MLB Playoff Best Bets for Tuesday: Crochet to Weave an Upset in Game 1
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LT Profits
- September 30, 2025
We finished the regular season at a profitable 97-79-4 over our last 180 Major League Baseball picks with quite a few underdog winners and no favorites higher than the -130s. We now return for the MLB Playoffs on Tuesday with three best bets that we feel have the most betting value at the currently posted MLB odds.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with our three selections for Tuesday consisting of a side in the Red Sox vs. Yankees battle in the Bronx and both the side & total in the Reds vs. Dodgers matchup. As usual, we also searched for the best available odds at the top sportsbooks for each of our selections.
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
Tuesday, September 30, 2025 – 6:08 PM EDT
Two bitter rivals square off in Yankee Stadium in Game 1 of the Wild Card Round, and we are backing Garrett Crochet and the Red Sox as underdogs while visiting Max Fried and the Yankees.
Top 4 Pitchers in WAR at an Underdog Price
Crochet was one of the best pitchers in the Major Leagues this season, as the southpaw finished 18-5 while leading the majors in xFIP at 2.64, finishing sixth in ERA at 2.59, and fourth in Pitching WAR at 5.9. To put that WAR in context, the only American League pitcher with a better one is probable Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal.
And there is nothing fluky about those rankings, as Garrett combines a great K/BB ratio of 11.18/2.02 per nine innings with a terrific groundball rate of 48.3%. That is what happens when you have a vast five-pitch arsenal where every pitch is rated above 100 on Stuff+, including probably the best slider in the game, rated 141. In fact, Crocket’s overall Stuff+ of 116 tied with Skubal for the best in the majors.
Now, we totally get that the Yankees led the league in wRC+ vs. left-handed pitching this season at a hefty 121, but Crochet was not impressed in his last three starts against them this year. He was a perfect 3-for-3 in Quality Starts while allowing five runs and 14 hits in 21.1 innings with 30 strikeouts vs. three walks! And this is not to mention being able to get probably the second-best pitcher in the American League at an underdog price here.
Fried Not as Good Plus Bullpen Concerns
Now, we have nothing against Fried as he had a fine season in his first year with the Yankees. In fact, he finished with the better record among these starters at 19-5 with a 2.86 ERA, 3.41 xFIP, and 4.7 WAR. Our issue here is the price, as, besides the W/L record, Crochet ranked better in ERA, xFIP, and WAR, and Fried’s record was helped by better run support, which cannot be counted on here, given how well Crochet handled the Yankees this year.
Thus, as much as we like Max, we feel he is overpriced in this situation. He was also a bit shaky the last time he faced the Red Sox on September 13th and was relatively lucky to escape, allowing just two runs. He lasted only 5.1 innings to fall short of a Quality Start while surrendering nine hits plus two walks.
And another concern is the struggling Yankees bullpen down the stretch, as that unit has posted a 5.13 ERA since September 1st. Comparatively, the Boston pen posted a 3.45 ERA in that same span.
So, not only do the Red Sox have the higher-rated starting pitcher in this matchup, but they also have a hotter bullpen. That combination has us betting on Boston as an underdog in Game 1.
The Pick: Red Sox ML (+117) at BetOnline
Cincinnati Reds vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Tuesday, September 30, 2025 – 9:08 PM EDT
We are double-dipping in Game 1 of the wild card round in Los Angeles, betting the visiting Reds at what we feel is an overlay price with Hunter Greene facing Blake Snell of the Dodgers, as well as the Under.
Snell Missed Time and Walk Issues Persist
Snell is a former two-time Cy Young winner who can be filthy when he is on top of his game, and he probably deserved better than a 5-4 record this year given his 2.35 ERA and 3.07 xFIP. Those frontline stats were over only 11 starts and 61.1 innings, though, as he spent four months on the injured list with inflammation of his left (throwing) shoulder.
Yes, the southpaw posted nice numbers when he did make it to the mound, but the reason that his xFIP is noticeably higher than his ERA is that the walk issues that have plagued him even in his best seasons continue to persist. That walk rate was an unsettling 3.82/9, and while it was over a short sample as mentioned, the rate was in line with the 3.81/9 over 104 innings last season.
Blake did manage to pitch around those free passes with a nice strikeout rate of 10.57/9 and a very good groundball rate of 48.7%, which was its highest point since 2020. And he also benefits from facing a Cincinnati lineup that ranked 26th in wRC+ vs. lefties this season at a scant 79. But we still think Snell is a big overlay on Tuesday given his mound opponent.
Greene Could Have Been a Cy Young Contender
Greene also missed a chunk of the season due to injury, although at least he got in 107.2 innings of work. And what he did over his starts would have put him in contention for the Cy Young himself had he pitched for a full season, as he finished with a 2.76 ERA and 3.27 xFIP while being the hardest thrower in baseball.
And we mean that literally, as while Paul Skenes officially led the majors in average fastball velocity at 98.2 MPH, Greene would have held that mark had he qualified at more than 1 MPH faster at 99.5, topping 100 MPH regularly! But Greene is not a one-trick pony as he also has an outstanding slider rated 137 on Stuff+, helping lead to a great strikeout rate of 11.03/9 while ranking fourth among pitchers with over 100 innings in swinging strike rate at 15.4%,
Betting the Side
Add in better command with a more manageable walk rate of 2.17/9, and a case can be made for Greene being the better starter in this game. But even if you consider the starters to be close to even, Greene and the Reds still hold all the value at these inflated odds, so we are betting on Cincinnati at a fat price.
The Pick: Reds ML (+179) at Bookmaker
Betting the Total
With all that said, we still expect a good old-fashioned pitcher’s duel with Snell facing a Reds team that has struggled with lefties, so we are backing the Under in this contest as well.
The Pick: Under 7 (-108) at Heritage Sports
More Picks from Our Experts
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
