MLB Best Bets for July 30: Rays to Shine Brightly in the Bronx
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LT Profits
- July 30, 2025
We went 1-2 on Tuesday, but the damage was limited with the winner being at odds of +138, and we are still 68-50-2 over our last 120 Major League Baseball picks with no heavy favorites at the top-rated sportsbooks.
We return on Wednesday to a full 15-game slate of MLB betting matchups with every team in action. As usual, we have the three best bets that we feel have the most betting value at the currently posted MLB odds. These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with our three selections for Wednesday consisting of two underdog sides and one total.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. New York Yankees
Wednesday, July 30, 2025 – 07:05 PM EDT at Yankee Stadium
We see nice underdog value at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review), and we are thus tabbing Zack Littell and the Rays to upset when they visit Will Warren and the Yankees.
Warren Too Erratic for this Price, Rays 8th in wRC+
We are not as high on Warren as some others may be, as he comes in at 6-5 with a bloated 4.82 ERA, with the latter being especially disturbing for a decided favorite like this.
It is also alarming that he has now gone six straight outings without being credited with a Quality Start. Granted, he fell one out shy of a QS last time out, allowing two earned runs in 5.2 innings. However, his high pitch count ultimately did not allow him to finish that task.
And therein lies the problem! While his supporters point to his excellent strikeout rate of 10.66 strikeouts per nine innings, we counter with his control issues, which lead to a walk rate of 4.30 walks per nine innings, the second worst in baseball among pitchers with at least 100 innings.
It also does not help that he has a weak soft/hard contact ratio of 13.9%/33.4%.
Will must now deal with a Tampa Bay offense that is eighth in the Major Leagues in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers at 107 (7% above average).
Littell with a Better ERA and Not Facing Judge
Littell enters at 8-8, but he has a much better ERA here at 3.72, which is a nice trait for an underdog.
He is also the opposite of Warren in terms of command, as Littell has the lowest walk rate in the majors at 1.19/9! In fact, he has not walked a single batter in either of his last two starts while going exactly six innings in each outing.
Granted, Zack has not been a big strikeout guy at 5.96/9, but he has generated a good groundball rate of 41.3% thanks to a splitter rated 105 on Stuff+ that has late downward movement. And while he was hit hard for five runs in six innings in Cincinnati on Friday, that snapped a string of six straight starts of allowing three runs or less.
He now has a chance to rebound against a Yankees lineup that is still without the current favorite to win the American League MVP in Aaron Judge, who is out with an elbow injury.
In the end, this is a matchup of a pitcher in Littell with the lowest walk rate in the league and one in Warren who has the second highest.
Add Tampa Bay hitting righties well and no Judge for the Yankees, plus a predicted scoreboard of Rays 5 – Yankees 3, and you can surely bet on the Rays at a nice underdog price of +122.
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Cincinnati Reds
Wednesday, July 30, 2025 – 07:10 PM EDT at Great American Ball Park
We expect an abundance of scoring in the Queen City on Wednesday, so we are betting on the Over when Shohei Ohtani and the Dodgers visit Nick Martinez and the Reds.
Ohtani Limited Innings, Bullpen Struggling in July
Ohtani recently returned to pitching after not doing so at all last season following elbow surgery, and the Dodgers are opting to be very careful with him by limiting his innings.
His form has been fine, as he has a 1.50 ERA, 3.29 xFIP and a K/BB ratio of 9.75/2.25 through six starts. The problem, though, is that sampling is over just 12 total innings.
Shohei has pitched three innings in each of his last two starts, but it may very well be that the Dodgers will keep him at that three-inning threshold for a couple of more outings. It is also possible that he may go the entire regular season without exceeding five innings.
The bullpen was decent to begin the year and is still in the top half of the league in xFIP, ranking 13th at 4.05. However, the pen is struggling mightily this month, ranking 28th of 30 teams in xFIP at 4.74 in July.
Don’t Trust Martinez Stuff Against Potent Offense
Martinez comes in with a 9-9 record with a high 4.69 ERA and 4.41 xFIP.
Yes, he has allowed two runs or less in six of his last eight starts, including taking a no-hitter into the ninth inning on June 27th. But frankly, his metrics do not support that kind of form. Moreover, he was truly awful in his two bad starts during this current span, allowing a total of 14 runs and 16 hits plus three walks in only 11.2 combined innings.
Nick is now 34 years old and has seen his average fastball velocity drop to 92.5 MPH this season. That has resulted in a modest strikeout rate of 6.40/9. And it is not as if he makes up for it with groundballs, as that rate is only at 36.8%. Perhaps the biggest indicator that his current form is a mirage is his low overall Stuff+ of 92.
We expect a descent back to earth for Martinez here against a Dodgers offense that is second in the majors in wRC+ against righties at 117.
Given Martinez’s expected regression against a great offense, a predicted scoreboard of Reds 6 – Dodgers 5, and what has been a shaky Dodgers bullpen expected to carry a heavy load tonight, we are going Over 9 in Cincinnati while priced around -127 at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review).
Miami Marlins vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Wednesday, July 30, 2025 – 07:45 PM EDT at Busch Stadium
We are calling for an upset in the Show Me State on Wednesday, as we are supporting Cal Quantrill and the Marlins as dogs visiting Miles Mikolas and the Cardinals.
Mikolas’s High ERA and xFIP, Marlins Hot vs. Righties
Mikolas has not done anything to inspire confidence in him as a favorite this season, as he is 6-7 with a 4.94 ERA and 4.69 xFIP.
For context, that ERA is the 10th worst in the majors among pitchers with at least 100 innings this year, while the xFIP is the ninth worst of that group. And while he pitched five scoreless innings against the Padres on Friday, he still earned just a one-game xFIP of 5.38 for that start while allowing seven hits and recording only one strikeout.
Miles is now 36 years old and has seen his fastball velocity drop to a career low of 92.4 MPH. That has led to a low strikeout rate of 6.17/9 and his groundball rate of 37.5% is way down from 41.9% last year.
That has helped lead to a low overall Stuff+ of 89, and while his Location+ is a very good 109, the lack of velocity is still resulting in a hard contact rate of 31.7%.
Also, the Miami offense is a bit underrated, as that unit has a wRC+ of 103 against right-handers for the season and has been hotter against righties in July, ranking sixth at 114.
Quantrill Better xFIP, Cards 27th in OPS in July
Quantrill may not have great frontline stats at 3-8 with a 5.05 ERA over 92.2 innings, but he does have the better xFIP in this pitching matchup at 4.29, which is never a bad thing for an underdog. He has also allowed a total of one run (on a solo homer) and five hits over his last two starts, covering 11 innings without walking a batter.
Cal has one of the widest arsenals in the league with seven different pitches and can keep batters off balance, as he has thrown five of those pitches more than 11% of the time. And the results have kept improving as the season has gone on, as Quantrill has a 3.68 ERA and a nicely aligning 3.71 xFIP over his last six starts.
He is facing a St. Louis offense that seems to have thrown in the towel. The Cardinals still have good wRC+ against right-handers for the season at 106, but that figure has dropped to 96 in July, and they are 27th in the league this month in OPS against righties at a scant .685.
We think all the pieces are in place for an upset in St. Louis tonight, with Mikolas having a bad year, Quantrill showing steady improvement and Miami having the better offense against righties this month.
Bet on the Marlins as road underdogs at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review).
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
