MLB Best Bets for September 16: Fade White Sox in Favored Role on Tuesday
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LT Profits
- September 16, 2025
We had a nice night last Wednesday with a 2-1 record including an upset winner at odds of +149. That makes us a profitable 90-73-4 over our last 167 Major League Baseball picks with no favorites higher than the -130s. We return on Tuesday to a huge 16-game slate of MLB betting matchups with every team in action including one doubleheader. As usual, we have the three best bets that we feel have the most betting value at the currently posted MLB odds.
MLB best bets
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with our three selections for Tuesday consisting of two nice underdog sides we feel are undervalued and one total. We also searched for the best available odds at the top sportsbooks for each of our selections.
- Guardians ML (+130)
- Blue Jays-Rays Under 8.5 (-113)
- Orioles ML (+113)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Detroit Tigers
The Tigers hold a commanding 6.5-game lead over the Guardians in the AL Central, so this game means much more to Cleveland, which is three games out of the last wild card spot. We are supporting Joey Cantillo to help keep those playoff hopes alive visiting Casey Mize in Detroit.
Cantillo Comes Off Best Start of the Year
Joey Cantillo has been used in multiple roles this season, as he has made 10 starts and 21 relief appearances. However, he probably earned himself a permanent rotation spot during the Guardians’ quest for the playoffs by tossing eight scoreless innings last time out, allowing only four hits with five strikeouts and not a single walk.
That leaves Joey at 5-3 over his 31 total appearances with a very good 3.36 ERA and 3.71 xFIP. Moreover, he had allowed exactly one run in each of his previous three starts, leaving him with a total of three runs and 17 hits allowed over 24.2 innings in those last four outings with 20 strikeouts. The southpaw combines a great strikeout rate of 10.31/9 with a good groundball rate of 41.2%, which as our followers know is one of our favorite combinations.
Cantillo also has the support of a hot Cleveland bullpen that is up to fourth in the Major Leagues in ERA at 3.53, thanks to posting a 2.78 ERA along with a 2.79 xFIP this month of September.
Mize with Higher ERA and xFIP, Less Reliable Pen
Now, we do like Casey Mize, and he has been very good while going 14-5 with a 3.83 ERA and 4.02 xFIP. Notice however that his ERA and xFIP are both higher than those of Cantillo, inherently giving his opponent better value at an underdog price. And while Mize has a good strikeout rate of 8.07/9 and groundball rate of 40.2%, again, both marks are lower than Cantillo.
Casey also has a lacking soft/hard contact ratio of 12.7%/29.7%, and his slightly below average Stuff+ of 96 does not support a pitcher with a 14-5 record. Another red flag is that Mize has been rather fortunate to go 5-1 in his last seven starts, as he has been quite erratic recording only two Quality Starts during this span.
Furthermore, the Detroit bullpen has not been as reliable as it was last season, ranking only 20th in the majors in xFIP at 4.26, with that figure up to 4.53 along with a poor 4.98 ERA in September.
In the end, while Mize has the better record, Canillo has the better ERA, xFIP, K-Rate and bullpen support. Add the underdog price tag and bet on the Guardians to upset on Tuesday.
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays
This is a matchup of two seemingly underrated pitchers, each with an ERA in the 3.00s that are both in good current form. Bet on the Under when Ryan Pepiot and the Rays host Jose Berrios and the Blue Jays in Tampa.
Pepiot with Three Straight Scoreless Outings
Ryan Pepiot is having a much better season than his 11-10 record would suggest. He has a 3.59 ERA over 29 starts covering 163 innings, and he has usually done his part to give the Rays a chance to win by allowing three earned runs or less in 23 of those 29 starts. This includes a current streak of 15 scoreless innings over his last three starts while allowing a grand total of two hits, including five hitless innings in his last start on September 4th.
The only downside here is that the Rays are limiting Ryan’s innings late in the year, explaining why he went only five innings in those last three starts despite being practically unhittable. They are doing so because his 163 innings is easily a career high for the 28-year-old. However, take note of the 11 days off since his last start, so Pepiot may be allowed to work deeper into tonight’s game.
Besides, it is always comforting to know that the Tampa Bay bullpen leads the Major Leagues in xFIP at 3.71.
Berrios Also in Good Current Form
Now, we have frankly never been particularly high on Jose Berrios, and even his 9-5 record this season comes with an ERA barely below 4.00 (3.99) and a 4.36 xFIP. To be fair though, he has pitched well over his last eight starts, allowing two earned runs or less in six of those outings and three earned runs in another, with only one stinker over this span.
Interestingly, while his average fastball velocity for the season is 93.0 MPH, that mark was a season high 93.8 MPH in his last start where he limited the Astros to two runs and five hits. His recent improvement is also validated by a Location+ of 106 over the previously mentioned last eight starts, compared to 102 for the entire season.
Furthermore, the Blue Jays also have a Top 10 bullpen in xFIP, ranking seventh overall at 4.04 with that figure a better 3.68 in September.
So, what we have here is two pitchers having good seasons that are each in great current form with both having good bullpens supporting them. All that has us going Under this posted total.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Chicago White Sox
While the White Sox have been playing much better lately, we still question the team with the worst record in the American League by far at 57-94 being installed as a favorite. Thus, we are backing Dean Kremer and the Orioles over Shane Smith in Chicago on Tuesday.
Smith with Lucky ERA, High Hard Contact Rate
Shane Smith comes in with a commendable (considering his team) 6-7 record and a 3.78 ERA. However, he has not been as good as that ERA with his xFIP noticeably higher at 4.46. That xFIP is fueled by a high walk rate of 3.64/9, while the ERA is skewed by benefitting from a lucky .247 BABIP.
That BABIP has allowed him to pitch around a weak soft/hard contact ratio of 14.8%/33.0%, with the hard-contact scarier considering the extra traffic on the bases via all the walks. Those command issues get no help here facing a Baltimore offense that has become more disciplined this month, leading the league in walk percentage during September at 11.9%.
Shane also cannot count on much help from a White Sox bullpen ranked 28th out of 30 teams in xFIP at 4.54.
Kremer Healthier Now, More Strikeouts Expected
Dean Kremer does not have great frontline stats, entering this start at 9-10 with a 4.43 ERA, although it should be noted that his xFIP of 4.18 is better than his opponent Smith. He is also making his first start since September 5th, given a clean bill of health after recently battling forearm discomfort that may have contributed to his terrible recent form.
Dean stood with a decent 3.97 ERA through August 17th before allowing 14 runs in his next two starts and then getting pulled after three scoreless innings in his last outing due to the discomfort. We see him returning to his form prior to the last three efforts now that he is healthy and well rested.
It is also worth noting that Kremer’s mediocre strikeout rate of 7.50/9 should probably be better given his double-digit swinging strike rate of 10.2%. That should come into play here against a White Sox lineup ranked ninth in the majors in strikeout rate at 22.7% and fifth in that category during September at a whopping 27.0%.
In the end, despite their recent improved play, we still do not think that the White Sox deserve to be favored over any AL team, especially with Kremer arguably the betting pitcher. Bet the Orioles as dogs.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
