MLB Best Bets for June 27: Pirates Make Peterson Walk Plank in Pittsburgh
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LT Profits
- June 27, 2025
Top MLB Pick: Pirates ML (+143) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
The winning continued for us on Wednesday as we went 2-1, including an underdog winner at odds of +146, leaving us at 53-31-2 over our last 86 Major League Baseball picks. We now return on Friday to a 15-game slate of MLB betting matchups with every team in action, and we have the three best bets that we feel have the most betting value at the currently posted MLB odds.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with our three selections for Friday consisting of two underdog sides and one total. Most importantly, we always search for the best odds available at the top sportsbooks.
New York Mets vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Friday, June 27, 2025 – 06:40 PM EDT at PNC Park
We see nice value in Pittsburgh on Friday, where we are backing Mitch Keller and the Pirates at home underdog odds when they host David Peterson and the Mets.
Top 20 in WAR
A case can be made for Mitch Keller being the unluckiest pitcher in baseball this season. He somehow has a 1-10 record with a 4.02 ERA and 3.91 xFIP. Besides the xFIP belying the W/L record, he is also in the Top 20 in the Major Leagues in Pitching WAR, in fact tied for 16th at 2.1! That makes him a prime candidate for positive regression, which always makes him attractive at a nice underdog price as he is here.
Mitch is primarily a fastball/slider pitcher, with the latter becoming his most frequently thrown pitch this season. And there is a good reason for that as the slider is his highest rated pitch on Stuff+ at 105. That has helped improve Keller’s groundball rate to 45.5% from 39.4% last year, as well as lowering his hard contact rate to 28.9% from 33.1%. Moreover, he is keeping the ball in the yard with the sixth lowest home run rate allowed in the majors at 0.57/9.
Once Keller departs, the Pittsburgh bullpen has been much improved this month, ranking sixth in the league in ERA during June at 2.93.
Regression in Progress?
Now, while we get that David Peterson is 5-3 with a 2.98 ERA this season after going 10-3 with a 2.90 ERA over 21 starts covering 121 innings last year, we are still not convinced that he is that good. The ERA came with a lackluster 4.10 xFIP last season, and although that figure is better at 3.51 in 2025, his peripherals are simply not those of a sub-3.00 ERA pitcher.
For starters, he has a weak K/BB ratio of 7.74/3.08 per nine innings, and his hard-contact ratio of 33.0% is up from an already above average 30.6% last season. Moreover, he scores a low 89 overall on Stuff+ with not a single pitch rated above the average 100 mark. Even his average fastball velocity of 92.4 MPH is down from his already modest 93.1 MPH last year.
And perhaps the best news regarding our wager here is that Peterson’s expected regression may already be in progress after allowing five earned runs on six hits plus three walks in only four innings last time out.
This is our favorite kind of matchup with two pitchers having opposite expected regressions. We are betting on the Pirates at a big price with Keller deserving much better than a 1-10 record over an overachieving Peterson.
Predicted Score: Pirates 5 – Mets 4
MLB Pick: Pirates ML (+143) at Heritage Sports
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Cleveland Guardians
Friday, June 27, 2025 – 07:10 PM EDT at Progressive Field
We are not so sure the right team is favored at Progressive Field on Friday. We are betting on the seemingly underrated Luis Ortiz and the Guardians as underdogs when they host Sonny Gray and the Cardinals.
Top 10 in Velocity
Luis Ortiz may be just 4-8 with a 4.30 ERA, but he has pitched much better than those frontline numbers would indicate. In fact, he probably has the best peripheral statistics of his four-year career and could be reaching his prime at the age of 26. He combines an excellent strikeout rate with a good groundball rate, which is a combination we always like to see, and his xFIP of 3.64 paints a better picture of his talents than his ERA.
In a nutshell, Luis throws gas with an average fastball velocity of 96.4 MPH. For context, that is currently the 10th fastest average velocity among all qualified Major League starters, which has led to a career-best strikeout rate of 10.03/9. But Ortiz is more than just a “thrower” though as he impressively has five pitches he has thrown over 12% of the time. That has kept batters off balance and unable to just sit on the heater, helping to lead to a good 47.1% groundball rate.
We expect good things from Ortiz going forward with his ERA converging closer to his peripherals, and let us not forget that he is coming off his best start of the year. He tossed six scoreless innings last out with 10 strikeouts while allowing just two hits.
Overvalued?
Now, we have nothing against Sonny Gray, who enters this contest at 7-2 with a 3.72 ERA and a very good 3.11 xFIP. It is just that when comparing the metrics of these two starters, we are not so convinced that Gray should be favored on the road in this spot, as we have them pretty close to even despite the differences in the records and ERA.
Sonny does have a nice strikeout rate of his own at 9.57/9, but that is still lower than Ortiz’s mark and Gray has an ordinary 38.7% groundball rate. In addition, Gray’s swinging strike rate of 11.8% is down from 13.4% last year, which may make it hard to maintain his current K-Rate, and he has an above average hard contact rate of 31.5%.
Also, consider that Sonny may not get too much run support given the home/away disparity of the St. Louis offense. The Cardinals have a good overall wRC+ of 112 at home, but that figure plummets to 93 when they are on the road as they are here.
So, we have this pitching matchup much closer than the frontline stats of these starters would indicate, and the Cardinals have had their struggles offensively on the road. That is enough for us to back the Guardians as home underdogs in Cleveland Friday.
Predicted Score: Guardians 5 – Cardinals 3
MLB Pick: Guardians ML (+113) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Chicago Cubs vs. Houston Astros
Friday, June 27, 2025 – 08:10 PM EDT at Daikin Park
We foresee a sneaky pitching duel in Houston on Friday in a matchup of two young pitchers with good potential. Thus, we are supporting the Under when Cade Horton and the Cubs visit Brandon Walter and the Astros in Daikin Park.
Good Velocity Plus Variety
The rookie Cade Horton appears to have earned a permanent rotation spot as the Cubs opted to send Ben Brown down to the minor leagues instead when activating Shota Imanaga from the injured list. And with good reason, as Horton has allowed three runs or less in six of his seven starts in his first taste of the Major Leagues, and he allowed four runs in the other start.
The end-result for Cade has been a 3-1 record with a 3.73 ERA. He has had nice fastball velocity at 95.6 MPH, but he is not a one-trick pony as he has three other pitches that he has thrown over 11% of the time. Moreover, two of those secondary pitches have been high quality with his slider rated 113 on Stuff+ and his cutter rated 101. That mix has also led to a nice 49.2% groundball rate, so it appears Horton has a bright future in the big leagues.
Moreover, once he departs, the Cubs’ bullpen currently ranks fifth in all of baseball with a 3.37 ERA.
Great Command Ratio
Fellow rookie Brandon Walter is also showing signs of having a nice Major League career, even coming off his worst start of the year in Anaheim, where he allowed seven runs in six innings. He still had six strikeouts against just one walk in those six frames, continuing his outstanding K/BB ratio so far this season of 9.51/0.76 per nine innings.
Also, Brandon has combined that great command ratio with an excellent groundball rate of 52.9%, a combination that generally leads to success. And he has indeed pitched well, with a still-good 3.80 ERA even while being skewed by the last stinker, and a stellar 2.52 xFIP through 23.2 innings. Add a good soft-contact rate of 21.4% and a biting slider rated 115 on Stuff+ and Walter may be a permanent fixture in the rotation as well.
Moreover, the Houston bullpen has been even better than the Cubs’ unit in terms of ERA, ranking second in the league at 3.22.
To summarize, what we have here is two promising rookie pitchers with seemingly bright futures supported by two good bullpens. That recipe has us betting on the Under in Houston Friday night.
Predicted Score: Cubs 4 – Astros 2
MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (-105) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
