MLB Best Bets for July 29: Pirates to Force Giants to Walk the Plank
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LT Profits
- July 29, 2025
We went a losing 0-2 on Friday with our third play being rained out, but we are still 67-48-2 over our last 117 Major League Baseball picks.
We return on Tuesday to a full 15-game slate of MLB betting matchups with every team in action. As usual, we have the three best bets that we feel have the most betting value at the currently posted MLB odds.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with our three selections for Tuesday consisting of one underdog side and two totals. We have also searched for the best betting odds available across the top sportsbooks for each of our selections.
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Tuesday, July 29, 2025 – 07:40 PM EDT at American Family Field
While neither starting pitcher is a household name, we are still expecting a pitching duel and are thus backing the Under in Milwaukee when Quinn Priester and the Brewers host Colin Rea and the Cubs.
Priester Looking Like Real Deal in Raging Form
Quinn Priester was a first-round draft pick back in 2019, and after two nondescript seasons since breaking into the Major Leagues in 2023, he is bursting onto the scene for the Brewers this year at the still young age of 24.
Quinn comes in at 9-2 in 19 games including 14 starts, and he has now earned a permanent rotation spot after following an opener five times early in the season with a 3.28 ERA and 3.63 xFIP. Granted his overall K/BB ratio is nothing special at 7.61/3.01 per nine innings, but he has improved that rate to 7.93/2.07 since May 7th (13 appearances) and he ranks fifth in baseball among pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched in groundball rate at 57.5%.
Priester allowed three runs or less in 12 of those 13 outings and four earned runs in the other, including allowing two runs or less 10 times! That raging form has come with a couple of double-digit strikeout performances that belie his overall K-Rate, and the same can be said about his 10.1% swinging strike rate, pointing to positive regression expected. His most frequently thrown pitch is a 93.8 MPH sinker rated 102 on Stuff+.
Rae Capable of Bounce-Back with His Slider Biting
Colin Rae comes in at 8-4 with a 4.06 ERA, a figure that stood at 3.80 before he was roughed up for six runs (five earned) in five innings by the Royals last Wednesday with three of the six hits he allowed being home runs. That start was an aberration for a guy that had pitched well in his previous four starts, and we like his chances of bouncing back here tonight.
Colin had allowed a grand total of five runs and 14 hits over 23.2 innings in those prior four starts before the last stinker, including allowing exactly one run is each of his previous three starts. He may be at an advanced age of 35, but Rea’s fastball velocity is up nearly a full MPH since last season, to 93.8 MPH from 92.9, and his slider is sliding more than it ever has, with a hefty 133 rating on Stuff+. And he is still spotting his pitches well with a Location+ of 101.
So, what we have here is a matchup between a youngster in Priester that is in great form while approaching the prime of his career, and a veteran in Rea that was in great form himself before a shaky last start. We expect Rea to rebound and are therefore betting on the Under on Tuesday—predicted score: Cubs 3, Brewers 2.
Washington Nationals vs. Houston Astros
Tuesday, July 29, 2025 – 08:10 PM EDT at Daikin Park
We feel that runs will be hard to come by in Houston on Tuesday night, so we are betting on the Under when Michael Soroka and the Nationals pay a visit to Jason Alexander and the Astros.
Positive Regression Expected with Soroka Finally Healthy
Michael Soroka appeared to be on the way to a nice career when he went 13-4 with a 2.68 ERA for the Braves back in 2019, but he has had Achilles and/or arm injuries every year since then that have prevented him from returning to that form. Well, he is now healthy and still relatively young at 27 years of age, and he could be primed for a strong remainder of this season.
Granted, the overall numbers are not great as Michael is 3-8 with a 4.85 ERA, although the xFIP is noticeably better at 4.06. But that does not tell the whole story as the ERA is skewed by one bad start on the 4th of July where he allowed seven earned runs in four innings. That is his only truly bad outing in his last 13 starts though, as he allowed three runs or less in 10 of those outings and exactly four runs in two others.
More importantly, the fastball velocity is a career high 93.7 MPH, and he has added a new cutter to his repertoire already rated 100 on Stuff+. That has led to a nice K/BB ratio of 9.58/2.77 per nine innings, with that K-Rate being a career high. accompanied by a good 42.7% groundball rate. So. it appears that Soroka is indeed back after an injury-filled road getting here.
Alexander with Just Two Bad Outings and Facing Mediocre Offense
As for Jason Alexander, he is 1-1 with an unsightly 8.14 ERA and 5.53 xFIP, but that is over just 21 innings comprised of two starts and five relief appearances. Therefore, two awful outings where he allowed a combined 14 earned runs in 8.1 innings are greatly impacting those numbers.
Jason actually pitched well in his other five outings including two of his three games in multiple roles since being claimed off waivers by the Astros. He won in his Houston debut as a starter, allowing two earned runs and only three hits in six innings. Then, he pitched in relief in his second Astros’ appearance and recorded a scoreless three-inning save allowing two hits.
He is now facing a Washington offense that is slightly below average in wRC+ vs. right-handers at 98 overall, but that figure has plummeted to 82 against righties on the road during July.
In the end, we see Soroka continuing the revival of career and Alexander doing enough against a suspect offense to keep this game Under the total—predicted score: Nationals 4, Astros 2.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. San Francisco Giants
Tuesday, July 29, 2025 – 09:45 PM EDT at Oracle Park
We have been fading Justin Verlander of the Giants for most of this season, and we are doing so again here by supporting southpaw Bailey Falter and the Pirates as decided road underdogs in San Francisco.
Great Time to Fade Verlander After Finally Getting a Win
Justin Verlander could end up in the Hall of Fame once his career is through, but he is now 42 years old and coming off two of the worst seasons of his career. And this season has not been any better, as he finally recorded his first win of the season last time out against the struggling Braves following an 0-8 start and still owns a 4.70 ERA and 4.88 xFIP.
Long gone are the days when Justin could rear back and throw 100 MPH when needed, as his fastball velocity is down to 94.0 MPH, resulting in a mediocre strikeout rate of 7.47/9. That makes for a weak K/BB ratio with the walk rate at 3.52/9, its highest point since way back in 2008! Furthermore, his bad hard-contact rate of 35.1% is almost as high as his modest 35.8% groundball rate.
Yet, we feel that he continues to be overpriced, and that may be getting amplified here coming off his first win.
Falter with Winning Record and Giants Can’t Hit Lefties
Bailey Falter may not be a world-beater, but he has managed to post a winning 7-5 record while pitching for a last-place Pirates team that is 17 games under .500, with a decent 3.82 ERA. He is also coming off a gem of a performance against the first-place Tigers where he allowed just one run and four hits in seven innings with eight strikeouts and not a single walk!
That marked the seventh time in the last eight starts that Bailey allowed three runs or less, and he allowed four runs in the other outing. He has a wide five-pitch arsenal led by a fastball rated 102 on Stuff+, but he also has a nice secondary pitch with his 92.1 MPH sinker rated 101. And of course, it always helps to be facing a San Francisco offense ranked 27th out of 30 teams in wRC+ vs. left-handers at 77.
Therefore, while this may primarily be a fade of an overpriced Verlander, it is not as if Falter is without merit on his own facing a poor offense. Bet on the Pirates to upset at a nice price in Oracle Park—predicted final score: Pirates 5, Giants 3.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
