MLB Best Bets for September 17: Not a Lot of Tallies in Tampa Today
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LT Profits
- September 17, 2025
We had another winning night on Tuesday with a 2-1 record, with both winners being underdogs at odds of +130 and +113. That makes us a nice 92-74-4 over our last 170 Major League Baseball picks with no favorites higher than the -130s. We return on Wednesday to a full 15-game slate of MLB betting matchups with all 30 teams in action, and we have the three best bets that we feel have the most betting value at the currently posted MLB odds.
MLB best bets
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with our three selections for Wednesday consisting of two sizable underdog sides and one total. We also searched for the best available odds at the top sportsbooks for each of our selections.
- Blue Jays/Rays Under 8 (-110)
- Angels ML (+174)
- Rockies ML (+141)
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays
We think that runs will be hard to come by in Tampa on Wednesday night, so we are backing the Under when Kevin Gausman and the Blue Jays visit Ian Seymour and the Rays.
Gausman Off One of the Best Starts in the League This Year
Gausman comes in with a 3.44 ERA and 3.82 xFIP with his strikeout rate again approaching one batter per inning at his advancing age, at 8.66/9. He has seen a spike in his fastball velocity to 94.4 MPH from 93.9 MPH one year ago.
His splitter is biting better than ever with a 105 rating on Stuff+.
Best of all, Kevin remains in great current form as he allowed a grand total of two runs and 10 hits in 24 innings over his last three starts. Moreover, not only is he coming off his best start of the year, but it was in fact one of the best starts by any pitcher all season, a Complete Game 2-hit shutout of the Astros last Thursday with nine strikeouts and one walk!
That gem marked the 12th time in the last 14 starts that he has allowed three runs or less.
While Gausman did not need any bullpen help last time out, it is still good to know that the Toronto pen is ranked fifth in the league in xFIP at 4.03, including a more impressive 3.58 in September.
Seymour Solid in All Three Starts
Seymour is making his fourth start to go along with 13 relief appearances, and the rookie southpaw has gotten nice results regardless of the role.
He is 3-2 with a nice 3.16 ERA and 3.45 xFIP, although that has come over a smaller sampling than Gausman with 42.2 total innings. Nonetheless, Seymore has pitched well in all three of his starts, allowing three runs or fewer in each of them.
Ian has a very good K/BB ratio of 10.97/2.95 per nine innings, and that impressive K-Rate may be sustainable given his 13.5% swinging strike rate. Remember also that he posted double-digit strikeout rates at all his minor league stops.
He also has the support of the best bullpen in the majors in terms of xFIP, with Tampa Bay leading the league at 3.71 overall.
So, this is a matchup between a starter having a great season despite a modest W/L record in Gausman, a rookie that has performed well in Seymor, and two Top 5 bullpens. Bet the Under.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Milwaukee Brewers
We think the pitching matchup in Milwaukee on Wednesday is much closer than the seemingly overlay betting odds suggest. We are going for the value by betting on Jose Soriano and the Angels visiting Brandon Woodruff and the Brewers.
Soriano Combines “Throwing Grounders” with Strikeouts
It is very hard for us to resist betting on Soriano at this rather huge price point.
The right-hander is quietly having his best Major League season while approaching his prime at age 26 despite a seemingly nondescript 10-10 record and 4.13 ERA. However, his career best xFIP of 3.51 tells a truer story of how good he has been for the most part.
No pitcher in baseball “throws grounders” like Soriano, as Jose leads the majors in groundball rate by a rather large margin at 65.4%. For context, that is over 5% higher than Andre Pallante in second place at 60.2%.
Best of all, Soriano has induced that spectacular grounder rate while still maintaining a good strikeout rate of 8.16/9, a combination we always like to see. That combo is not surprising considering he has the heaviest sinker in the game at 97.3 MPH.
That nasty stuff is not lost on Stuff+ either, where Jose has four different pitches graded at 104 or higher.
Woodruff Very Good, but Overpriced?
Now, we have a great deal of respect for Woodruff, as our main issue here has to do with him being such a prohibitive favorite over a possibly underrated gem of a mound opponent.
Woody comes in at 6-2 with a 3.32 ERA and 3.41 xFIP that is fueled by a great K/BB ratio of 11.16/2.11 per nine innings. That is not to say that he does not bring any red flags however, starting with the small sample size of 59.2 innings over 11 starts.
That small sampling is due to not making his seasonal debut until July following shoulder surgery that forced Brandon to miss all of last season. And his velocity is not quite there yet this year at 93.1 MPH, down considerably from 95.8 MPH when he last pitched in 2023.
Nonetheless, he posted a 2.47 and 3.15 xFIP over the first eight starts of his return. He then appeared to hit a wall by allowing 13 runs (10 earned) in his next two starts.
Yes, some concern was alleviated with six shutout innings last time out, but that was against one of the worst offenses in baseball in Pittsburgh. Now, he must contend with an Angels lineup that is second in the majors in home runs vs. right-handed pitchers (167), trailing only the Yankees.
As much as we like Woodruff, he still carries a bit of injury concern, and we think he is severely overpriced here, facing a pitcher of Soriano’s caliber. Go for the value with the Halos at fat odds.
Miami Marlins vs. Colorado Rockies
We do not discriminate when it comes to value, and we think the worst team in baseball offers it in Colorado on Wednesday. We are supporting rookie McCade Brown and the Rockies as home underdogs facing Ryan Weathers and the Marlins.
Weathers Overpriced with Undeserved ERA
Weathers has good frontline numbers, at 2-1 with a spiffy 2.73 ERA and 3.95 xFIP, but we strongly suspect that those numbers are fraudulent. After all, those figures are over only six starts covering 29.2 innings for a guy that still has a career 4.82 ERA and 4.61 xFIP over 272.1 Major League innings.
Besides, notice the big ERA/xFIP differential of over a full run this season.
That modest xFIP is fueled by a mediocre K/BB ratio of 8.19/2.43 per nine innings, and Ryan has been extremely lucky with a .235 BABIP allowed. The prospects of the BABIP normalizing while pitching in Coors field is a scary one, and it is not as if Weathers can rely on much support from a Miami bullpen ranked 23rd in xFIP at 4.36.
Brown Has Nice Stuff, Comes off the Best Start
Now, we are very well aware that the rookie Brown is 0-4 in four starts with a bloated 9.88 ERA and 6.79 xFIP over 13.2 Major League innings. With that said, Brown is a physical specimen who stands at 6’6” with raw tools that made him a top pitching prospect before the start of the season.
Best of all, he may be finally realizing his vast potential coming off his best start in the big leagues.
After posting an atrocious 12.54 ERA and 7.97 xFIP over his first three starts, McCade rebounded by allowing two runs on five hits last time out. Then again, positive regression seemed inevitable when diving into his stuff.
Brown has a heavy 94.1 MPH sinker, and he compliments that with two other highly rated pitches on Stuff+ in his slider (110) and curveball (106).
This has us believing that his last start was “real”, and he now gets a chance to continue his improvement against a Miami offense ranked only 21st in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching overall at 97, and that figure is worse in September at 88 (12% below average).
What we have here is one of our favorite kinds of matchups with opposite regressions expected for the two starters, with Brown expected to trend upward and Weathers downward. Bet the Rockies to pull the upset.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
