1 record this month including a huge outburst in a 15-7 romp here in Miami last night. Thus, we expect good support tonight for Mitchell Parker, which is good news considering he enters at just 7-15 with a 5.87 ERA. As bad as that is, we feel this pitching matchup is still basically even, given the struggles Mazur has had at the Major League level, with Parker having the advantage of being at an underdog price.
And to be fair, at least Mitchell is showing some signs of improvement while allowing two and three earned runs respectively over his last two starts with a very nice ratio of 11 strikeouts vs. just one walk in 11 innings. Also, he has been rather unlucky all year with an abnormally low strand rate of 60.0%.
He now gets to face a Miami offense that ranks 26th in wRC+ vs. left-handers this season at a mere 79 (21% below average.
So. to summarize, both pitchers have been relatively equally bad, although Parker at least comes off two good starts, and Washington has a big edge offensively right now. Bet on the Nats as underdogs.
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies
The Phillies have a commanding 8-game lead over the Mets in the NL East, making this a much bigger game for New York as it tries to hold on to a 3-game lead for the last wild card spot. And we are betting on the Mets to get it done as small dogs in Philly as Sean Manaea visits Ranger Suarez.
Suarez ERA Seems Undeserved with Modest Metrics
Ranger Suarez enters this game with a nice 11-6 record and a spiffy 2.89 ERA, but while we feel he is a good pitcher, we do question if he is as good as that ERA. For starters, while his xFIP is a good 3.71, that is still nearly one run higher than the ERA. Also, he does not grade well enough on Stuff+ to support a sub-3.00 ERA either.
Ranger is now 30 years old, and he has seen a dip in his fastball velocity to a career low 91.3 MPH this season. That has resulted in a very low Stuff+ of 84 for that fastball, and while he has a vast arsenal of six pitches, the only above average rated pitch is easily his least thrown pitch. That would be the slider that he has thrown a scant 2.8% of the time, helping explain his below average overall Stuff+ of 96.
The southpaw is facing a Mets offense that is a tick above average in wRC+ vs. lefties for the season at 101, but that figure stands at a daunting 178 through the early going so far this month.
Manaea Has the Better xFIP and Great Command
The fellow southpaw Sean Manaea had a belated start to this season after an extended stint on the injured list, not making his season debut until July 13th out of the bullpen and his first start until July 18th. He is just 1-2 in those 10 games (9 starts) with a bloated 5.60 ERA, but do not be fooled by those frontline stats as his peripherals paint a rosier picture.
That is because he has the better xFIP in this matchup at 3.19, which is always a nice trait for an underdog and nearly 2.5 runs lower than the ERA. He has accomplished that with great command as he has a supreme K/BB ratio of 11.80/1.80 per nine innings. Sean has been extremely unlucky with a .336 BABIP allowed and a 66.9% strand rate, so the ERA should converge downward toward the xFIP as those Luck Stats normalize.
Manaea is facing a Phillies offense that has been the polar opposite of the Mets offense against lefties this month, with a wRC+ of only 88.
So, we do not think that Suarez is as good as his ERA while also feeling that Manaea is much better than his, both based on peripherals. Thus, go with the underdog value with the Mets on Tuesday.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. San Francisco Giants
We think Robbie Ray of the Giants may be in the claws of the negative regression we have been waiting for all along, so we are supporting the hot Zac Gallen and the Diamondbacks as decided underdogs in San Francisco on Tuesday.
Regression for Ray Rearing Its Ugly Head?
Robbie Ray has what we feel are deceptively good frontline state this year, as he has a 10-6 record and a 3.31 ERA. However, the xFIP is considerably higher at 4,22 due to several peripherals that belie the ERA. And worst of all for Ray, the imminent regression we expected may now be in progress as he has gone three straight starts without recording a Quality Start and has been simply brutal over his last two outings.
Robbie won a Cy Young Award in 2021 when he posted a career low walk rate of 2.42/9, but that was really the only season of his career that he kept his walks at least manageable. That rate is up to 3.47/9 this season, and he has combined that extra traffic with a poor soft/hard contact ratio of 13.9%/30.6% and an ordinary groundball rate of 36.9%.
We felt that made his ERA unsustainable, and that is now starting to bare itself out with Ray surrendering 11 runs and 13 hits in nine innings over his last two starts.
Forner Cy Young Candidate Rounding to Form
Zac Gallen may not be the same pitcher that finished second in the Cy Young Award voting two years ago in 2023, and in fact he has a losing 11-13 record this season with a 4.77 ERA, although his xFIP is noticeably better at a semi-respectable 4.08. However, while Ray is regressing negatively, Gallen has been on a positive trajectory lately that has him much closer to that great 2023 form than the struggling pitcher he was to begin this season.
To wit, Zac was 7-12 with a 5.60 ERA and a high walk rate of 3.33/9 through the end of July. Since August 1st however, he has gone 4-1 in seven starts with a 2.20 ERA while slashing the walk rate by more than a full batter to 2.20/9. That has resulted in allowing three runs or less in each of those last seven starts, including tossing 12 scoreless innings while allowing only six hits with 13 strikeouts over his last two outings!
Thus, we see this as a matchup of two pitchers on opposite paths, with Gallen approaching the form that made him a 2023 Cy Young candidate and Ray’s metrics catching up to him. Bet the D-Backs as nice dogs.
More Picks from Our Experts
Don’t miss Donnie RightSide’s favorite plays for today’s slate below. And be sure to visit our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice!
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
