MLB Best Bets for June 25: Lopez Grades Out Straight A’s in Detroit
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LT Profits
- June 25, 2025
Top MLB Pick: Athletics ML (+146) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We nailed yet another 3-0 sweep last night including one underdog winner with Texas, leaving us a scorching 51-30-2 over our last 83 Major League Baseball picks. We return on Wednesday to another 15-game slate of MLB betting matchups with every team in action, and we again have the three best bets that we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds available.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with our three selections for Wednesday consisting of one underdog side and two totals. Let’s dive into a detailed breakdown before you lock in your bets at top sportsbooks.
Athletics vs. Detroit Tigers
Wednesday, June 25, 2025 – 06:40 PM EDT at Comerica Park
We are looking for an upset in Motown on Wednesday, where we are calling for a seemingly underrated Jacob Lopez and the Athletics to prevail over a regressing Jack Flaherty and the Tigers in Detroit.
Rounding to Form
The southpaw Jacob Lopez comes in at a lackluster 1-4 with only a 4.25 ERA and 4.36 xFIP, but do not let those frontline stats fool you. You see, those numbers are over only 36 innings and are skewed by one bad start where he was charged with six earned runs in 1.1 innings. He has been mostly excellent over his other outings and has been almost unhittable in his last three starts.
Jacob allowed a total of just one run and 11 hits in those last three outings with an impressive 23 strikeouts over 16 innings. That raises his strikeout rate for the season to 12,25/9, and while yes, it is still over just 36 innings, that rate is supported by a career best swinging strike rate of 12.8%.
Granted, Lopez will not blow anyone away with a 90.7 MPH fastball, but he has kept batters off balance with a nice four-pitch arsenal, and he is occasionally working in a fifth pitch with a still-developing 90.3 MPH sinker. In addition to the high K-Rate, that repertoire has also helped lower his hear contact rate to 28.7% from 31.0% last season.
Not as Good as Last Year
Jack Flaherty is coming off a career year in 2024 where he finished 13-7 with a 3.17 ERA and a 3.00 xFIP that ranked fourth best in the Major Leagues. However, he has been down in several key metrics all year compared to last season, and yet still carried a 3.41 ERA into his start on June 14th, which we thought at the time made him a prime regression candidate.
Well, that has manifested itself in a big way, as he was roughed up for seven earned runs in 4.2 innings that day at home against the Reds, and he was then worse in his last start allowing eight earned runs in 2.1 innings in Tampa! That has now ballooned the ERA to 4.83, and he still owns a poor soft/hard contact ratio of 12.5% / 34.5% while putting extra traffic on the bases, with his walk rate of 3.56/9 way up from 2.11/9 last season.
Moreover, he is facing an underrated young Athletics’ offense that is quietly 10th in the majors in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers at 108, as well as 11th in OPS at .737.
So, while Flaherty may not be quite as bad as his last two starts, his regression was inevitable. Add Lopez’s raging form to the mix and bet on the Athletics as decided underdogs on the road Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Athletics 6 – Tigers 4
MLB Pick: Athletics ML (+146) at Heritage Sports
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets
Wednesday, June 25, 2025 – 07:10 PM EDT at Citi Field
We foresee a pitching duel in Citi Field Wednesday night, so we are betting on the Under when Clay Holmes and the Mets host Didier Fuentes and the Braves.
Converted Starter
The Mets have converted Clay Holmes into a starter this season after he had been a reliever for his entire Major League career, including recording 30 saves for the crosstown Yankees last season. Well, we would say that the conversion has been a success, as he comes in with a 7-4 record and a 3.04 ERA that ranks a commendable 22nd in the majors through 15 starts covering 83 innings.
Clay is primarily a sinker/slider pitcher with those pitches rated 100 and 114 respectively on Stuff+, and his arm has adapted well to the extra workload of a starter so far. His strikeout rate is not what it was when he was a reliever, as it sits at 7.92/9 thus far, but his best pitches are more conducive to generating groundballs, and he has done that at an excellent 53.6% rate.
Holmes has also been ultra consistent in allowing three runs or less in 13 of his 15 starts, and he allowed exactly four runs in the other two outings. He is facing an Atlanta offense that has not been as potent as in past seasons, especially against right-handed pitchers on the road with a wRC+ of 92 (or 8% below average).
Improving Bullpen
Didier Fuentes is just 20 years old, but he was called up to take the rotation spot of injured ace Chris Sale, albeit with mediocre stats in his Major League debut Friday, allowing four earned runs in five innings with just three strikeouts. Still, he did average 96.2 MPH on his fastball, continuing his improvement in that department after averaging around 93 MPH in the minors last year and then jumping to 95.2 MPH at Triple-A at the time of his recall this year.
That is obviously an excellent sign for someone so young, and Didier is already a favorite in the Stuff+ metrics. He garnered an overall Stuff+ of 113 for his debut as well as a Pitching+ of 116, and each of his four pitches had a Stuff+ of 107 or higher led by 117 for the fastball. With his probably nervous debut out of the way, we are looking for his performance to more closely align with those metrics in his second start tonight.
And after Fuentes departs this contest, the Atlanta bullpen has improved this month after a slow start. That unit has now snuck into the Top 10 in the majors in xFIP, currently eighth at 3.87, getting to that point by ranking third in June at 3.31.
So, with Holmes transitioning well to the starting role, Fuentes is expected to start fulfilling his enormous potential in his second start, and an improving Braves’ pen, go Under the total in Flushing.
Predicted Score: Mets 4 – Braves 3
MLB Pick: Under 9.5 (-125) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Houston Astros
Wednesday, June 25, 2025 – 08:10 PM EDT at Daikin Park
We feel that runs will be at a premium in Houston on Wednesday. Therefore, we are backing the Under when Zach Wheeler and the Phillies visit Colton Gordon and the Astros in Daikin Park.
Third in xFIP
Not only is Zach Wheeler now the unquestioned ace of the Phillies rotation this season at 7-2, but he has also been one of the best pitchers in baseball with a 2.61 ERA through 93 innings and an identical 2.61 xFIP that is ranked third in the majors. This is a pitcher that posted a career best 2.57 ERA for the Phils last season and he is showing no signs of slowing down now even at the age of 36.
In fact, Zack owns a career-best strikeout rate of 11.42/9 so far, making for a nice command ratio accompanied by a walk rate of 2.13/9. He has even seen his average fastball velocity go up despite his advancing age, to 96.0 MLH from 95.3 last year. That has contributed to a 13.9% swinging strike rate that is also a lifetime-best, as well as to an excellent soft/hard contact ratio of 19.4% / 24.0%.
For more validation, Wheeler’s overall Stuff+ of 111 is up a tick from 110 last year and he has four different pitches rated 112 or higher.
Better Than the ERA
While excellence is always expected from Wheeler, the key to this Under prediction is Colton Gordon, who comes in at 2-1 through seven starts with a 4.54 ERA. His peripherals are much better than the ERA though, beginning with his xFIP being more than a full run lower at 3.50. He has also allowed a total of five earned runs over his last three starts, allowing two earned runs in two of those outings and one earned run in the other.
Colton has displayed very good command for a rookie getting his first taste of the Major Leagues this year, with a nice K/BB ratio of 8.58/1.26 per nine innings. He has done that with a vast five-pitch arsenal, throwing four of those pitches over 10% of the time, led by a great slider rated 116 on Stiff+. Also, his command ratio is validated by a 111 rating on Location+.
Thus, we see both pitchers having success in this matchup between a proven veteran in Wheeler and a promising rookie in Gordon. That is enough for us to bet on the Under in this spot Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Phillies 3 – Astros 2
MLB Pick: Under 7.5 (-115) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
