MLB Best Bets for June 29: Expect Lots of Runs in Houston
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Rainman M.
- June 29, 2025
Top MLB Pick: Cubs-Astros First-Five Over 4 (-107) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top sportsbooks have released their betting odds for today’s baseball action, and three games interest me as worth investing in:
- Padres vs. Reds
- Rockies vs. Brewers
- Cubs vs. Astros
Before placing your wagers, dive into our expert betting breakdown.
San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds
Sunday, June 29, 2025 – 01:40 PM EDT at Great American Ball Park
Stephen Kolek’s Matchup Details
San Diego starts Stephen Kolek today.
Regarding his outlook today, the most damning thing about Kolek is not even the fact that he’s allowed a combined total of eleven earned runs in his last three starts.
While this fact suggests that his form is poor, such facts are not that interesting by themselves, because they do not suggest a reason as to why one should expect continuity if one does not want to assume continuity.
Kolek must be expected to continue to struggle today because of his struggles against left-handed batters. They bat .297 and slug .486 against him. Even regardless of his form, Kolek is worth fading against a lefty-heavy lineup.
I like Cincinnati’s lineup today because it is spearheaded by left-handed batters.
- TJ Friedl, the team’s BA leader, is left-handed.
- Elly De La Cruz, the team’s leader in home runs and RBIs, is a switch-hitter who hits better against righties — he slugs .553 against them.
- Gavin Lux, another one of Cincinnati’s top hitters, likewise bats left-handed.
These guys will help the Reds score enough runs to lead through five innings.
Cincinnati’s Stronger Pitcher
Nick Lodolo starts for the Reds today.
Whereas it is for Kolek, form is not an issue for Lodolo. Lodolo enters today’s game having allowed a combined total of three earned runs in his last two starts, which took place against the Twins and Yankees, respectively.
Lodolo’s outlook is strong today against a San Diego lineup that is 2-for-27 against him. Collectively, the Padres have over three times as many strikeouts as hits against him.
While the data sample is small, the fact that the Padres rank 27th with a .341 slugging rate against Lodolo’s pitches from lefties suggests that they will continue to struggle against him.
The matchup clearly favors Lodolo.
MLB Pick: Reds First-Five -0.5 (-103) at BetOnline
Colorado Rockies vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Sunday, June 29, 2025 – 02:10 PM EDT at American Family Field
The Improved German Marquez
Colorado starts German Marquez today.
Don’t even look at his ERA. Too many bettors become prejudiced in their decisions by a pitcher’s ERA.
This prejudice is problematic because ERA is a season-long statistic, and the baseball season is very long.
Marquez’s ERA is so high because he struggled mightily in April and the beginning of May. But how he performed at that time is irrelevant to his current form — we are now nearing the end of June.
He enters today having allowed a combined total of one earned run in his last three starts. His ongoing excellence is part of what makes it ridiculous that the Rockies are such big underdogs in this matchup.
Milwaukee’s Struggling Starter
Milwaukee starts Chad Patrick today.
Unlike Marquez, Patrick is struggling mightily. He has allowed at least four earned runs in each of his last three starts.
He is giving up a lot of home runs and a lot of hard contact in general. He has allowed at least one home run in each of his last three starts. In his last start, he yielded hard contact with over 60 percent frequency.
That last start came against Pittsburgh, which is one of the worst teams at hitting on the road.
Colorado’s Bats Are Ready
One should look to bet on the Rockies because their historically bad start to the season positions them as a possible strong value play now that they have improved so much.
In addition to boasting the better starting pitcher today, their lineup will also outperform Milwaukee’s.
The improved Rockies’ lineup matches up excellently against Patrick. In June, they rank eighth with a .472 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
With better pitching and hitting, the Rockies are a must-bet at plus money. Because they used to be so bad, we can now take their run-line at plus money, which means that we’ll win our first-five bet even if they’re only tied.
MLB Pick: Rockies First-Five +0.5 (+135) at BetOnline
Chicago Cubs vs. Houston Astros
Sunday, June 29, 2025 – 02:10 PM EDT at Daikin Park
Trend for Houston’s Lineup
Hitting-wise, the Astros are in a great spot today because they are coming off a loss.
Their lineup comes with extra force in the game following a loss.
In three of their last four games that directly followed a loss, the Astros scored at least eight runs. They scored, in those three games, 10, 13, and 8 runs respectively.
The one exception came when they encountered Yusei Kikuchi, who is pitching terrifically this year, as evident in his 2.79 ERA.
Struggling Jameson Taillon
Chicago’s starter today, Jameson Taillon, is no Kikuchi.
Taillon enters today’s game having allowed a combined total of 13 earned runs in his last two starts. In those two starts, his home run allowed total was as high as his strikeout total.
He will continue to struggle against a Houston lineup that bats .327 and slugs .462 against him.
Outlook for Framber Valdez
The over/under for this game is as low as it is because of the success that Houston’s starter today, Framber Valdez, has enjoyed this year as a whole.
However, Valdez has proven to be vulnerable against difficult matchups. For example, he allowed five earned runs against a Giants lineup that ranks sixth in slugging against his favorite pitches from lefties.
San Francisco’s success against Valdez, given that the Giants rank a paltry 21st in runs per game, is telling. Matchup details matter greatly.
The Cubs have a much stronger lineup, ranking second in runs per game. They also match up better — in fact, a team can’t match up as well against Framber Valdez as the Cubs do.
They rank first with a .467 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from lefties.
These details create great value in an over play because they negate the basis for the low over/under, which is oddsmakers’ respect for Valdez. The low total fails to account for specific game-to-game matchup details.
MLB Pick: First-Five Over 4 (-107) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
