MLB Best Bets for June 18: Skubal Keys Scarce Scoring in Motown
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LT Profits
- June 18, 2025
Top MLB Pick: Pirates-Tigers Under 7 (-113) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We went only 1-2 on Tuesday night, but we are still a very solid 44-29-2 over our last 75 Major League Baseball picks. We now return on Wednesday to another full 15-game slate of MLB betting matchups with every team in action, and we again have the three best bets that we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds available.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with our three selections for Wednesday consisting of one underdog side and two totals. And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice.
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Detroit Tigers
Wednesday, June 18, 2025 – 6:40 PM EDT at Comerica Park
We are looking for the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner to key a low-scoring game while facing a weak offense in Motown. This has us banking on the Under when Tarik Skubal and the Tigers host Andrew Heaney and the Pirates on Wednesday.
Repeat Winner?
Skubal is picking up right where he left off when winning the Cy Young last season. He has a 7-2 record through 14 starts this year while leading the Major Leagues in both xFIP at 2.34 and Pitching WAR at 3.6, while also owning a 1.99 ERA that ranks sixth in the league. Incredibly, he has allowed a grand total of one run and 15 hits in 30.2 innings with 32 strikeouts against just two walks over his last four starts!
It is difficult to argue against Tarik being the best pitcher in all of baseball right now, as he has a supreme K/BB ratio of 11.06/0.90 per nine innings, with that walk rate also being the best in the majors. He is inducing terrible swings with an almost unheard-of swinging strike rate of 17.2% over 90.1 innings, along with a strong soft/hard contact ratio of 21.8% / 27.8%. And let us not forget about his overall 118 in Stuff+, with the lowest rating of his five pitches being 112.
Now, Skubal gets to feast on a Pittsburgh offense that ranks 29th in the majors in wRC+ against left-handers at 63 (or 37% below average), ahead of only the hapless Rockies.
Outclassed but Competent
The fellow southpaw Heaney is easily outclassed here with a 3-5 record, but the truth is that he has been quite solid with a 3.33 ERA over 14 starts covering 78.1 innings. Sadly, he is doing that with no support from one of the very worst offenses in baseball, and in typical fashion, he took the loss in his last start last Thursday despite allowing three runs and only four hits in six innings with seven strikeouts and not a single walk.
In fact, Andrew has not issued a walk in any of his last three starts while allowing one, two and three runs respectively with 15 strikeouts in 17.1 innings, yet has an 0-1 record in those outings. And he actually has a larger arsenal than Skubal with six different pitches, although he has thrown only three of them over 10% of the time, led by a biting slider rated 102 in Stuff+. Moreover, his lack of walks is not a fluke given his 103 Location+.
Sadly, Heaney cannot expect much, if any, run support tonight either with Skubal as his mound opponent. Of course, the money line for the Tigers is prohibitive here, but we have no qualms about betting on the Under in Detroit on Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Tigers 4 – Pirates 1
MLB Pick: Under 7 (-113) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Baltimore Orioles vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Wednesday, June 18, 2025 – 7:35 PM EDT at George M. Steinbrenner Field
We are looking for a sneaky pitching duel in Tampa on Wednesday and are therefore betting on the Under when Taj Bradley and the Rays host Trevor Rogers and the Orioles.
Rounding to Form?
Bradley has always had the tools to be a successful Major League pitcher, but he has been maddeningly inconsistent. That has been the case again this year as he comes in at 4-5 with a 4.35 ERA and 4.06 xFIP. The good news, though, is that the “good” Bradley has shown up in four of his last five starts, so perhaps he has finally gained the consistency to turn things around and fully realize his potential.
Taj allowed two earned runs of less in four of those last five starts, including not allowing any earned runs in two of them. That is more like it for a pitcher that averages 96.3 MPH on his fastball and has a sharp 90.0 MPH cutter to go along with it. That cutter has led to a career best 50.2% groundball rate, an indication that his reduced strikeout rate to a still good 8.12/9 is partly by design.
The added usage of the cutter has also led to vast improvements to both his soft contact rate (up to 17.5% from 10.2% last year) and hard contact rate (down to 27.8% from 39.4%). So, Bradley has become more of a “pitcher” this season while still retaining the ability to blow batters away when necessary.
He also has the support of a Tampa Bay bullpen ranked second in the majors in ERA at 3.08 and fourth in xFIP at 3.73.
Bullpen Vastly Improved
The southpaw Rogers is being recalled from Triple-A to make his second start of the season at the Major League level. And he certainly passed with flying colors in his first fill-in start, tossing 6.1 scoreless innings vs. the Red Sox at Fenway Park on May 24th, allowing just two hits with five strikeouts and no walks. He now gets to face a Tampa Bay offense with a sub-par wRC+ of 89 vs. left-handed pitchers upon his second recall.
While Trevor now has a chance to succeed again, the bigger story here could be what happens once he departs. You see, the Baltimore bullpen was dreadful at the start of the season, but that unit has now climbed up to a more commendable seventh in the league in xFIP at 3.83. They have done that by leading the Major Leagues in bullpen xFIP during the month of June at 2.68 while also ranking second in ERA at a miniscule 1.19!
So, with Bradley finally showing signs of consistency, Rogers facing a lineup that struggles against lefties after a great first start this year, and the turnaround of the Orioles’ pen, we are backing the Under down in Tampa.
Predicted Score: Orioles 4 – Rays 3
MLB Pick: Under 9.5 (-125) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Cleveland Guardians vs. San Francisco Giants
Wednesday, June 18, 2025 – 9:45 PM EDT at Oracle Park
We are going for the value in fading a veteran that appears to be nearing the end of his career in San Francisco Wednesday. We are backing Logan Allen and the Guardians at an underdog price when they visit Justin Verlander and the Giants.
Is He Done?
The 42-year-old Verlander has had a great career that may eventually land him in the Hall of Fame, but he showed signs of severe decline the last two seasons and things are not much better this year. The Giants are activating him from the injured list to take this start, but he did not impress much even before suffering a pectoral injury.
He comes in at 0-3 with a very ordinary 4.33 ERA and 4.68 xFIP through 10 starts covering 52 innings. Remember that Justin first entered the league in 2005 with his first full season being in 2006, and his strikeout rate this season of 7.10/9 is a career low while his walk rate of 3.63/9 is at its highest point since 2008. His velocity is down to 93.9 MPH, with batters getting better swings against him than ever given his weak soft/hard contact ratio of 15.5% / 33.3%.
Verlander simply can no longer be trusted as a decided favorite like he is here at this latter stage of his career.
Good Contact Ratio
Now, we are not particularly high on Allen either, as he comes in at 4-4 with a 4.28 ERA and 4.89 xFIP. Those frontline stats are basically on par with Verlander, but Allen has the advantage of having an underdog price. And he has the considerably better contact ratio of these two starters.
That soft/hard contact ratio for Logan stands at 18.6% / 26.8%, and he also has an above average groundball rate of 43.8%. The ERA and xFIP aside, he has really only been hit hard in one of his 12 starts this season. In the other 11 outings, he allowed three earned runs or less in eight of them and exactly four runs in the three others.
Allen also benefits here from facing a San Francisco offense that owns a dismal wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season of 79.
In the end, we currently rate Allen as the slightly better starting pitcher at this stage in Verlander’s career. And when you add in the Giants’ inability to hit southpaws well, we are betting on the Guardians as underdogs in Oracle Park.
Predicted Score: Guardians 5 – Giants 4
MLB Pick: Guardians ML (+124) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
