MLB Best Bets for June 20: A’s Offense Springs Past Bibee
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LT Profits
- June 20, 2025
Top MLB Pick: Athletics ML (+109) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We had a 1-1 split on Wednesday with our third play rained out, although the winner was at +124 odds and we are still 45-30-2, 60% over our last 77 Major League Baseball picks. We return on Friday to another full 15-game slate of MLB betting matchups with every team in action. Again, we have the three best bets that we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds available in top sportsbooks.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with our three selections for Friday being sides consisting of two underdogs and one small favorite.
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Friday, June 20, 2025 – 07:05 PM EDT at George M. Steinbrenner Field
In a matchup of two pitchers possibly in the process of opposite regressions, we are backing Shane Baz and the Rays hosting Jack Flaherty and the Tigers in Tampa on Friday.
Red Flags Starting to be Realized
Jack Flaherty is coming off perhaps his best season in the Major Leagues last season when he went 13-7 and finished fourth in the league in both ERA (3.17) and xFIP (3.00). That came after several mediocre seasons, however, and his peripherals have returned closer to those levels this year despite him owning a 3.41 ERA prior to his last start against the Reds last Saturday.
Well, those metrics caught up to him in that start as he was roughed up for seven earned runs on five hits plus five walks while lasting only 4.2 innings. That single start raised his ERA to 4.03 while leaving Jack with a losing 5-7 record, already matching his loss-total for all last year.
He is putting more traffic on the bases compared to last season with the walk rate up to 3.32/9 from 2.11/9, and he has combined that with a poor soft/hard contact ratio of 12.6% / 33.2% and a low 34.9% groundball rate. So, while he may not be quite as bad as his last start, his metrics do not support his ERA entering that game either so there may be more regression on the way.
Flaherty is facing a Rays’ offense ranked sixth in the majors in wRC+ vs. right-handers at 114, a figure that jumps to 124 here at home.
Better Than the ERA
Shane Baz is the opposite case as we see good things for him going forward despite his current 4.54 ERA. Some may claim that he is lucky to have a 6-3 record with that ERA, but we think it is the ERA that is deceptive, as his xFIP is better at 4.05 and has been improving with each of his recent starts.
In fact, Shane has now allowed three runs or less in five consecutive starts, with his last outing being his best one yet. He tossed 6.2 scoreless innings in that start against the Mets in New York on Sunday, allowing just three hits with six strikeouts. He has a good strikeout rate for the season of 8.26/9, as well as a very good groundball rate of 51.1%, which is a combination we always like to see. He also rates a nice 107 overall on Stuff+ with a five-pitch arsenal.
Moreover, should Baz need some relief, the Tampa Bay bullpen ranks second in the majors in ERA at 3.02 and fourth in xFIP at 3.75.
To summarize, Flaherty looks to be in line for more negative regression while facing a good offense, while Baz seems underrated based on his metrics and has great bullpen support. Bet on the Rays at a short price at home.
Predicted Score: Rays 5 – Tigers 3
MLB Pick: Rays ML (-109) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins
Friday, June 20, 2025 – 08:10 PM EDT at Target Field
We are looking for an upset in the Twin Cities on Friday and are thus betting on the highly touted rookie Jacob Misiorowski and the Brewers when they visit Joe Ryan and the Twins.
No Hits Allowed in Majors!
The Brewers and their fans were anxiously awaiting the Major League debut for Misiorowski after his fastball hit 103.5 MPH in the minor leagues, and that debut came last Thursday. Well, not only did he toss five scoreless innings in his first start, but he also did not allow a single hit while recording five strikeouts, with his fastball averaging 99.1 MPH and topping over 100.
Jacob Misiorowski also displayed a biting slider with good separation from the heater at 94.5 MPH, and his third pitch, the cutter, almost tilted Stuff+ with a 162 rating while being thrown 14.1% of the time. Stuff+ loved the rookie overall too, with the fastball rated 133 and the slider rated 114. His 16% swinging strike would be great for any pitcher, let alone a pitcher making his debut.
Yes, the four walks are a concern, but there can be no denying Misiorowski’s ceiling and he may get help here from an aggressive Minnesota lineup that ranks 27th out of 30 teams in offensive walk rate vs. right-handers at just 7.6%.
Too Much Luck and Hard Contact
Joe Ryan comes in at 7-2 while ranking a commendable 20th in the majors with his 2.93 ERA through 13 starts covering 80 innings. However, we have been waiting for regression to hit this pitcher that scores highly in the Luck Stats and allows a lot of hard contact, and that reason alone may be good enough to fade him as a rather large favorite as he is here.
You see, the ERA comes with the help of a .237 BABIP allowed and a probably unsustainable 80.6% strand rate. That has allowed him to pitch around a high 31.5% hard contact rate that is well up from 28.1% last season, and much of that contact has been in the air given his nondescript groundball rate of 37.9%.
Even Ryan’s average velocity this season of 93.3 MPH is noticeably down from 94.0 MPH last year.
In the end, the sky is the limit when it comes to Misiorowski’s potential while we see Ryan’s ERA rising once his Luck Stats normalize. Add in a nice underdog price and take the Brewers to upset.
Predicted Score: Brewers 4 – Twins 3
MLB Pick: Brewers ML (+139) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics
Friday, June 20, 2025 – 10:05 PM EDT at Sutter Health Park
We think Tanner Bibee of the Guardians has taken a step back this season after being considered the ace of the staff last year, so we are supporting Jeffrey Springs and the Athletics as home underdogs Friday.
Facing Underrated Offense
Tanner Bibee was great in his first two years in the majors, but he has slumped to a 4-6 record so far in his third season and while his 3.79 ERA looks good, it is accompanied by a worse 4.33 xFIP. The ERA has gotten help from a lucky 80.1% strand rate, which while high for any pitcher is particularly so for a pitcher without a high strikeout rate.
Well, that strikeout rate for Tanner of 7.25/9 is the lowest of his three-year career, and to make matters worse his walk rate of 2.90/9 is a career high. And neither of those lifetime-worsts appear to be fluky either, as Bibee’s swinging strike rate has dipped to the single-digits at 9.1% and his Location+ is below average at 96 after sitting right at the average of 100 last year.
Furthermore, he is facing a young Athletics lineup that is developing nicely while still being mostly underrated. The A’s are ranked ninth in the majors in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers at 109, as well as eighth in OPS against them at .742.
Consistent Recent Form
The veteran southpaw Jeffrey Springs may not have eye-popping numbers as he is 5-5 with a 4.52 ERA and 4.60 xFIP. However, that .500 record has come while pitching for a team that is 16 games below .500, he has been consistently good as of late and he is facing a Cleveland lineup that has struggled with southpaws.
Jeffrey has now allowed three earned runs or less in eight of his last nine outings after limiting Kansas City to two runs on seven hits with no walks on Sunday. That marked his second straight outing without walking a batter and was also the fifth time in those last nine appearances that he allowed two earned runs or less. He also seems to be unlucky to have a mediocre strikeout rate of 7.46/9, as his good swinging strike rate of 11.3% points to positive regression expected there.
He is facing a Guardians lineup with a low wRC+ of 76 (or 24% below average) against left-handed pitchers.
In the end, Bibee has not been as good as his ERA this season while Springs is trending in the right direction while now facing a lineup that has struggles against southpaws. Bet on the A’s as home underdogs in this spot.
Predicted Score: Athletics 5 – Guardians 3
MLB Pick: Athletics ML (+109) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
