MLB Best Bets for July 4: Sears to Get Straight A’s vs. Verlander Friday
-
LT Profits
- July 4, 2025
Top MLB Pick: Athletics ML (-102) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We had a winning 2-1 night on Wednesday, bringing us to a very solid 57-35-2 over our last 94 Major League Baseball picks. We return Friday to a full 15-game slate of MLB betting matchups for the 4th of July holiday with every team in action. And as usual, we have the three best bets that we feel have the most betting value at the currently posted MLB odds.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with our three selections for Friday consisting of one side and two totals. And as always, we have searched for the best odds available across the top sportsbooks.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Atlanta Braves
Friday, July 04, 2025 – 7:15 PM EDT at Truist Park
We foresee a lower-scoring game than the posted total suggests this 4th of July in Atlanta. Thus, we are backing the Under when Charlie Morton and the Orioles visit Spencer Strider and the Braves.
Facing Struggling Offense
Morton had such a terrible start to this season that he was delegated to the bullpen in late April. That poor beginning currently leaves him at 4-7 with a still ugly 5.63 ERA overall. However, the 41-year-old has maintained his velocity all year as his fastball of 94.1 MPH is exactly on par with last season, and he has been considerably better since re-entering the rotation. He has lowered his xFIP to 4.11 overall, more than 1.50 runs lower than the ERA.
Charlie re-joined the rotation on May 26th and has allowed three runs or less in five of his six starts then while posting a 2.90 ERA, 3.24 xFIP and a very good K/BB ratio of 10.74/2.90 per nine innings. He has also allowed just one home run in 31 innings over those six starts after allowing nine home runs in 41 innings prior to that.
Perhaps most importantly, he is facing a struggling offense. The Braves may be slightly above average in wRC+ against righties of 101 for the season, but that is still down from recent years, and they have scored either one or zero runs in three of their last four games.
Rounding to Form
Strider went 20-5 for the Braves in 2023, but he made just two starts last season before undergoing surgery to repair his UCL (not Tommy John Surgery) and he is only 3-6 in his nine comeback starts this year. However, while he may not be a Cy Young Award candidate like he was two years ago, he has still been quite solid despite the record.
He has been unlucky given his decent 3.86 ERA and better 3.73 xFIP, and he still has a double-digit strikeout rate of 10.47/9 that is validated by a 14.7% swinging strike rate. Spencer has also allowed three earned runs or less in five consecutive starts with a 2.98 xFIP and 11.40/9 strikeout rate over those outings, so while he may not reach his 2023 levels this year, he does appear to be reaching his peak form.
Also, after Strider departs, the Atlanta bullpen has been solid this year, ranking sixth in the majors in xFIP at 3.88 and 10th in ERA at 3.65.
So, with Strider getting closer to his previous great form and Morton pitching much better since getting back into the rotation, we are betting on the Under in Truist Park on Friday.
Predicted Score: Orioles 4 – Braves 3
MLB Pick: Under 9 (-125) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Friday, July 04, 2025 – 9:10 PM EDT at Dodger Stadium
We think that the posted total is a touch high at Dodger Stadium on Friday evening, so we are betting on the Under when Ben Casparius and the Dodgers host Lance McCullers Jr. and the Astros.
Effective in Bulk Role
Casparius has made just two conventional starts so far this season, but he has primarily been a bulk reliever following an opener, so he is used to working starter-type innings. And he has been quite effective at that, going 6-2 with a 3.97 ERA and a nice 3.66 xFIP through 56.2 innings. Yes, he allowed more than three runs for the first time all year last time out while being roughed up for six runs in four innings of bulk relief, but we like his chances for a bounce-back outing.
Ben has a good K/BB ratio of 8.58/1.91 per nine innings, and there is potential for further improvement to the strikeout rate given his very good 13.5% swinging strike rate. He has good pop on a 96.1 MPH fastball but also has three other pitches that he has thrown over 13% of the time to help keep batters off balance.
In fact, his three secondary pitches are all highly rated on Stuff+, with his cutter at 109, the curveball at 117 and the slider at an amazing 135! This has led to an excellent soft/hard contact ratio of 18.0% / 24.6%.
Great Bullpen Support
Now, the reason that this total is available at 9 is because McCullers had a 1-3 record with a 6.61 ERA through eight starts, covering 32.2 innings. However, he has really had only two poor outings that are skewing the ERA, especially with the low innings sample.
Besides those two stinkers, Lance allowed three runs or less in five of his other six starts and four runs in the other. Furthermore, his xFIP is over two runs lower than the ERA at 4.38, and he has combined an excellent strikeout rate of 11.02/9 overall with a good groundball rate of 45.2%, which we always like to see.
Should McCullers need relief, he has the support of one of the best bullpens in baseball. In fact, the Houston pen leads the majors in both collective WAR at 4.9 and strikeout rate at 10.76/9 while also ranking second in xFIP at 3.66.
To summarize, we expect Casparius to return to his good form tonight after his first poor outing of the year, while McCullers is not as bad as his ERA and has good bullpen support. We are going Under the total in Los Angeles on the 4th of July.
Predicted Score: Dodgers 5 – Astros 2
MLB Pick: Under 9 (+101) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
San Francisco Giants vs. Athletics
Friday, July 04, 2025 – 10:05 PM EDT at Sutter Health Park
We have been playing against the declining Justin Verlander of the Giants all season and we are doing so again on Friday, giving our support to southpaw JP Sears and the Athletics at home.
Still a Prime Fade
The 42-year-old Verlander is coming off probably the two worst seasons of his career with last year being his very worst, and he is struggling again this year. And yet, we feel he is continuing to be overvalued by the sportsbooks even while not winning a game yet in 2025!
Justin comes in at 0-5 over 13 starts while spending a stretch of time on the injured list, with a 4.26 ERA and a poor 4.79 xFIP. His velocity has declined to 93.9 MPH, resulting in a career-low strikeout rate of 7.32/9, and even his walks are up to 3.33/9, the highest walk rate since way back in 2008.
Verlander also has a poor soft/hard contact ratio of 14.6% / 34.0%, and now having a below-average Stuff+ of 96 for his fastball does not help matters. In short, Justin is now a prime fade when the opponent can be had at a reasonable price, as is the case tonight.
Good Form vs. Weak Offense
Besides Verlander being constantly overvalued, we also think that Sears is underrated right now. Yes, he is 6-7 with a 5.09 ERA and 4.87 xFIP, but he is trending in the right direction as of late and is coming off probably his best start of the season.
JP has allowed three runs or less in three of his last four starts, and he went into Yankee Stadium last week and tossed 5.2 scoreless innings while limiting the Yankees to just two hits. Sears is mostly a fastball/slider pitcher, and he has increased the usage of the latter this season, which is a wise choice given the slider rates 122 on Stuff+. This has helped lower his hard contact rate to a better-than-average 29.5% from 32.5% last season.
Sears is also facing a San Francisco offense that has struggled against left-handers this year, ranking 25th in wRC+ against them at 76 (or 24% below average).
In summary, we plan to continue fading Verlander often unless he starts displaying glimpses of his old form, and we feel Sears is better than his overall numbers. Bet on the Athletics in Sacramento at a cheap price.
Predicted Score: Athletics 5 – Giants 3
MLB Pick: Athletics ML (-102) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
