MLB Best Bets for July 22: Braves to Chop Down Giants in Atlanta
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LT Profits
- July 23, 2025
We had a winning 2-1 night on Friday, including the White Sox at +139 odds, leaving us 64-43-2, 60% over our last 109 Major League Baseball picks.
We return on Tuesday for another full 15-game slate of MLB betting matchups with every team in action. And as usual, we have the three best bets that we feel have the most betting value at the currently posted MLB odds.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with our three selections for Tuesday consisting of one side and two totals. As always, we have searched for the best betting odds available across the top-rated sportsbooks for each of our selections.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians
Tuesday, July 22nd – 06:40 PM EDT at Progressive Field
We foresee a sneaky low-scoring game on Tuesday in a matchup of two pitchers we feel are better than their respective ERAs. So, we are backing the Under when Joey Cantillo and the Guardians host Brandon Young and the Orioles.
Cantillo with Good xFIP and Orioles Struggle with Southpaws
The left-hander Cantillo took the rotation spot of the suspended Luis Ortiz after making 21 relief appearances to begin the season. After allowing a total of three runs over his first two starts, he did surrender four runs in 5.1 innings in his third start last time out, but he still displayed great command with six strikeouts and not a single walk.
This leaves Joey at 1-0 with a 4.17 ERA over 41 total innings in his combined roles this season. While that ERA is already respectable, his xFIP is nearly a full run lower at a very good 3.19.
The catalyst for that xFIP has been an excellent strikeout rate of 11.85/9, and he combines that with a good groundball rate of 41.1%. He has also been unlucky with a .320 BABIP allowed, so look for his ERA to converge downward toward the xFIP as the BABIP normalizes.
Cantillo also puts the Orioles at their worst offensive split, as they rank 27th out of 30 Major League teams in wRC+ against southpaws at 75, a stark contrast from their 103 wRC+ against righties.
Young with Nice K/BB Ratio Last 4 Starts with More Splitters
Quite a few pitching models were high on the rookie Young prior to this season, but he has yet to win a game in the big leagues while coming in at 0-4 with an unsightly 7.52 ERA through six starts. But believe it or not, there are some positive signs pointing to projected improvement, beginning with the xFIP being more than three runs lower at 4.20.
You see, Brandon had shaky command in his first two starts, issuing eight walks in 8.2 innings. However, he has issued just three walks in his four starts since covering 17.2 innings, not issuing a single walk in his last two outings. This has resulted in a great ratio of 8.15/1.53 per nine innings over those four starts.
That improvement has coincided with an increased use of the splitter after the first two stinkers, which has been a shrewd move with that pitch rated 103 on Stuff+.
So, what we have here is two young starters with good potential, each having metrics belying their ERA, pointing to positive regression for both. This has us betting on the Under 8 priced at around -103.
Boston Red Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Tuesday, July 22, 2025 – 06:45 PM EDT at Citizens Bank Park
After the Phillies won the series opener 3-2 here last night, we are expecting a similarly low-scoring affair on Tuesday and are betting on the Under with Cristopher Sanchez on the bump hosting Richard Fitts and the Red Sox.
Sanchez 7th in Major Leagues in Both xFIP and WAR
Sanchez has been one of the best pitchers in baseball so far this season.
The southpaw is 8-2 with a 2.50 ERA over 19 starts covering 115 innings while ranking seventh in the Major Leagues in both xFIP (2.91) and Pitching WAR (3.2). Incredibly, he has allowed exactly one run in each of his last five starts and two runs or less in nine straight starts!
If you like consistency, Cristopher has allowed three runs or less in 18 of his 19 starts, with the only exception being allowing four runs way back in his second start of the year. That is what happens when you combine a very good K/BB ratio of 9.55/2.50 per nine innings with ranking fourth in the Major Leagues with a 58.0% groundball rate.
Sanchez has generated a career-high swinging strike rate of 13.1% with only a three-pitch sinker/slider/change-up combo, but that is all you need when all three pitches are rated 111 or higher on Stuff+ with an overall 115 rating.
Fitts with Just One Bad Start and Good Bullpen Support
Now, Fitts may not be at Sanchez’s level, but he has pitched consistently well despite being just 1-3 with a 4.28 ERA and 4.05 xFIP through eight starts. He deserves a better record as he has allowed three runs or less in seven of his eight starts, but he has been a victim of poor run support which unfortunately figures to be the case again tonight.
Also, the ERA is skewed because his lone bad start was an atrocious one where he was charged with five earned runs in one inning. Considering his limited amount of starts thus far, that one outing is still enough to inflate the ERA. Richard has a mediocre strikeout rate of 7.49/9, but that has gotten offset by a good 45.5% groundball rate.
After Fitts leaves, the Boston bullpen has been solid while ranking fifth in the majors with a 3.43 ERA.
The Phillies are obviously in good hands with Sanchez on the mound, but we also think the Red Sox can hang close in this game with the consistent Fitts and a good bullpen.
That combination, along with a predicted scoreboard of Phillies 4 – Red Sox 2, has us supporting the Under 8.5, priced around -110.
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves
Tuesday, July 22, 2025 – 07:15 PM EDT at Truist Park
The Braves might be the most disappointing team in baseball this year with a 44-55 record, but we are still betting on them at a cheap price at home here with Davis Daniel hosting Landen Roupp and the Giants.
Roupp Not a Hard Thrower and Has Severe Home/Away Splits
Roupp comes in at 6-6 but with good frontline stats, although we are skeptical that he will maintain his current 3.27 ERA and 3.99 xFIP. He is not a hard thrower by any means, and perhaps most relevant for this start tonight, he has been noticeably worse on the road.
It has now gotten to the point where Landen hardly throws his fastball at all, with its usage down to a miniscule 0.4%, so basically all his pitches are relatively soft. Thus, it is not surprising that his swinging strike rate is in the single digits at 9.6%.
To his credit, he seems to have figured out how to take advantage of his spacious home stadium, as he owns a spiffy 1.80 ERA and 3.68 xFIP in Oracle Park. However, his soft stuff has not translated as well on the road where he has a 4.56 ERA and 4.26 xFIP.
Moreover, as disappointing as the Braves have been this season, they still have an above-average wRC+ of 102 against right-handed pitchers, a figure that has leaped all the way up to 115 this month of July!
Daniel May Have Bigger Role and Cheap Price at Home
For the first time in a long time, the Braves may be sellers at the trading deadline this year, which may create openings in the starting rotation.
That means that young pitchers like Daniel may have a bigger role if they pitch well. And while it was only one outing, he did pitch well in his first ever start in an Atlanta uniform allowing one run on only two hits with five strikeouts in four innings in St. Louis against a Cardinals’ offense that has been good at home this year.
It remains to be seen if Davis can maintain that form as his innings build up. Granted, he had just a 6.23 ERA in six starts covering 30.1 innings with the Angels last year, but his xFIP was much lower at 4.16, and he did flash nice command with a K/BB ratio of 8.31/1.78 per nine innings. Thus, his five strikeouts in four innings this year may not be fluky.
Once Daniel departs this contest, the Atlanta bullpen has been solid while ranking sixth in the majors with a 3.92 xFIP with an accompanying 3.85 ERA.
In the end, we think this is a cheap price for Atlanta, considering we are not as high on Roupp as his stats would indicate, especially given his road numbers, and we think Daniel has some good potential. Add an offense that has been hot against right-handers this month, a predicted scoreboard of Braves 6 – Giants 4, and bet on the Braves at home on Tuesday.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
