MLB Best Bets for July 9: Rays to Shine Brightly in Detroit Wednesday
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LT Profits
- July 9, 2025
Top MLB Pick: Rays ML (+133) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We had a losing night last night, but we remain a solid 59-39-2 over our last 100 Major League Baseball picks. We are back on Wednesday for another full 15-game slate of MLB betting matchups with every team in action. As usual, we have the three best bets that we feel have the most betting value at the currently posted MLB odds.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with our three selections consisting of two sides and one total. We have searched for the best betting odds available across the top sportsbooks for each of our selections, and our action starts relatively early Wednesday with the first game at 5:10 ET.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers
Wednesday, July 09, 2025 – 05:10 PM EDT at Comerica Park
We see nice underdog value with the road team in Detroit on Wednesday and are thus backing Zack Littell and the Rays when they pay a visit to Reese Olson and the Tigers.
Deserves Better Record
Zack Littell comes in with a nondescript 7-7 record, but he deserves a better fate given his 3.50 ERA through 18 starts covering 110.2 innings. His latest start Friday against the Twins was a microcosm of his season, as he had to settle for a no-decision despite allowing just one run and four hits in six innings with five strikeouts. That marked the third straight start where he allowed exactly one run, yet he is only 1-0 over those starts.
Zack had a rough first three starts of the season, but he has been a model of consistency since then allowing three runs or less in 14 of his last 15 starts and a manageable four runs in the other outing! He is not a big strikeout guy with a rate of 6.18/9, but that has been nicely offset by great control with his walk rate of 1.22/9 being the second lowest in the Major Leagues behind only Cy Young Award candidate Tarik Skubal.
Littell has a nice splitter with late downward movement that has a 106 rating on Stuff+ while helping generate a good 41.8% groundball rate, a huge improvement from 34.0% last year. And after he departs this contest, the Tampa Bay bullpen ranks fifth in the majors in xFIP at 3.84.
Facing Good Offense
Now, Reese Olson also has very good surface numbers at 4-3 with a shiny 2.89 ERA and 3.69 xFIP. However, he does not usually work deeply into games with a total of 53 innings pitched over 10 starts, and his bullpen support is not as good as Littell’s, with the Detroit bullpen ranked 14th in xFIP at 4.07.
Besides, Reece has several disturbing metrics that point to an expected rise in the ERA. For starters, his walk rate is at the highest point of his three-year career at 3.40/9. Secondly, that extra traffic on the bases is combined with a weak soft/hard contact ratio of 12.0% / 31.7%. Also, his fastball had a rating of only 84 in Stuff+ despite having a respectable velocity of 94.7 MPH, which is an indication of lack of movement.
Moreover, Olson is facing a Rays’ offense ranked seventh in the majors in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers at 111 (or 11% above average).
Despite Olson having a sub-3.00 ERA for now, that is over a relatively small sampling and his metrics indicate the ERA will not be sustained. We see more upside in Littell, who has been very consistent and should have a better record, so we are betting on the Rays as decided underdogs in Motown on Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Rays 4 –Tigers 3
MLB Pick: Rays ML (+133) at Heritage Sports
Cleveland Guardians vs. Houston Astros
Wednesday, July 09, 2025 – 08:10 PM EDT at Daikin Park
We see a lower scoring game than the posted total suggests in a matchup of two under-the-radar pitchers that show nice promise. We are betting on the Under when Slade Cecconi and the Guardians visit Brandon Walter and the Astros.
Finally Fulfilling Potential?
Slade Cecconi was highly regarded when he was called up by the Diamondbacks two years ago, but he was a bust in his two seasons in Arizona and was acquired by the Guardians in a trade over the offseason. And while he has only a 3-4 record in his first season in Cleveland, that has more to do with a lack of run-support, as he appears to be coming into his own in his third season.
Slade has a good 3.56 ERA through nine starts since getting recalled on May 17th while seeing a huge spike in his strikeout rate in his new surroundings to 8.81/9 from 7.48/9 in Arizona last year. And that spike coincides with a progressive rise in his swinging strike rate in the Major Leagues, from a mere 7.7% as a rookie to 9.0% last season to its current 10.6%!
Cecconi has now allowed three runs or less in six straight starts and in eight of his nine total starts this year, and this will be his first ever start against the Astros, which is generally an advantage for the pitcher.
Great Command Ratio
The rookie Brandon Walter is still 1-1 after escaping with a no-decision despite having his worst Major League start last time out, as he was roughed up for five runs and eight hits in five innings in Colorado. That raised his ERA to 4.15 through six starts, but we are willing to forgive that effort with it being his first ever outing in high altitude.
And even with that stinker, Brandon has displayed great command for a rookie with the southpaw owning an outstanding K/BB ratio of 8.57/0.52 per nine innings! Furthermore, that great ratio is combined with an excellent groundball rate of 51.9%, keyed by a sinker rated a lofty 108 on Stuff+. Also, Walter’s Location+ of 104 helps to validate the low walk rate.
He also benefits here from facing a Cleveland offense that has been mostly abysmal against left-handed pitchers, ranking 28th out of 30 teams in wRC+ against them at 74 (26% below average).
While this may not be a matchup of household names just yet, both young pitchers are flashing nice ability at the Major League level. We are looking for that to continue and are going Under the total in Daikin Park on Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Guardians 3 – Astros 2
MLB Pick: Under 8 (-125) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Atlanta Braves vs. The Athletics
Wednesday, July 09, 2025 – 10:05 PM EDT at Sutter Health Park
After the Athletics won in a romp 10-1 in the series opener here last night, we are looking for a second straight win with Mitch Spence on the bump when they host Bryce Elder and the Braves in Sacramento Wednesday.
Poor ERA Lines Up with Metrics
We have never been high on Bryce Elder, even when he posted ERAs of 3.17 and 3.81 respectively in his first two seasons in the big leagues as he did so with extremely underwhelming metrics. Well, those metrics have not changed much, except this year his frontline stats are more closely matching up with them, as he is 2-6 with an unsightly 5.92 ERA over 14 starts and 73 innings.
Bryce would not be in the rotation, and quite possibly be in the minor leagues if the Atlanta pitching staff were not so depleted by injuries. He has a soft K/BB ratio of 7.64/3.33 per nine innings and has been very home run prone allowing dingers at an ugly rate of 1.97/9. The latter is what happens when you have an extremely high hard contact rate of 38.0%, with hitters not missing many pitches as Elder’s swinging strike rate is a career-low 7.9%.
Now he must deal with an underrated young Athletics’ offense that is above average in wRC+ vs. righties this year at 104, as well as seventh in the majors in OPS against them after last night’s explosion at .741!
Better Numbers at Underdog Price
Now, Mitch Spence may not have extraordinary overall numbers at 2-4 with a 4.06 ERA, but that ERA is still much lower than Elder and Spence has a sub-4.00 xFIP of 3.94, which is always a nice trait for an underdog. Also encouraging is an above average overall Stuff+ of 102 that belies the W/L record, with a five-pitch arsenal that includes a cutter rated 118 and a slider rated 109.
And truth be told, Mitch has been better since joining the starting rotation on June 5th after beginning the year in the bullpen, posting a 3.64 ERA and 3.84 xFIP over six starts. His cutter/slider combo has helped generate a 42.9% groundball rate as a starter, offsetting his mediocre 6.98/9 strikeout rate. Perhaps most importantly, he has allowed two earned runs or less in four of his six starts.
He is facing an Atlanta offense that while being at the average of 100 in wRC+ against right-handers this season, has lacked pop against them while ranking only 20th in OPS at .710. Furthermore, since June 1st, the Braves are 25th in wRC+ at 88 and 24th in OPS at a lowly .670.
So, not only does Spence have the better metrics of these two starters, but the Athletics also grade out better peripherally on offense, especially since June 1st. This has us betting on the A’s as small underdogs at home in this spot.
Predicted Score: Athletics 7 – Braves 4
MLB Pick: Athletics ML (+109) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
