MLB Best Bets for September 24: Royals Crowned Victorious in Anaheim
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LT Profits
- September 24, 2025
We had a winning night on Tuesday going 2-1, leaving us a profitable 96-77-4 over our last 177 Major League Baseball picks with no favorites higher than the -130s. We are back Wednesday for another full 15-game slate of MLB betting matchups with all 30 teams in action, and we have the three best bets that we feel have the most betting value at the currently posted MLB odds.
MLB best bets
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with our three selections for Wednesday consisting of one small underdog side and two totals. As usual, we also searched for the best available odds at the top sportsbooks for each of our selections.
- Pirates-Reds Under 7 (-115)
- Twins-Rangers Under 7.5 (-102)
- Royals ML (+107)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Cincinnati Reds
We are expecting a good old-fashioned pitching duel in the Queen City on Wednesday. We are backing the Under when one of the best pitchers in baseball in Paul Skenes, and the Pirates visit Hunter Greene and the Reds.
Skenes Heavy Favorite for NL Cy Young
Skenes is the overwhelming favorite to take home the National League Cy Young Award, and with good reason. To say he deserves better than a 10-10 record would be the understatement of the year for a guy that leads the Major Leagues in ERA at 2.03 while also ranking second in WAR (6.1), fifth in xFIP (3.05) and eighth in strikeout rate (10.35). Furthermore, he combines all of that with a fine groundball rate of 44.5%.
This is also a matchup of the two hardest throwers in the league, with Paul officially leading the way with an average fastball velocity of 98.3 MPH. But he also combines that with perhaps the best slider in the game rated 131 on Stuff+, as well as a terrific curveball rated 118. He is legitimately one of the best pitchers in the game, with the sole reason for the modest record being pitching for a team that cannot score. But that suits our bet on the Under here just fine.
Paul Skenes also benefits from facing a disappointing Cincinnati offense ranked 24th in the majors in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers at 97, a figure that has plummeted to 88 during the month of September.
Greene with Better Velocity Than Skenes!
While Skenes officially leads the majors in average velocity, Greene would hold that distinction if a stint on the injured list has not limited him to 101.2 innings this season, about 60 innings short of qualifying. Greens is averaging an amazing 99.4 MPH, topping 100 MPH on a regular benefit. And an ironic benefit of being injured for some time is he is still throwing gas late in the season due to his light workload.
We loved Hunter Greene coming into this season, and he has indeed excelled when he has made it to the mound, going 7-4 with a great 2.74 ERA and 3.29 xFIP. He even has a higher strikeout rate than Skenes at 11.07/9, making for a nice ratio next to a walk rate of 2.12/9. Moreover, he comes off a start that was one of the best in all of baseball by any pitcher this year last Thursday, a Complete Game 1-hit shutout with nine strikeouts against one walk vs. the Cubs.
And of course, he is facing one of the worst offenses in the league with Pittsburgh ranking 29th out of 30 teams in wRC+ against righties at 84.
What we have here is a probable Cy Young winner on one side, a pitcher that could have been a contender for the award with a full season on the other side and two struggling offenses. Bet on the Under.
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers
After we collected on a winning ticket on the Under here in Arlington last night, we expect more of the same between the same two teams on Wednesday. We are again betting on the Under when Jacob deGrom and the Rangers host Taj Bradley and the Twins.
deGrom to Bounce Back from Rare Stinker
Jacob deGrom is having his healthiest season since 2019, accumulating 29 starts this year, and the former Cy Young winner is showing he has not lost much of anything. Now 34 years old, he comes in at 12-8 with a 3.01 ERA and 3.40 xFIP, with a typically great K/BB ratio of 9.50/1.93 per nine innings that is quite reminiscent of his glory days.
Granted, he had one of his worst starts of the season last time out allowing five runs in five innings, but we foresee a bounce-back effort here. After all, even with that stinker, Jacob has allowed three runs or less in 25 of his 29 outings.
Also, despite the bad outing, his command was still good with six strikeouts and one walk over the five innings, and his average velocity of 97.6 MPH was a tick above his 97.5 MPH for the season. Thus, we will just toss the stat line as an anomaly for a guy that still has an excellent swinging strike rate of 14.1% on the year and a great overall Stuff+ of 111 even at an advancing age.
Should See “Good” Bradley vs. Weak Offense
Taj Bradley just may be the most frustrating pitcher in baseball, as he is blessed with great raw tools leading to some nice metrics, yet he has been maddeningly erratic. He enters this contest with a 6-8 record for the Twins and Rays combined, with a very disappointing 5.20 ERA and 4.41 xFIP. This is from a pitcher with an overall Stuff+ of 101.
Much more was expected from a pitcher with a 96.2 MPH fastball rated 103 on Stuff+ and two secondary pitches in his cutter and curveball both rated over 100. Taj even has a good groundball rate of 44.7%. Yet, every time he seems like he has figured things out such as his Quality Start two starts back, he often regresses next time out like he did last Wednesday allowing seven runs in four innings.
With all that said, we think we can see the “good” Bradley tonight against a Texas offense again at its worst offensive split, with a wRC+ of 87 against righties at home.
Besides, if deGrom is as great as we expect him to be, it will not hurt this play that much if Bradley allows a couple of runs. With this in mind, we are going Under the total in Texas.
Kansas City Royals vs. Los Angeles Angels
We are expecting a mini upset in Anaheim on Wednesday night, as we are backing Stephen Kolek and the Royals as small underdogs when they visit Yusei Kikuchi and the Angels.
Kolek in Good Form with Great Groundball Rate
Stephen Kolek was acquired by the Royals from the Padres at the trade deadline and he has continued to display the good form he had in San Diego. In fact, he is a perfect four for four in Quality Starts in a Kansas City uniform, allowing exactly one earned run in three of those starts and two runs in the other while working at least six innings every time,
While Stephen still has a 5-6 record at his two stops combined, he deserves better with a flattering overall 3.54 ERA. Granted, he is not a big strikeout guy at only 6.33/9, but he has made up for it with an excellent groundball rate of 51.9%, keyed by a sinker rated 111 on Stuff+ to go along with two other pitches (slider, curveball) rated 100 or better. All that downward movement has also led to a low home run rate allowed of 0.68/9.
That ability to keep the ball in the yard while inducing grounders is key against an Angels offense that is too reliant on home runs. The Halos are second in the league in homers vs. right-handers, yet they are only 26th in wRC+ against them at 92.
Kikuchi with High Walk Rate, Bad Bullpen
Yusei Kikuchi has his best two seasons in the Major Leagues the last two years, thanks to finally getting his walks under control, posting his two lowest walk rates ever. Well, now at 34 years old, the command issues that plagued him in the past have sadly returned, with the walk rate back up to an alarming 3.79/9. Making that more of a concern is his good strikeout rate of 8.72/9 is still well down from 10.55/9 last season.
The end-result has been a 6-11 record with a 4.05 ERA and 4.32 xFIP. And it certainly does not help that he has combined that declining K/BB ratio with a poor soft/hard contact ratio of 12.9%/35.9%. Furthermore, his current form is not any better with Yusei having only one Quality Start in his last five outings.
To make matters worse, Kikuchi cannot count on much support from one of the worst bullpens in the majors that ranks 28th in ERA (4.87) and 27th in xFIP (4.46).
We think a case can be made for the wrong team being favored here when combining Kolek being the better starter and having the ability to take away what the Angels do best (homers) and the poor Angels pen. Bet the Royals as dogs.
More Picks from Our Experts
Don’t miss Donnie RightSide’s top picks for today below. And be sure to visit our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice!
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
