Top MLB Pick: Athletics First-Five ML (+100) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Top-rated sportsbooks have released their MLB odds for today’s action. Three games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Brewers vs. Twins, Guardians vs. Athletics, and Red Sox vs. Giants.
For your best bets, I will recommend investing in the Brewers, Athletics, and Red Sox — all on the first-five money-line.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins
Sunday, June 22, 2025 – 02:10 PM EDT at Target Field
Sizzling Milwaukee
The Brewers are an underdog today because oddsmakers fail to account for current form.
Milwaukee is on a three-game winning streak, during which it has amassed 34 runs. The Brewers scored 8, 17, and 9 runs in their last three respective games.
Impressively, they scored three runs in 5.1 innings off Joe Ryan, Minnesota’s starter, who has had a tremendous season and who has a strong overall track record against Milwaukee’s batters.
We should ride the Milwaukee lineup’s hot streak, as the Brewers, with their superior daytime hitting numbers, face David Festa, Minnesota’s starter today, who owns an 8.10 June ERA in 13.1 innings.
Quinn Priester’s Strong Form
For the Brewers, Quinn Priester starts today.
Priester demonstrates solid form. He enters today’s game having allowed one run in each of his last three starts. He is well-tested, his last three starts coming in Cincinnati’s very hitter-friendly ballpark, against the Braves, and against the Cardinals.
Priester’s Outlook Today
Priester has a particularly strong outlook today because he is at his best in day games. This year, he has a 2.81 daytime ERA, compared to a 4.04 nighttime one. He has been a better daytime pitcher throughout his entire career.
More importantly, he matches up excellently against Minnesota’s batters. They rank 28th with a .369 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
Even without considering Milwaukee’s superior form, it is clear that the Brewers have the matchup edge today, making them a fantastic underdog.
MLB Pick: Brewers First-Five ML (+115) at BetOnline
Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics
Sunday, June 22, 2025 – 04:05 PM EDT at Sutter Health Park
A+ Starter Today
JP Sears starts for the Athletics today.
Sears is a great example of why first-five bets require more than a simple comparison of each starting pitcher’s ERA.
As measured by ERA, Sears has, it is true, had a worse season than his Cleveland counterpart, Slade Cecconi. However, it is not the case that Sears consistently performs poorly. Instead, he has had a few really bad starts, which inflate his ERA.
As evident, though, in his starts on June 1 and June 11, respectively, he can be counted on to bounce back from a terrible outing, such as the one that he suffered in his last start.
Matchup Edge
Led by Sears, the Athletics must be expected to lead through five innings.
Cleveland ranks 27th with a .331 slugging rate against Sears’ favorite pitches from lefties. Conversely, the A’s rank number one with a .499 slugging rate against Cecconi’s favorite pitches from righties.
Today, the A’s match up superbly against the Guardians.
MLB Pick: Athletics First-Five ML (+100) at BetOnline
Boston Red Sox vs. San Francisco Giants
Sunday, June 22, 2025 – 04:05 PM EDT at Oracle Park
The Improving Lucas Giolito
Boston starts Lucas Giolito today.
If you look at Giolito’s ERA, then it is easy to dismiss his chances today. However, you have to consider that ERA is a season-long statistic and that the MLB season is very long. As such, ERA is frequently misrepresentative. It fails to account for specific phases that are more relevant to the outcome of specific games.
Giolito’s ERA is not high because of his most recent starts. Instead, he enters today’s game in strong form. He has allowed zero earned runs in his last two starts. In his last start, he struck out ten batters. These starts, which characterize his current form, are the starts that are relevant to his performance today. They are the ones that must inform our betting approach.
Outlook Comparison
Today, Giolito, with his solid form, has a great outlook against a San Francisco lineup that ranks 24th with a .373 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties.
Robbie Ray, today’s starter for the Giants, does not share Giolito’s strong form. And more importantly, Boston’s batters match up very well against him.
Ray’s ERA is so low because he has faced many lineups that struggle against his pitches from lefties. Colorado, Texas, San Diego, and Kansas City rank worse than 23rd in slugging against them, and Ray pitched well against those teams. Boston, however, ranks fifth with a .440 slugging rate against Ray’s pitches from lefties.
Oddsmakers do not account for these decisive matchup details when they favor the Giants. The Red Sox have surged from below .500 to become a winning team — Giolito ‘s improvement and their potent lineup contribute to this surge.
MLB Pick: Red Sox First-Five ML (+140) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
