MLB Best Bets for July 8: Mariners to Sail Past Bronx Bombers Tuesday
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LT Profits
- July 8, 2025
Top MLB Pick: Mariners ML (+104) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We had another winning 2-1 night on Friday, bringing us to a very solid 59-36-2 over our last 97 Major League Baseball picks. We now return on Tuesday to another full 15-game slate of MLB betting matchups with every team in action. And as usual, we have the three best bets that we feel have the most betting value at the currently posted MLB odds.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with our three selections for Tuesday consisting of two sides and one total. As always, we have searched for the best betting odds available across the top sportsbooks for each of our selections.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers
Tuesday, July 08, 2025 – 06:40 PM EDT at Comerica Park
We have had success fading Jack Flaherty of the Tigers as of late, and we are doing so again with Ryan Pepiot and the Rays when they visit Detroit on Tuesday.
Regressing as Expected
Flaherty had a career year last season when he finished 13-7 with a stellar 3.17 ERA and a 3.00 xFIP that was the fourth best in the Major Leagues. He was then sitting with a 3.41 ERA over his first 13 starts this year, but we said at that time that his peripherals were considerably worse than last season and that negative regression was expected. Well, he has obliged that prediction in his four starts since then, going 0-3 with a hideous 10 50 ERA and 4.80 xFIP.
That brings Jack to 5-9 for the season with the loss total already exceeding all last year, and the ERA has soared to 4.84. That is what happens when you combine a career-low groundball rate of 34.8% with a horrid soft/hard contact ratio of 12.0% / 34.7%, factors that were already in effect when Flaherty was still carrying his deceptive ERA four starts ago.
Furthermore, he is putting more traffic on the bases this season with a walk rate of 3.73/9 well up from 2.11/9 last year. Also, he must now deal with a Tampa Bay offense that is tied for sixth in the majors in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers at 112.
Best Season Yet
Ryan Pepiot is in his fourth season in the Major Leagues, and after splitting time between the rotation and the bullpen during his first two years with the Dodgers, the Rays made him a fulltime starter last season. And the results were mostly good as his unlucky 8-8 record came with a good 3.60 ERA, although his xFIP lagged a bit at 4.05.
Well, Ryan is now starting to come into his own at the age of 27, although he again has an unlucky .500 record at 6-6. He has lowered his already good ERA further to 3.34 and has gotten the xFIP to a more respectable 3.80. He has a good strikeout rate of 8.88/9 that has the potential to be even better given his good 11.7% swinging strike rate, fueled by a career high fastball velocity of 95.0 MPH.
That has produced a nice 109 fastball Stuff+, and he has two other pitches rated higher with the Stuff+ at 112 for the cutter and 121 for the change-up. So, Pepiot is having his best season in the majors even if it is not reflected in the record.
We are looking for some correction in that regard tonight with Pepiot getting rewarded with a win while taking on a starter in decline in Flaherty. Bet on the Rays at a small underdog price on the road in Motown Tuesday.
Predicted Score: Rays 4 –Tigers 3
MLB Pick: Rays ML (+104) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Seattle Mariners vs. New York Yankees
Tuesday, July 08, 2025 – 07:05 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium
We think the wrong team might be currently favored in the Bronx on Tuesday, so we are betting on Logan Gilbert and the Mariners as small underdogs visiting Will Warren and the Yankees in Yankee Stadium.
Fantastic Command
Logan Gilbert has had a nice career so far, as ever since his rookie season of 2021, he has posted sub-4.00 ERAs and xFIPs each of the last three years and he appears to be on that same path this season. He has made only 10 starts due to spending nearly two months on the injured list, but that has not deterred him as he has a 3.40 ERA and a superb 2.12 xFIP through 50.1 innings.
Logan has been known for his great command since coming into the league, but he has taken things to a brand-new level this year with a magnificent K/BB ratio of 13.23/1.97 per nine innings! Yes, the innings sample is relatively small, but that ratio is supported by an amazing 17.7% swinging strike rate and a 116 Location+.
All of that suggests that the xFIP is not too fluky even with the limited sample, meaning that the already good ERA should shrink even further as it converges toward the tiny xFIP.
High Walk and Hard Contact Rates
Will Warren comes in at 5-4, and his 5.02 ERA does not exactly exude confidence as a favorite when facing a pitcher of Gilbert’s status. Now, we concede that Warren is not nearly as bad as his ERA given his 3.30 xFIP, but this is a rare case where even that nice figure pales when compared to his mound opponent.
The same thing can be said about Will’s excellent strikeout rate of 11.42/9, as again, that great number is still nearly two strikeouts lower than Gilbert’s K-Rate. What has gotten Warren in trouble however is his awful walk rate 4.16/9, which is up from an already poor BB-Rate of 3.97/9 as a rookie last year. Moreover, he has combined that extra traffic with an above average hard contact rate of 33.5%, which helps account for the lofty ERA.
Also, he now must contend with an underrated Seattle offense that is quietly tied with Tampa Bay for sixth best in the majors in wRC+ against right-handed pitchers at 112.
We consider Gilbert to be one of the most unheralded elite pitchers in baseball, and while Warren is not as bad as his ERA, he does have legitimate issues with walks and allowing hard contact. Add a small underdog price and back the Mariners on the road in this spot.
Predicted Score: Mariners 5 – Yankees 2
MLB Pick: Mariners ML (+104) at Heritage Sports
Washington Nationals vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Tuesday, July 08, 2025 – 07:45 PM EDT at Busch Stadium
We are looking for a high-scoring affair in Busch Stadium Tuesday night, which has us supporting the Over when Jake Irvin and the Nationals visit Sonny Gray and the Cardinals.
Facing Great Home Offense
Jake Irvin may be 7-3, but that record is undeserved as it comes with a 4.71 ERA and a mostly aligning 4.63 xFIP. Yes, he was credited with a Quality Start when getting the win over the Tigers in his last start on Thursday, but he met the bare minimum of getting one, allowing three earned runs in six innings. And that was one of his better starts this season.
Jake’s poor xFIP is fueled by his weak K/BB ratio of 6.43/2.83 per nine innings, and his ERA should probably be worse given his lucky BABIP allowed of .259. That luck has helped mask his poor soft/hard contact ratio of 13.4% / 35.1%, and his sub-par overall Stuff+ of 94 certainly does nothing to support the 7-3 record either.
Now, Irvin is facing a St. Louis offense that ranks ninth in the league on wRC+ against righties at 108. That does not tell the whole story however, as the Cardinals have some of the more severe home/away batting splits in baseball, with that wRC+ against righties standing at 120 (or 20% above average) here at home.
Furthermore, the Washington bullpen has been the worst in the Major Leagues, ranking dead last out of 30 teams in both xFIP at 4.63 and ERA at an abysmal 5.79.
Does Not Need to Allow Much
Now, Sonny Gray is having a great season at 8-3 with a 3.51 ERA and a 2.98 xFIP that is eighth best in the majors. However, we think that as great as the Cardinals have been at home offensively, they may approach this posted total on their own against an overachieving Irvin and the terrible Nationals’ bullpen. That may not leave Gray needing to allow much to push this game Over.
And as great as Sonny has been overall, he is coming off one of his poorer starts this season last Wednesday when he allowed four earned runs in 6.1 innings against the Pirates in Pittsburgh. That marked the second time in four starts that he allowed at least four earned runs after he surrendered six earned in 4.1 innings in Milwaukee on June 12th.
Still, it is reassuring to know that even if the typical Gray in the middle of a great season shows up tonight, even allowing one or two runs should be enough given what we expect from the Cardinals’ offense. Therefore, we are betting on the Over in St. Louis on Tuesday.
Predicted Score: Cardinals 7 – Nationals 4
MLB Pick: Over 8.5 (-105) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
