MLB Best Bets for June 24: Rangers to Lasso Orioles in Camden Yards
-
LT Profits
- June 24, 2025
Top MLB Pick: Rangers ML (+115) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
We nailed the 3-0 sweep on Friday including two nice underdog winners, leaving us at 48-30-2 over our last 80 Major League Baseball picks. We now return on Tuesday to a full 15-game slate of MLB betting matchups with every team in action, and we have the three best bets that we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds available at the top-rated sportsbooks.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with our three selections for Tuesday being sides consisting of one small favorite, one underdog, and one total.
Texas Rangers vs. Baltimore Orioles
Tuesday, June 24, 2025 – 06:35 PM EDT at Oriole Park at Camden Yards
We are looking for a small upset in Camden Yards on Tuesday, and are thus backing Jacob Latz and the Rangers when they travel to Baltimore to take on Charlie Morton and the Orioles.
Facing Improving Offense
The veteran Charlie Morton is now 41 years old, and he was so bad at the start of this first season with the Orioles that he was delegated to the bullpen in late April. And while he has been admittedly better since getting re-inserted into the rotation in late May, the bottom line is that he is still 4-7 overall with an unsightly 5.64 ERA, and he has had poor command with a high walk rate of 4.30/9, which is up from an already weak 3.54/9 with the Braves last season.
Charlie’s fastball is down to 94.0 MPH while garnering just an 85 rating on Stuff+, which does not mesh well with his career-worst Location+ of 95. His most frequently thrown pitch is now his cutter at only 81.4 MPH, and while that has resulted in a decent groundball rate of 42.3%, that is still down from 46.3% last year and it is accompanied by a lackluster soft/hard contact ratio of 14.3% / 32.7%.
He is facing a Texas offense that was one of the worst offenses in baseball through the end of May, but that has turned things around nicely this month. While the Rangers still have only an overall wRC+ of 89 vs. right-handers, that figure is an above average 103 here in June including 114 on the road.
Effective So Far
Jacob Latz has pitched mostly out of the bullpen, as this is his second start to go along with 16 relief appearances. However, he has been effective whenever called upon with a 3.26 ERA over 30.1 innings, and his excellent swinging strike rate of 15.2% points to positive regression expected in his already good strikeout rate of 8.90/9. He can also get some help here in that regard from an aggressive Baltimore offense that ranks fifth in the majors in offensive strikeout rate at 24.0%.
Just as importantly, Jacob should be sufficiently stretched out enough to provide typical starter’s innings after working 5.2 innings as a bulk reliever last time out. And that was a stellar outing also as he allowed just one run on a solo homer and three hits.
Moreover, the offense is not the only improved aspect for the Rangers this month, as the bullpen has been one of the best in baseball in June while ranking second in ERA at a scant 2.34!
In the end, we do not think Morton deserves to be a decided favorite given his declining form at the age of 41 this year, while we think an effective Latz and an improving Texas bullpen can keep the Orioles in check. Bet on the Rangers as underdogs in this spot.
Predicted Score: Rangers 5 – Orioles 4
MLB Pick: Rangers ML (+115) at Bookmaker
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Cleveland Guardians
Tuesday, June 24, 2025 – 06:40 PM EDT at Progressive Field
In this battle of southpaws, we give Eric Lauer of the Blue Jays a bigger edge over Logan Allen of the Royals than this posted line would indicate. This has us betting on Toronto as small road favorites while visiting Cleveland on Tuesday.
Earned Rotation Spot
Eric Lauer has made 10 appearances this season including four as a starter, but his six relief appearances were either in long relief or as a bulk reliever following an opener, so he is accustomed to extended innings. And his last two starts may have cemented Lauer a permanent spot in the Toronto rotation.
Eric is 3-1 with a spiffy 2.29 ERA over 35.1 innings overall. He has been excellent in his last two starts, allowing a total of three runs in 9.1 innings with 12 strikeouts against just two walks. Furthermore, his five innings last time out were a season high, so he should be in line for a true starter’s workload tonight for as long as he continues to be effective.
And he has been quite consistent, allowing no more than three runs in any of his four starts and not a single run in five of his six long-relief appearances. He now gets to face a Cleveland offense that tanks just 26th in the majors in wRC+ against left-handers at a measly 74.
Poor Command Ratio
We have never been particularly high on Logan Allen since he came up in 2023, and he has not done anything to change our opinion of him this year. He may be coming in with a winning 5-4 record, but that comes with a 4.21 ERA and a considerably worse 4.97 xFIP over 14 outings (13 starts) covering 66.1 innings. That xFIP is the fifth worst in the Major Leagues among pitchers with at least 60 innings pitched.
Moreover, it is easy to see why that xFIP is so poor when considering his awful K/BB ratio of 6.78/4.05 per nine innings. That bad ratio is validated by a puny 7.5% swinging strike rate and a below average Location+ of 94, not to mention a soft overall Stuff+ of 93. None of that is surprising given Logan’s average fastball velocity of just 90.7 MPH being the lowest of his brief three-year career.
Now he must deal with a Toronto offense that has been at its best against left-handed pitchers, ranking sixth in baseball in wRC+ against them at 114.
So, not only do we give Lauer a big pitching edge here, but the Blue Jays have also had a much more prolific offense against southpaws. That is enough for us to lay the small chalk with Toronto on the road Tuesday.
Predicted Score: Blue Jays 5 – Guardians 3
MLB Pick: Blue Jays ML (-110) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Kansas City Royals
Tuesday, June 24, 2025 – 07:40 PM EDT at Kauffman Stadium
We do not expect a ton of scoring in Kansas City on Tuesday, so we are supporting the Under when Kris Bubic and the Royals host Taj Bradley and the Rays in Kauffman Stadium.
Best Form Ever
Kris Bubic had Tommy John surgery in 2013, and he is making his return to the starting rotation for the first time since then this season after working out of the bullpen last year. Well, the results have been much better than the mediocre 6-4 record would indicate, as he is fifth in the Major Leagues with his 2.12 ERA. Also, his improved velocity that often follows Tommy John has led to a very good strikeout rate of 9.32/9.
As good as the K-Rate is, there is also room for improvement there given his very good swinging strike rate of 14.5%. And even when opposing batters have managed to make contact, Kris has an excellent soft/hard contact ratio of 21.8% / 25.3%. Remember that Bubic may be reaching his peak as he is still only 27 years old even after missing time, so we see no reason why this great form cannot continue.
The southpaw now also puts the Rays at their worst offensive split, as they have a below average wRC+ of 94 against lefties, with that figure plummeting all the way down to 74 on the road.
Will “Good” Bradley Show Up
Taj Bradley has been maddeningly inconsistent this season while going 4-5 with a 4.95 ERA but a better 4.13 xFIP in 15 starts covering 80 innings. He has the tools to be a very good Major League pitcher and has been dominant at times this year, but when he has been bad, he has been truly bad such as in his last start, where he allowed seven runs (six earned) in just 1.1 innings.
The metrics show that Taj has a good strikeout rate of 8.21/9 and a very good groundball rate of 49.1%, a combination that would normally win you a lot of games. He has also sharply improved both his soft contact rate (up to 17.7% from 10.2% last year) and hard contact rate (down to 28.4% from 39.4%), but again, without the expected results.
Those are all signs of expected positive regression though, and we could see the “good” Bradley tonight against a Kansas City offense ranked 27th in wRC+ against righties at 87, with that figure dropping to 72 here at home.
Thus, we think both pitchers have a chance at success tonight, especially when factoring in the poor handedness splits of the two offenses. This leads us to betting on the Under in Kansas City on Tuesday.
Predicted Score: Royals 4 – Rays 2
MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (-103) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
