MLB Best Bets for July 18: Not Too Many Tallies in Texas Friday
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LT Profits
- July 18, 2025
Top MLB Pick: Tigers-Rangers Under 8.5 (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We finished the first half of the season at 62-42-2, 60% over our last 106 Major League Baseball picks.
We return on Friday for a big 15-game slate of MLB betting matchups with every team in action for the first day back following the All-Star break. As usual, we have the three best bets that we feel have the most betting value at the currently posted MLB odds.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with our three selections for Friday consisting of two underdog sides and one total. And as always, we have searched for the best betting odds available across the top sportsbooks for each of our selections.
If you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more baseball betting advice from our expert, Donnie RightSide!
Chicago White Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Friday, July 18, 2025 – 06:40 PM EDT at PNC Park
It may take some courage to bet on a White Sox team with the worst record in the American League at the All-Star break, but we see nice value on Jonathan Cannon as a decided underdog when they visit Bailey Falter and the Pirates.
Poor K/BB Ratio and High xFIP Make Falter a Weak Favorite
Falter comes in with a winning 6-4 record while pitching for a team that is 19 games under .500 with a good 3.79 ERA, but we simply believe that the ERA is a mirage. After all, his xFIP of 4.90 is the fifth worst in the Major Leagues among qualified starters, and his peripherals do not support a pitcher with a sub-4.00 ERA.
For starters, Bailey has a terrible K/BB ratio of 5.46/3.14 per nine innings, and it is not as if he makes up for it with a ton of groundballs, as that rate sits at an ordinary 37.0%. And much of the air contact has been hard with a soft/hard contact ratio of 16.6% / 33.2%, a ratio that gets compounded for non-strikeout pitchers that allow more contact in general.
Falter will not blow anyone away with his fastball, averaging a modest 92.1 MPH fastball either, yet he has gotten away with a low .240 BABIP allowed. Given these metrics presented, we see his ERA skyrocketing over the second half as his BABIP normalizes.
Cannon Pitched Well in 8 of Last 10 Outings
Now, Cannon’s frontline stats may not be anything special as he is 3-7 with a 4.44 ERA and 4.81 xFIP over 77 innings. However, we feel he offers more upside than Falter, and he has indeed been showing positive regression lately by allowing three earned runs or less in eight of his last 10 outings, including allowing a total of only five runs over his last three starts.
Jonathan has the better strikeout rate between these two starters at 7.13/9, and while his overall walk rate of 3.39/9 is just as bad as Falter’s, he has improved that mark to 2.39/9 over the previously mentioned last 10 outings. He also improved his Location+ to 100 over those 10 efforts, helping validate the improving walk rate. At the still young age of 24, Cannon appears to have figured things out and could be on the verge of realizing his nice potential.
Of course, it always helps to face a Pittsburgh offense that ranks 28th out of 30 Major League teams in wRC+ against right-handers at 81 (or 19% below average). Furthermore, even the White Sox bullpen has been better this month, ranking in the top half of the league at an identical 15th in both ERA (3.33) and xFIP (4.15) during July.
The bottom line here is that Falter is a prime candidate for negative regression that cannot be trusted as a big favorite like he is here. With Cannon regressing positively as of late, bet on the White Sox as sizeable road underdogs on Friday.
Predicted Score: White Sox 5 – Pirates 4
MLB Pick: White Sox ML (+139) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Athletics vs. Cleveland Guardians
Friday, July 18, 2025 – 07:10 PM EDT at Progressive Field
We think this is a relatively even pitching matchup between Slade Cecconi of the Guardians and JP Sears of the Athletics in Cleveland on Friday. However, the perceived hitting edge for the A’s against the handedness of tonight’s opposing starter and the decline of the Guardians’ bullpen this month has us betting on the Athletics at an underdog price.
Cecconi is Solid, but He Faces Emerging Offense and Has Suspect Bullpen Support
We certainly have nothing against Cecconi, as he should be better than 4-4 given his 3.44 ERA and 3.89 xFIP. Then again, the reasons that his record is not better are still in effect tonight, namely poor support from both his offense (more on that later) and his bullpen.
This is not to say that Slade is without some faults of his own, with the most glaring of those being a hideous soft/hard contact ratio of 7.7% / 36.5%. Given his average groundball rate of 38.5%, much of that hard contact has been through the air, leading to a home run allowed rate of 1.47/9. Luckily, his very good K/BB ratio of 9.16/2.95 per nine innings has helped limit the damage, with many of the dingers allowed being solo blasts.
All that hard air contact is still a concern though against an emerging young A’s offense that sneakily has a wRC+ of 103 against right-handers this season while ranking 10th in the majors in OPS against them at .740.
And then there is the Cleveland bullpen that was so good early in the season but has now slipped to 18th in the league in xFIP, thanks to ranking 29th out of 30 teams in that metric so far in July at a dismal 4.64.
Sears is Better Than His ERA and Guardians Can’t Hit Lefties
The southpaw Sears is 7-7 with a 4.79 ERA and 4.71 xFIP, but his peripherals indicate that he is a much better pitcher than that. And best of all, that is bearing itself out as he has now allowed three runs or less in four consecutive starts, including two scoreless outings over this current span.
JP has a decent K/BB ratio of 7.28/2.21 per nine innings, but he has limited damage with a below average hard contact rate of 29.7% and his most frequently thrown pitch, the slider, is graded a gaudy 122 on Stuff+. Moreover, the strikeout rate is up to 8.72/9 over the last four starts referenced earlier with an outstanding soft/hard contact ratio in that span of 22.4% / 25.9%, and the slider is biting more than ever with a 131 Stuff+ in his last start.
He now faces a Cleveland offense ranked 29th in the Major Leagues in wRC+ vs. left-handed pitchers at a measly 72 (28% below average), a figure that is slightly worse at 70 here at home and an even worse 65 overall this month.
So, while Cecconi has been good, his poor soft/hard contact ratio is a concern against an underrated offense. Meanwhile, Sears keeps improving thanks to an elite slider and is facing an offense that cannot hit lefties. Back the Athletics as small underdogs in this spot.
Predicted Score: Athletics 5 – Guardians 3
MLB Pick: Athletics ML (+117) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers
Friday, July 18, 2025 – 08:05 PM EDT at Globe Life Field
We foresee a low scoring affair and are thus supporting the Under when Patrick Corbin and the Rangers host Reese Olson and the Tigers in Arlington, TX of Friday.
Corbin Has Revitalized Career and Texas Bullpen is Solid
Corbin was on the cruel end of many jokes while generally considered the worst starting pitcher in baseball in recent seasons. Well, at the advanced age of 35, he has revitalized his career in his first season in the American League this year. He may have just a 6-7 record, but his 4.15 ERA and nicely aligning 4.11 xFIP are a huge jump for a pitcher whose best ERA over the last four seasons was 5.20, with his ERA in the other three years being 5.62. 5.82 and 6.31 respectively
Moreover, Patrick has even pitched better than his improved current ERA. He has been amazingly consistent for Texas, allowing three runs or less in 15 of his 17 starts! He has added a cutter to a now six-pitch arsenal, but the biggest improvement has been in a slider that is now biting again with a 101 rate on Stuff+. And there is still potential for improvement in Corbin’s strikeout rate of 7.14/9, given his swinging strike rate of 10.8% is his highest since 2021.
Once Patrick departs the premises, the Rangers’ bullpen has been solid all season while ranking fourth in the majors with an ERA of 3.37.
Olson Looks Like Real Deal and Texas Offense 25th in wRC+
Olson was not highly regarded when he was first called up to the Major Leagues, but he surprised many by posting a 3.99 ERA and 3.91 xFIP as a rookie in 2023 and then a 3.53 ERA and 3.72 xFIP last season. Well, lest anyone felt that Major League start was fluky, he is 4-3 with a 2.95 ERA this year, and while his xFIP is nearly a run higher, it is still sub-4.00 again at 3.89.
Reese has one of our favorite combinations, being good with both his strikeout rate at 8.53/9 and his groundball rate at 45.3%. He also keeps the ball in the yard with just three home runs allowed in 58 innings, with his only real negative being his walk rate of 3.41/9. He has good velocity on his fastball at 94.5 MPH, but just like Corbin, Olson’s highest rated pitch on Stuff+ is his slider at 105, helping lead to the abundance of groundballs.
And while the Texas offense has been better lately, it remains only 25th in the majors in wRC+ against right-handers at 95.
With Olson continuously displaying that he is not a fluke despite not having lofty expectations when he first entered the league, and with Corbin turning back the clock in his new surroundings, bet on the Under in Globe Life Park on Friday.
Predicted Score: Rangers 4 – Tigers 2
MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (-105) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
