MLB Best Bets for September 2: High Dosage of Runs in Dalkin Park Tuesday
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Bookmakers Review
- September 2, 2025
We remain a profitable 85-69-4 over our last 158 Major League Baseball picks even with a losing night on Friday, with no favorites higher than the -130s.
We now return on Tuesday for a big 14-game card of MLB betting matchups, and as usual, we have the three best bets that we feel have the most betting value at the currently posted MLB odds.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with our three selections for Tuesday consisting of one underdog side and two totals. We also searched for the best available odds at the top sportsbooks for each of our selections.
Cleveland Guardians vs. Boston Red Sox
Tuesday, September 02, 2025 – 06:45 PM EDT at Fenway Park
We feel that runs will be hard to come by in Beantown on Tuesday night. Thus, we are supporting the Under when Garrett Crochet and the Red Sox host Slade Cecconi and the Guardians.
Elite Southpaw Facing Team that Can’t Hit Lefties
The left-hander Crochet has legitimately been one of the best pitchers in the Major Leagues this season.
After pitching extremely well with nothing to show for it with the last-place White Sox last year, he has flourished with a better team by going 14-5 thus far while ranking fourth in the majors in ERA at 2.40 and second in xFIP at 2.21. This currently makes Crochet the second betting choice to win the American League Cy Young Award behind only Tarik Skubal.
Garret combines a great K/BB ratio of 11.18/2.19 per nine innings with a very good groundball rate of 48.5%, with the K-Rate also ranking fourth in the league. Batters are simply not getting good swings at him, as he has a swinging strike rate of 13.4% and a career-high soft contact rate of 17.5%. As you might expect, Crochet is also a Stuff+ Darling with an outstanding overall rating of 131!
And here, he also benefits from facing a Cleveland offense ranked 28th out of 30 MLB teams in wRC+ vs. southpaws at 75 (or 25% below average).
Cecconi Made Nice Strides, Boston Offense Slumping
Cecconi was well regarded when he came up with Arizona in 2023, but he was traded to the Guardians this past offseason after two underwhelming seasons. And while he is only 3-8 with a 4.41 ERA and 4.17 xFIP for Cleveland, he has made some nice strides that have belied the frontline stats and is in fact, having his best Major League season.
He is averaging 94.2 MPH with his fastball, and he has accompanied that with one of the better curveballs in the league, with a 106 rating on Stuff+. While his strikeout rate is mediocre at 7.32/9, his now more developed curveball has helped offset that by raising his groundball rate to a good 40.4% from just 33.6% last year. This has resulted in Slade allowing three earned runs or fewer in 14 of his 18 starts this season.
Cecconi is also facing a Boston offense that has been slumping against right-handers since August 1st, especially here in Fenway Park, with a paltry wRC+ of 70 against them in that time.
What we have here is one of the best pitchers in baseball in Crochet, an underrated hurler in Cecconi, and two offenses struggling with the handedness faced tonight, so bet on the Under.
MLB Pick: Guardians/Red Sox Under 8 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins
Tuesday, September 02, 2025 – 07:40 EDT at Target Field
While the White Sox have the worst record in the American League, we still think they offer nice underdog value on Tuesday and are betting on them with Davis Martin visiting Simeon Woods Richardson and the Twins.
Woods Richardson had an Awful Return and is Overpriced
Simply put, Woods Richardson should not be this big of a favorite over any team in the league.
While he somehow has a winning record of 5-4, that mark comes with a 4.59 ERA and a disgusting 5.19 xFIP through 17 starts covering 84.1 innings. He recently spent a month on the disabled list after having a parasite removed from his digestive system, but he was not any better in his return last Wednesday, allowing five earned runs in 3.2 innings in Toronto.
Simeon has a weak K/BB ratio of 7.58/3.95 per nine innings and a low groundball rate of 30.9%. Moreover, much of that abundant air contact had been hard with his hard-contact rate at 33.1%, helping lead to an above-average home run rate allowed of 1.60/9. He is not missing too many bats with a single-digit strikeout rate of 9.4%, and he has an awful overall Stuff+ of 78.
And while the White Sox remain 29th in wRC+ vs, righties overall at 85, they have shown marked improvement since August 1st, with that mark a more respectable 97.
Martin with Better ERA and xFIP, Faces Depleted Offense
Now, by no means do we consider Martin to be a great pitcher, but he does have both the better ERA (4.03) and the better xFIP (4.52) in this pitching matchup, which is a desirable combination for any underdog. And he did beat these Twins back in Chicago two starts back while allowing two runs and five hits with six strikeouts against just one walk.
Furthermore, just like his White Sox team, at least Davis is showing improvement as the season has gone on. In fact, he has now allowed three earned runs or less in four consecutive starts and in six of his last seven outings. And besides having the better ERA and xFIP, Martin’s overall Stuff+ or 94, while 6% below average, still rates 16 points better than Woods Richardson.
Also remember that the Twins were heavy sellers at the trade deadline, and their wRC+ of 90 vs. right-handers since August 1st with their new lineup is 7 points lower than the White Sox in the same span.
So, besides having arguably the better starting pitcher in this matchup, the White Sox also have the better wRC+ vs. righties since the trading deadline. Go for the value with the Sox as dogs.
MLB Pick: White Sox ML (+133) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
New York Yankees vs. Houston Astros
Tuesday, September 02, 2025 – 08:10 PM EDT at Daikin Park
Despite this being a matchup of two pitchers, each with an ERA in the 3.00s, we foresee a surprisingly higher-scoring game than this low total implies. We are backing the Over when Framber Valdez and the Astros host Max Fried and the Yankees in Dalkin Park.
Is History Repeating with Valdez Wearing Down Late?
The lefty Valdez is undoubtedly having a nice season, as he stands at 12-7 with a 3.18 ERA and 3.47 xFIP over 164.2 innings.
However, we have seen this movie before with Valdez having even better seasons before wearing down late in the year and then having a poor track record in the postseason. And he appeared to be in the middle of another late-season swoon before suddenly tossing seven scoreless innings while allowing three hits last time out.
However, that may have had more to do with facing a Colorado offense that is the worst in the majors against left-handed pitching. If we consider that it started as an outlier for that reason, Framber had failed to record a Quality Start in any of his previous four August starts while posting a 7.33 ERA and 4.96 xFIP over those efforts.
Valdez now goes from facing the worst offense in the league against left-handers to facing the best one, with the Yankees leading the majors in wRC+ against them at 118.
Fried Coming Off Worst Month, Also Faces Good Offense
The fellow southpaw Fried is having a great season in his first year with the Yankees, as he comes in at 14-5 with a 3.06 ERA and 3.50 xFIP. However, this total is set so low while available at 7.5 that Fried may not need to allow many runs to push this game Over the total if the Bronx Bombers get to Valdez the way we expect them to.
And just like Valdez, Max is coming off an August that was his worst month of the season, as he posted a 5.14 ERA in five starts. And that was not very fluky when you consider that he saw his walks rise to 3.21/9 for the calendar month while having an uncharacteristically high hard contact rate of 33.3%, well up from the 27.5% rate for the entire season.
Moreover, Fried is also facing an offense that has excelled against lefties, with the Astros ranking fourth in the league against them in wRC+ at 112.
In the end, while both pitchers have fine stats year-to-date, each of them is coming off their worst month of the year in August, and both offenses his lefties well. Bet on the Over at this low total.
MLB Pick: Yankees/Astros Over 7.5 (-125) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
