MLB Best Bets for September 23: Playoff Atmosphere in Cleveland on Tuesday
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LT Profits
- October 31, 2025
We remain a very solid 94-76-4 over our last 174 Major League Baseball picks despite a 1-2 night last Wednesday, with no favorites higher than the -130s.
We return on Tuesday for a full 15-game slate of MLB betting matchups with every team in action, and we have the three best bets that we feel have the most betting value at the currently posted MLB odds.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with all three of our selections for Tuesday being totals, including one in the biggest game of the night in Cleveland. We also searched for the best available odds at the top sportsbooks for each of our selections.
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians
Tuesday, September 23, 2025 – 06:40 PM EDT
This may be the biggest series of the MLB season between the top two teams in the AL Central, as the Tigers look to avoid a monumental collapse after once having a 15.5-game lead over the second-place Guardians.
That lead is now one game, and whoever does not win the division is not guaranteed a wild-card spot. We are backing the Under on Tuesday with Tarik Skubal facing Gavin Williams.
Skubal Should Repeat as Cy Young Winner
The Tigers could not have asked for a better starter for such a pivotal game, as Skubal is the well-deserved prohibitive favorite to repeat as the AL Cy Young Award winner. And he just faced these Guardians last time out, coming away with an unlucky no-decision despite allowing just one run on a solo homer with nine strikeouts vs. two walks in six innings.
Tarik leads the Major Leagues in Pitching WAR at 6.4 while ranking second in both ERA (2.23) and xFIP (2.67) and third in strikeout rate (11.08/9). Moreover, he combines that with a good groundball rate of 40.2% and an excellent soft/hard contact ratio of 20.0%/27.2%, not to mention his overall Stuff+ of 116.
The southpaw also faces a Cleveland offense that ranks 24th in the majors in wRC+ against left-handed pitchers at 80 (20% below average).
Williams Consistently Good, Nice Pen Support
Williams may not be at the same elite status as Skubal, but he has been consistently good while going 11-5 with a 3.06 ERA.
And while this may not literally be a pitching rematch, Williams did also face tonight’s opponent last week and tossed five scoreless innings while getting the win against these Tigers, allowing just three hits with nine strikeouts and two walks.
That marked the sixth straight start that Gavin has allowed three earned runs or less, and his 25th such outing out of 30 starts this season. Moreover, he allowed exactly four earned runs four times, meaning that he has allowed more than four earned runs just once in his 30 starts!
We expect more of the same tonight against a Detroit offense that has simply stopped hitting, with a wRC+ of 80 vs. right-handers this month of September. Furthermore, Williams has the support of a hot Cleveland bullpen that is up to fourth in the league in ERA (3.52) and fifth in xFIP.
What we have here is a Cy Young starter on one side, a very good starter on the other, a Cleveland offense that has not hit lefties all year and a slumping Detroit offense.
Bet the Under in Cleveland.
Washington Nationals vs. Atlanta Braves
Tuesday, September 23, 2025 – 07:15 PM EDT
We foresee a sneaky pitching duel in Atlanta between two young pitchers who are not household names but have nice potential. We are betting on the Under when Hurston Waldrep and the Braves host Brad Lord and the Nationals.
Waldrep a Bright Spot for Disappointing Braves
The Braves are in the unusual position of being an also-ran this season.
However, Waldrep has been a rare bright spot in an otherwise disappointing campaign. He was a first-round pick in the 2023 MLB Draft and has made a fast ascent to the Major Leagues here just two years later. Most importantly, he has lived up to the billing.
Hurston has gone 5-1 in nine games (eight starts) for a team that is nine games under .500, with a 3.04 ERA and a higher but still good 3.66 xFIP. He has displayed one of our favorite combinations with a nice strikeout rate of 8.94/9 and a good groundball rate of 46.2%, each keyed by a heavy 95.8 MPH sinker.
The rookie also has a great splitter in his arsenal, rated 125 on Stuff+, helping lead to a nice overall rating of 103.
Moreover, after allowing just one run in 5.2 innings of bulk relief in his debut, Waldrep has gone on to allow three runs or less in seven of his eight starts, allowing two runs or less in six of them!
Rookie Lord Trending Nicely as of Late
The fellow rookie Lord got off to a shaky start, which leaves him at 5-8 with a 4.18 ERA overall, although his xFIP is better at 3.93.
He has a decent fastball at 94.8 MPH. However, he has shown marked improvement over his last three starts while increasing the usage of his slider, which is a shrewd move with that being his highest rated pitch on Stuff+ at 103.
As a result, he has now allowed three runs or less in each of his last three outings, including a start against these Braves where he allowed two runs in 5.1 innings.
That slider has helped generate a very good groundball rate all season at 48.6%, helping offset his mediocre strikeout rate of 7.46/9. Moreover, Brad has also had some bad luck with a BABIP allowed of .301.
This is a matchup of a rookie in Waldrep who seems to be fulfilling his potential as a first-round pick, and another rookie in Lord who is improving with every start.
We are going Under in Truist Park.
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers
Tuesday, September 23, 2025 – 08:05 PM EDT
We are not expecting a ton of offense in Arlington, TX on Tuesday night. Thus, we are giving out support to the Under when Patrick Corbin and the Rangers host Zebby Matthews and the Twins.
Corbin No Longer the Auto-Fade of Recent Years
Corbin may have mediocre overall numbers this year at 7-10 with a 4.33 ERA and 4.18 xFIP, but that is a marked improvement for a pitcher who was commonly regarded as the worst starter in baseball over the last four years.
After all, his best ERA in any season over that span was 5.20. Although, to be fair, his best xFIP in that same period was 4.14 last season, a mark he has maintained for the most part.
Perhaps pitching in the American League for the first time helped do the trick, but regardless of the reason, Patrick has been surprisingly consistent for Texas. He has made 28 starts and allowed three runs or less in 23 of them.
It helps that he has now made the slider his most frequent pitch with a 33.9% usage, as that is his highest rated pitch on Stuff+ at 100. Also, Corbin has an unlucky strikeout rate of 7.56/9, considering that his good swinging strike rate of 11.1% is his best mark since 2021.
Matthews with Good xFIP, Faces Weak Offense
Matthews comes in at 4-6 with a lofty 5.97 ERA through 72.1 innings, but he has not been nearly as bad as the ERA suggests over a relatively small sample.
For evidence, look no further than his very respectable 3.85 xFIP. The ERA is inflated by Matthews truly being one of the unluckiest pitchers in baseball, with a ridiculous .376 BABIP allowed and a low 65.9% strand rate.
That strand rate would be unluckily low for any pitcher, but it is especially low for a good strikeout pitcher, as Zebby has a nice K-Rate of 10.20/9. And that K-Rate is not a fluke, given his 12.7% swinging strike rate.
Yet, the unfortunate BABIP has been his undoing when he is not striking people out.
His luck could change tonight, facing a Texas offense whose worst offensive split has been against right-handers here at home, with a wRC+ of just 88 in this circumstance. This is also Matthews’ first career appearance against the Rangers, which usually favors the pitcher.
To summarize, Corbin has rejuvenated his career and been consistently good in his first year in the American League, while Matthews has been mostly a victim of poor luck.
Bet on the Under on Tuesday.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
