Today’s Top Pick
- Red Sox ML (-260)
- Yankees ML (-207)
MLB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+105) at BetOnline
The sportsbooks have released their betting odds for today’s baseball action, and we’re taking a look at four games with great betting value, including a parlay, so don’t miss out!
Boston Red Sox vs. Washington Nationals
Sunday, July 6, 2025 – 1:35 PM EDT at Nationals Park
Fading Washington’s New Starter
Shinnosuke Ogasawara starts for the Nationals today. He will make his professional debut. Crucially, Ogasawara is not pitching because he has performed impressively. Instead, he is pitching because the Nationals lack alternatives. Starting pitcher Trevor Williams just entered the injured list, so they need somebody.
Ogasawara is worth fading because he has already been struggling against minor-league batters. In the minors this year, his ERA is 4.50. While he doesn’t walk a lot of batters, he lacks the stuff to get them out. The Nationals just need somebody to throw strikes today, but throwing strikes never suffices for a victory.
He won’t get Boston’s batters out with his low-velocity fastball and his other unimpressive pitches that minor-league batters are thriving against. He won’t even be sharp by his own poor standards, because he has been rehabbing since June 14 and last pitched on July 25 — he is working his way back from an oblique injury. He already had the chance to make Washington’s rotation in the Spring, but he struggled during Spring Training.
Boston’s lineup would have to be incredibly cold to struggle today, but they are the opposite of cold right now: two days ago, the Red Sox scored eleven runs; yesterday, they scored ten.
Boston’s Pitcher Advantage
For the Nationals to be competitive today, they’d have to score a lot of runs, but they will struggle against Boston’s elite starter Garrett Crochet, who, incredibly, has allowed two runs or fewer in 15 of his 18 starts this year.
With Crochet allowing five runs in his last start, it is the perfect time to trust him given how rare it is for him to concede a lot of runs in an outing. It’s not the case at all that his form is bad. In his last start, his FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) was 2.76, which shows how well he truly performed.
The Red Sox bullpen, which ranks 22 spots ahead of Washington’s, will secure the full-game victory.
Parlay Leg 1: Red Sox ML (-260) at BetOnline
New York Yankees vs. New York Mets
Sunday, July 6, 2025 – 1:40 PM EDT at Citi Field
New York’s Losing Streak Ends Today
Bettors commonly like to ride streaks, but we can’t just blindly expect streaks to continue.
Expecting the Rockies or White Sox to lose a lot of games in a row is one thing, but we’re talking about the Yankees here, who after all their consecutive losses are still 48-41.
Now, any team’s bats will get cold, so any team can lose a lot of games when its lineup’s struggles become habitual, but the Yankees are not losing games due to their lineup. They still rank fourth in runs per game. They have scored at least five runs in five straight games. What they need is good pitching.
The Venerable Max Fried
Enter Max Fried, New York’s starter today, who will give them great pitching. Fried is in a great bounce-back spot: he enters today’s game with a 2-0 record in the two respective games that followed a start in which he allowed three or more earned runs. In those two games, he allowed a combined total of zero earned runs in 13 innings.
New York’s Pitching Edge
Fried’s outlook today is particularly strong because he yields a .229 BA and .323 slugging rate against Mets batters. Conversely, the Yankees will benefit from facing a Mets bullpen that ranks outside the top ten and starts Chris Devenski, against whom the Yankees collectively slug .714.
For the Yankees’ bullpen, normally solid Jonathan Loaisiga and Tim Hill, who has allowed two earned runs since the start of June, are among their quality relievers who are fresh today.
Parlay Leg 2: Yankees ML (-207) at BetOnline
The Parlay
- Red Sox ML (-260)
- Yankees ML (-207)
MLB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+105) at BetOnline
Kansas City Royals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Sunday, July 6, 2025 – 4:10 PM EDT at Chase Field
Kansas City’s Starter Today
Michael Lorenzen starts for the Royals today. While it hasn’t been obvious this year, Lorenzen likes being a Royal because he is more comfortable with Kansas City’s pitching coaches and has more success as a Royal. Last year, he pitched significantly better for Kansas City than he did for Texas.
This year, he has had the misfortune of a high BABIP (batting average of balls in play). The season-long disparity between his ERA and FIP, which was also apparent in his last start, suggests that he will start to allow fewer runs.
He has had success recently, as when he allowed two runs to the Padres on June 20, and he has allowed one run or fewer in several starts this year.
Expect him to resume his success against an Arizona lineup that, collectively, bats .189 and slugs .283 against him. It is silly to like Arizona’s lineup today because of Lorenzen’s ERA. Lorenzen’s high ERA explains why Arizona’s posted team total is as high as it is. This team total feels generous given Lorenzen’s success against Arizona’s hitters, which creates value in the Diamondbacks team total under.
Arizona’s Team Total Play
The Diamondbacks must be expected to struggle to score today because their lineup is significantly worse in day games than in night games. Their slugging rate is .53 lower in the former.
They will not only struggle against Lorenzen, but they will also fail to be productive against a Kansas City bullpen that ranks sixth and has top relievers like Lucas Erceg, Steven Cruz, and Carlos Estevez fresh. Each of them yields an ERA below 2.20.
MLB Pick: Diamondbacks Team Total Under 4.5 (+100) at BetOnline
San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics
Sunday, July 6, 2025 – 10:05 PM EDT at Sutter Health Park
A+ Matchup Advantage
The Giants start Hayden Birdsong, who has allowed a combined total of 14 runs in his past three starts.
Birdsong’s tendency, apparent in heat maps, to leave pitches in the more middle parts of the strike zone makes him extra vulnerable. He lacks a pitch to rely on, with his two favorite pitches both yielding a slugging rate of over .470. The A’s will pounce on all of his favorite pitches, against which they slug .456.
The Athletics’ starter today, Jacob Lopez, will also help them lead through five innings. In his last start, Lopez finally ended his streak of starts in which he allowed one run or zero runs.
Now is the perfect spot for him to get back on track, against a Giants lineup that, by far, ranks dead-last with a .308 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from lefties.
MLB Pick: 1st 5 – Athletics ML (-115) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
