MLB Best Bets for September 10: Skenes Skews Scarce Scoring vs. Orioles
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LT Profits
- September 10, 2025
We went just 1-2 on Tuesday, but the winner being at odds of +112 limited the damage and we remain a profitable 88-72-4 over our last 164 Major League Baseball picks with no favorites higher than the -130s. We are back Wednesday for another full 15-game card of MLB betting matchups with every team in action, and we again have the three best bets that we feel have the most betting value at the currently posted MLB odds.
MLB best bets
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with our three selections for Wednesday consisting of one nice underdog side we feel is undervalued and two totals. We also searched for the best available odds at the top sportsbooks for each of our selections.
- Pirates-Orioles Under 7.5 (-118)
- Mets-Phillies Under 8 (-125)
- Cubs ML (+149)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Baltimore Orioles
We are looking for a nice pitching duel in Camden Yards on Wednesday between perhaps the best pitcher in baseball and an underrated hurler. We are backing the Under when Paul Skenes and the Pirates visit Tyler Wells and the Orioles.
Imagine if Skenes Pitched for a Better Team!
A strong case can be made for Paul Skenes being the best pitcher in baseball, and he is currently the heavy favorite on the betting odds to win the NL Cy Young Award. Keep in mind that this is while pitching for a last-place Pittsburgh team that is 17 games under .500 and while entering this contest with only a 10-9 record. It boggles the mind what his record would be if he pitched for a team that can score.
Paul leads the Major Leagues in ERA at 1.98 through 29 starts and 178 innings while ranking second in Pitching WAR at 5.8, behind only AL Cy Young favorite Taril Skubal (6.5). He combines a blazing fastball that averages 98.2 MPH and has topped 100 on many occasions with one of the best sliders in the game rated 131 on Stuff+ and impeccable command. All that has produced a great K/BB ratio of 10.14/2.03 per nine innings along with a 44.3% groundball rate.
Skenes has been so dominant that he has allowed two runs or less in 24 of his 29 starts, so the modest record is entirely due to a lack of run support. However, that suits our purposes just fine here as we are on the Under.
Wells Had Nice Return, Worth Following in September
Wells had a bright future after posting a 3.64 ERA in 2023, but he then suffered an elbow injury last season that required surgery (not Tommy John). He made his 2025 debut last Tuesday after six rehab starts and pitched well while getting the win, allowing two runs on a two-run homer in five innings with four strikeouts and not a single walk.
Tyler Wells is not a hard thrower, but the 92.9 MPH for his fastball in his return was slightly up from the 92.5 MPH in his fine 2023 season, which is certainly a positive sign. His strength is variety with a four-pitch arsenal and command, and he displayed both in his return. Every one of his secondary pitches graded out 100 or better on Stuff+ last week, and he was on point with a Location+ of 109.
We think Wells is a prime pitcher to follow the final month of the season while he is still mostly undervalued, and he is facing an anemic Pirates offense here ranked 29th out of 30 MLB teams in wRC+ vs. right-handers at 85.
The only reason we are not playing on Wells tonight is because he is matched up with the best pitcher on the National League. Still, we expect him to hold his own so bet on the Under here.
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies
We think that scoring runs will be difficult in the City of Brotherly Love on Wednesday night. Bet on the Under when Cristopher Sanchez and the Phillies host Clay Holmes and the Mets.
Sanchez Having Breakout Season with Strikeouts Up
The Phillies have been waiting for Cristopher Sanchez to break out since they first called him up in 2021, and he has done just that this season in his fifth year at the age of 28. He showed glimpses of greatness last season while posting 3.32 ERA and 3.19 xFIP, but he has taken things to a new level this year, going 12-5 while ranking sixth in the majors in ERA (2.60) and fifth in xFIP (2.83).
For good measure, Cristopher is third in the Major Leagues in WAR at 5.5, trailing only the two Cy Young favorites in each league (Skenes, Skubal). He has now reached elite status with a huge jimp in his strikeout rate to a career high 9.49/9, up from 7.58/9 last year while still maintaining a good walk rate of 2.14/9. Moreover, he is fourth in the majors in groundball-rate at 58.0%, thanks to a heavy 95.3 MPH sinker rated 113 on Stuff+.
The southpaw also puts the Mets at easily their worst offensive split, with a wRC+ of only 82 against left-handers on the road.
Converted Reliever Holmes Still in Good Form
Clay Holmes had been a reliever for his entire career prior to this season, in fact recording 30 saves for the crosstown Yankees last season. The Mets signed him in free agency during the offseason and almost immediately announced their plans to convert him into a starter. Well, it would appear that was a prudent decision.
Clay comes in at 11-7, but he may deserve better given his 3.61 ERA. Granted his strikeouts are down as a starter to 7.16/9 from 9.71/9 as a closer last year, but some of that has been by design as he is forced to pace himself in his new role. Besides, he has made up for the decreased strikeouts by ranking sixth in the league in groundball-rate at 55.5%, just two spots behind Sanchez.
Holmes has displayed a wider arsenal as a starter, and he has three pitches rated better than 100 on Stuff+, led by a lofty 117 for his slider. And the added workload of a starter has not affected him, as he has allowed three runs or less in seven of his last eight starts.
So, it appears that there are a lot of groundballs in the forecast for Philadelphia tonight with each starter in the Top 6 in groundball rate. Add in Sanchez reaching elite status and Holmes handing his new starter’s role well and go Under.
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves
We see good underdog value in Atlanta on Wednesday for a team that is heading for the playoffs facing a team that is playing out the string. We are supporting Jameson Taillon and the Cubs as decided underdogs visiting Chris Sale and the Braves.
Sale Innings Could be Monitored Rest of Way
The Braves are in unfamiliar territory, sitting at just 65-80 and out of playoff contention. Yes, tonight’s starter Chris Sale is the reigning NL Cy Young winner, but the southpaw just recently returned from a two-month stint on the injured list after breaking a rib, and he is now 36 years old. Thus, it would be not at all surprising if the Braves cap his innings going forward this final month of the season.
Now, Chris has remained very effective this year when he has made it to the mound, as his 5-4 record is deceiving considering his 2.38 ERA and 3.09 xFIP through 17 starts covering 102 innings. And he has been extremely sharp in his two starts since returning, allowing two runs in 12.1 innings with 17 strikeouts. Still, the projected quicker hook remains a concern, as does facing a potent Cubs offense that is eighth in the league in wRC+ vs. lefties at 106.
Also keep in mind that once Sale departs, the Atlanta bullpen is just an identical 22nd in the league in both ERA (4.32) and xFIP (4.30).
Taillon in Top Form Before Injury
The Cubs trail the Brewers by 6.5 games in the NL Central, but they are a virtual lock to make the playoffs while currently holding the top wild cars spot. They are activating Jameson Taillon for this start, and he was pitching his best ball of the season before unfortunately suffering a groin injury on August 24th. The good news is he has been given a clean bill of health to return, so the question becomes can he pick up where he left off at the time he was injured?
Jameson has decent frontline numbers at 9-6 with a 4.15 ERA, but he was pitching much better than that when he went down. In fact, he allowed two runs or less in eight of his last 10 starts, allowing exactly one run in four of those outings. A major reason for the improvement was an increased usage of the slider, which ranks a hefty 114 on Stuff+. As long as he continues featuring that pitch, then we do not think that the time off will hurt him.
It also helps to face a team that has thrown in the towel, and the Braves have now slipped to a below average wRC+ of 99 vs. righties for the season.
In the end, this overlay price in our minds is enough to offset the possibilities of Sale being allowed to work deeper than we expect and Taillon’s possible rust. Bet the Cubs to pull the upset.
More Picks from Our Experts
Don’t miss Donnie RightSide’s insight into today’s slate below. And be sure to visit our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice!
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
