MLB Best Bets for July 27: Undervalued Pitchers Duel in St. Louis
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Rainman M.
- July 27, 2025
The MLB action is heating up, and the sportsbooks have released their betting odds for today’s baseball action.
Three games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in: Rockies vs. Orioles, Rays vs. Reds, and Padres vs. Cardinals.
Colorado Rockies vs. Baltimore Orioles
Sunday, July 27, 2025 – 1:35 PM EDT at Camden Yards
Baltimore’s Let-Down Spot
The decisive trend for this game revolves around the fact that Baltimore scored 18 runs yesterday. It is tempting to look at this scoring output and to think automatically that the Orioles will win today. Such a mindset, though, fails to account for the high amount of variance in scoring outputs from game to game.
A lineup can score 18 runs in one game after scoring five runs in a loss in its previous game, as Baltimore’s did. On July 27, the Orioles scored 22 runs. They scored three runs in their following game in a loss.
This often happens: it seems like offenses sometimes score so much in one game that they have less to offer in the following game, when somehow scoring just three runs suddenly feels so hard to do.
Baltimore, in fact, is 0-5 in the game following a win in which it scored ten runs or more. History shows that this is a let-down spot for Baltimore.
Austin Gomber’s Competence
The Rockies start Austin Gomber, who is coming off a start in which he allowed a lot of runs, although he was victimized by an unfortunately high BABIP (batting average of balls in play).
His FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) was 3.26 in that start, showing the quality of his current form and substantiating our confidence that he will provide the necessary competence to handle a Baltimore lineup in a major down spot — the O’s have reached three runs one time in this let-down situation.
Colorado’s Pitching Edge Today
For the Orioles, Tomoyuki Sugano will start. Sugano constantly struggles: he has yielded an ERA of over 7.30 in four of his last five starts. His ERA was 4.50 or worse in each of his last seven starts. With these results, it is absurd that he is favored so strongly.
He walks a lot of batters and gives up a lot of home runs and a lot of hard contact in general. When he throws strikes, batters easily make good contact because his pitches lack quality and often land in more dangerous parts of the strike zone.
Colorado’s batters will gladly encounter his pitches. Since their substantial team-wide improvement beginning on June 2, they rank ninth with a .449 slugging rate against Sugano’s pitches from righties.
With Baltimore’s bullpen ranking towards the bottom and the Rockies having their top relievers fresh today thanks to yesterday’s blowout scenario, their pitching will prove superior.
Moneyline or Run-Line
If I look past the above analysis and simply view the odds, then the smart move would be to devote one half-unit to the run-line and another half-unit to the moneyline because the Rockies’ run-line is cheaply priced.
Given my above reasoning, though, I firmly see the Rockies winning and therefore recommend a wager on the Rockies moneyline at Bookmaker. The payout will be great since oddsmakers are still undervaluing the Rockies after their historically awful start to the season before June.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Cincinnati Reds
Sunday, July 27, 2025 – 1:40 PM EDT at Great American Ball Park
Cincinnati’s Struggling Starter
Brady Singer starts for the Reds today. In his last start, he allowed seven earned runs in 2.1 innings to Washington. This start typifies the significant decline that Singer is experiencing this year. Compared to last year, when he played for Kansas City, his ERA and FIP are both significantly higher.
Opposing batters are finding greater success against his favorite pitches. He most frequently throws his sinker, which he throws 40 percent of the time and which batters this season slug .487 against.
Great Outlook for the Rays’ Lineup
On offense, the Rays have a tremendous outlook today. They will thrive against all of Singer’s favorite pitches, against which from righties they rank eighth with a .444 slugging rate.
Moreover, they benefit from the fact that Singer relies heavily on inducing fly balls. They are at their best against fly ball-inducing pitchers, against whom their slugging rate is almost .60 higher than it is against ground ball-inducing pitchers.
With an otherwise statistically mediocre Reds bullpen, most recently seeing significant usage from its top relievers, the Rays’ team total over at Bovada is worth a confident investment.
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals
Sunday, July 27, 2025 – 2:15 PM EDT at Busch Stadium
The Angle
The total is so high for this game because both starting pitchers entered this season with negative reputations: San Diego’s Stephen Kolek bounces around from team to team; St. Louis’ Michael McGreevy is a youngster who has barely established himself professionally.
Both pitchers, though, have thrived on numerous occasions. Kolek allowed one run or zero runs in Cincinnati and Milwaukee, for example. McGreevy allowed one run in seven innings in his last start.
When they are in good form, they ably lean on a good mix of pitches — with neither guy throwing a single pitch as much as 28% of the time — that make them less predictable for batters, that tend to land along the borders of the strike zone where batters achieve weaker contact, and that benefit from relatively strong movement.
The point is that both pitchers can succeed. The matchup just has to be right for them. When the specific matchup is propitious, then we’ll find betting value in the under because each pitcher’s general reputation inflates the total.
Matchup and Spot Call for an Under
The data overwhelmingly calls for the “under.” Both starting pitchers have the matchup edge against the lineup that they’ll face — Kolek with his pitches and his ground ball-inducing tendencies; McGreevy with his pitches.
St. Louis ranks well below average against Kolek’s favorite pitches from righties and, with a .349 slugging rate, suffers against ground ball-inducing pitchers.
San Diego ranks 27th with a .388 slugging rate against McGreevy’s favorite pitches from righties and is poor against pitchers regardless of whether they tend to induce fly balls or ground balls.
Both Lineups Underperform in Day Games
Moreover, both lineups are at their worst in day affairs, with the Padres and Cardinals both slugging below .375 in these games. Both starting pitchers are at their best in day contests: Kolek is 1-0 and owns a 2.12 ERA in three day starts; McGreevy is 2-1 with a 2.42 ERA in four day starts.
With both bullpens worn out, let’s stick to a first-five play and avoid the chaos of less reliable or tired relievers seeing the mound in later innings.
Even the full game under, though, should still hit with both lineups tending to struggle to score more than a run over the course of the entire game.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
