MLB Best Bets for June 17: Not Too Many Runs for Twins and Reds
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LT Profits
- June 17, 2025
Top MLB Pick: Twins-Reds Under 8.5 (+105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We went only 1-2 on Friday, but the winner being at +137 odds limited the damage and we are still 43-27-2 in our last 72 Major League Baseball picks. We now return on Tuesday to a full 15-game slate of MLB betting matchups with every team in action, and we have the three best bets that we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds from top sportsbooks.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with our three selections for Tuesday as it turns out all being totals.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Detroit Tigers
Tuesday, June 17, 2025 – 06:40 PM EDT at Comerica Park
We are expecting both offenses to struggle in Motown on Tuesday night, which has is going Under when Casey Mize and the Tigers host Bailey Falter and the Pirates.
Reaching Peak?
The Tigers obviously had high hopes for Mize, the first overall pick of the 2018 MLB Draft, when he first came up in 2020, but he had greatly underwhelmed prior to this season. Well, now at age 28, he appears to have matured while finally figuring things out this season, so he may go on to have a nice career overall.
Casey enters at 6-2 with a 2.95 ERA over 11 starts and 61 innings, with his strikeout rate way up since last season to 8.11/9 from 6.86/9. He has a five-pitch arsenal after adding a curveball this year, and it is not a “show me” pitch as he has thrown it 15.7% of the time, and its Stuff+ rate of 98 is commendable for a first-year pitch. That addition to his repertoire has led to a swinging strike rate of 11.0%, which is up from 9.7% in 2024 and validates the improved K-Rate.
Mize also benefits here by facing a Pittsburgh offense ranked 28th out of 30 Major League teams in wRC+ against right-handers at 84 (16% below average), a figure that drops to a puny 70 on the road.
Best Season So Far
Like Mize, the left-hander Falter is also having his best season in the Major Leagues so far. Falter comes in at 5-3 while pitching for a team that is 15 games under .500, and he deserves better given his 3.36 ERA through 75 innings and not getting much support from a weak offense. In fact, he has remarkably allowed two runs or less in seven of his last eight starts including not allowing any runs in four of those outings!
Bailey is showing no signs of slowing down either as he allowed one run on five hits last time out while getting credit for the win for a change. He is primarily a fastball/sinker pitcher, and that has served his well this season with the former rated 101 on Stuff+ and the latter at 102. He is not a huge strikeout guy, but Falter has lowered his hard contact rate to 28.3% from 32.4% last season, leading to fewer balls leaving the yard with a home run rate allowed of 0.84/9.
Therefore, we can make a case for both these pitchers being underrated with their best seasons still ahead of them. With that in mind, go Under in Comerica Park on Tuesday.
Predicted Score: Tigers 4 – Pirates 2
MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (-120) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Minnesota Twins vs. Cincinnati Reds
Tuesday, June 17, 2025 – 07:10 PM EDT at Great American Ball Park
We are expecting a relatively low scoring game in the Queen City on Tuesday and are thus backing the Under when David Festa and the Twins visit Andrew Abbott and the Reds.
Great Bullpen Helps
David Festa comes in at 1-1 with an ordinary 4.76 ERA and 4.23 xFIP, but he has pitched very well in four of his five starts covering 22.2 innings, as the ERA and xFIP are skewed by one awful start. You see, he was charged with eight earned runs in 3.1 innings two starts ago, which will have a huge impact on such a limited innings-sample.
However, he quickly rebounded by allowing two runs on just three hits in his last start while working a season-high six innings, marking the fourth time in his five starts that he allowed two runs or less! David has a four-pitch arsenal led by a fastball averaging 94.8 MPH that rates 102 on Stuff+. That has led to a very good strikeout rate of 9.93/9 that is validated by a 13.3% swinging strike rate that is up from an already good 12.8% as a rookie last year.
Moreover, Festa is supported by perhaps the best bullpen in baseball, as not only does the Minnesota unit lead the Major Leagues in xFIP at 3.49, but it also leads in WAR by a considerable margin at 4.1.
Struggling Offense vs. Lefties
Andrew Abbott has great surface numbers as he is 6-1 with a 1.87 ERA through 11 starts covering 62.2 innings, and he would rank third in the majors in ERA had he recorded just one more out, needing 63 innings to qualify. We remain skeptical of that success however, with his xFIP more than two full runs higher at 3.95.
Nonetheless, since we do not expect the Reds to do too much damage against Festa and the Twins’ bullpen, Andrew can probably still afford to allow a few runs while keeping this game Under the total. And weaker metrics aside, Abbott has somehow managed to allow either one or zero runs in nine of his 11 starts!
We think the southpaw has a good chance of his luck continuing for at least one more game here, facing a Minnesota offense that has struggled against left-handed pitching with a wRC+ of 86 (14% below average).
So, with Festa being better than his ERA while having a great bullpen supporting him, and Abbott facing an offense that has not hit lefties well, bet on the Under in Cincinnati on Tuesday.
Predicted Score: Twins 4 – Reds 2
MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (+105) at BetOnline
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Chicago Cubs
Tuesday, June 17, 2025 – 08:05 PM EDT at Wrigley Field
We feel that runs will be at a premium in the Windy City on Tuesday night. Therefore, we are betting on the Under when Chad Patrick and the Brewers visit Ben Brown and the Cubs.
Bounce-Back Expected
The rookie right-hander Chad Patrick looked like a godsend for the Brewers’ rotation prior to his last start last Wednesday, when he was roughed up for five runs in seven innings by the Braves. However, we are expecting a bounce-back effort here in Chicago tonight.
After all, Chad had allowed three runs or less on all 13 of his starts in his first taste of the Major Leagues prior to that stinker. Thus, he deserves better than his 3-6 record given his 3.25 ERA, and remarkably the youngster remains a very commendable 22nd in all of baseball in WAR with his 1.7! He has an overall Stuff+ of 105 keyed by three different pitches rated over 100 in his fastball (104), cutter (112) and slider (114), leading to a good strikeout rate as a rookie of 8.56/9.
Granted, Patrick is facing a Chicago offense with a very good wRC+ of 115 against right-handers for the year, but that figure has dropped all the way down to a below average 91 during the month of June.
Deceptive ERA
Ben Brown enters this contest at 3-5 with a 5.72 ERA, but do not be fooled by either the record or the ERA as he is much better than that. For starters, consider his very good xFIP of 3.38 and the fact that he has had terrible luck with a .368 BABIP allowed and a 64.0% strand rate.
Doing so poorly in the Luck Stats has covered up the fact that Ben has an excellent strikeout rate of 10.77/9, supported by a very good 13.5% swinging strike rate. He combines that with a good enough groundball rate of 42.2%, mostly keyed by a knuckle-curve rated an eye-popping 119 in Stuff+ while being his second most frequent pitch at 38.8%. Thus, we see his ERA plummeting once the Luck Stats normalize.
Brown also gets some help here by facing a Milwaukee offense ranked 26th out of 30 teams in wRC+ vs righties at 93, and things have only gotten worse with that figure at 81 during June.
So, with Patrick still having a great rookie season with his last start notwithstanding, Brown being much better than his ERA and two offenses struggling against righties this month, we are going Under in Wrigley Field.
Predicted Score: Cubs 4 – Brewers 3
MLB Pick: Under 9 (-113) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
