MLB Best Bets for July 25: Mariners to Woo the Angels in Anaheim
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LT Profits
- July 25, 2025
We had a winning 2-1 night on Wednesday, bringing us to 67-46-2 over our last 115 Major League Baseball picks. We are back Friday for another full 15-game slate of MLB betting matchups with every team in action. And as usual, we have the three best bets that we feel have the most betting value at the currently posted MLB odds.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with our three selections for Friday consisting of one favored side and two totals. We have also searched for the best betting odds available across the top sportsbooks for each of our selections.
Atlanta Braves vs. Texas Rangers
Friday, July 25, 2025 – 8:05 PM EDT at Globe Life Field
We are looking for a scarcity of scoring in Texas on Friday night, so we are backing the Under when Nathan Eovaldi and the Rangers host recent acquisition Joey Wentz and the Braves.
All-Star Snub Eovaldi Still in Great Form
Eovaldi may have been the most notable All-Star Game snub in the league this year, so much so that the Rangers paid him his All-Star bonus per his contract, even while being left off the team! He comes in at 7-3 while having the lowest ERA in the majors among pitchers with at least 90 innings pitched at a fantastic 1.58, ranking fifth in that group in xFIP at 2.73 and owning a Pitching WAR of 3.0.
Best of all, he is showing no signs of slowing down as he has allowed a grand total of one run over his last three starts with 19 strikeouts against just two walks in 18.2 innings. That has become the norm for Nathan this season, as he combines a great K/BB ratio of 9.30/1.38 per nine innings with an excellent groundball rate of 51.7%.
This has resulted in allowing three earned runs or fewer in all 16 of his starts this year, a streak that extends to 18 straight such starts going back to last season. And once Eovaldi leaves, he has the support of a Texas bullpen ranked third in the Major Leagues in ERA at 3.24.
Wentz Pitching Well for Braves, Texas Can’t Hit Lefties
The southpaw Wentz is now with his third different team this season, and the overall results have not been great as he is a combined 2-1 but with a 5.71 ERA and 4.91 xFIP over 41 innings, which were all in relief before last Saturday. However, he has yet to allow a run in an Atlanta uniform and is facing an offense that struggles against lefties.
He had an impressive Braves debut in long relief, tossing three scoreless and hitless innings in St. Louis on July 12th with six strikeouts. That prompted Atlanta to give Joey his first start of the season against the mighty Yankees on Saturday, and he responded with another four scoreless innings while allowing only two hits. He should now be stretched out enough to go five or six innings if he pitches well tonight, given that he has been a starter in the majors in the past.
And Wentz benefits from facing a Texas offense ranked 28th in wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season at a mere 74 (or 26% below average).
So, while Wentz probably will not maintain his form with Atlanta in the long run, he is capable of another gem tonight against the Texas offense. Add Eovaldi’s streak of allowing three earned runs or less and bet on the Under in Arlington Friday.
Predicted Score: Braves 3 – Rangers 2
Cleveland Guardians vs. Kansas City Royals
Friday, July 25, 2025 – 8:10 PM EDT at Kauffman Stadium
In a matchup of two offenses in the bottom third of the league in wRC+ against right-handed pitching, we are betting on the Under when Gavin Williams and the Guardians visit Michael Wacha and the Royals in Kansas City.
Nice Strikeout Rate and Stuff for Williams
Williams has a 6-4 record that should probably be much better, given that he owns a 3.54 ERA and has allowed three earned runs or less in 16 of his 20 starts and four runs in three others. That includes allowing three earned runs or less in eight of his last nine starts, as the 25-year-old looks to be coming into his own in his third Major League season.
Gavin has a blazing fastball averaging 96.6 MPH, but that is not all, as he has two secondary pitches rated above 100 in Stuff+ in his cutter (114) and slider (107). That nice mix has enabled him to combine a very good strikeout rate of 9.14/9 with a good groundball rate of 41.8%. Furthermore, his swinging strike rate of 12.3% and overall Stuff+ of 101 are both at their highest points of his brief Major League career.
Williams is facing a Kansas City offense ranked 27th in the league in wRC+ against righties at 87, a figure that plummets further to 76 at home in Kauffman Stadium.
Wacha Can Maintain ERA Against Sub-Par Offense
Granted, we have not been particularly high on Wacha in recent years, and we are not big believers in the 3.62 ERA for the 34-year-old this season, given his higher 4.44 xFIP. Still, he has allowed a total of two runs and five hits over his last two starts, covering 11 innings, and is not facing a very good offense in this spot either.
Michael does offer nice variety with a vast six-pitch arsenal, five of which he has thrown over 10% of the time. We are still dubious about his weak K/BB ratio of 6.83/2.72 per nine innings, but at least he has limited the damage with a decent soft/hard contact ratio of 18.2%/28.5% and is mostly keeping the ball in the yard with a home run rate allowed of 0.88/9. But make no mistake, this play has more to do with the offense Wacha is facing than with his talent.
The Cleveland offense is ranked barely above the Royals in wRC+ against right-handers, in 26th at 92, and with very little pop while ranking 28th in OPS against them at .684.
Thus, we think that Wacha can maintain his current hot streak against that struggling offense. And with Williams probably deserving a better record, we are going Under this total on Friday.
Predicted Score: Guardians 4 – Royals 2
Seattle Mariners vs. Los Angeles Angels
Friday, July 25, 2025 – 9:38 PM EDT at Angel Stadium
We are big fans of Bryan Woo of the Mariners, who is having his first injury-free season in the majors so far this year. Therefore, we are backing him as a road favorite when visiting Jose Soriano and the Angels Friday night in Anaheim.
Underrated Woo with Great Command and Top 20 ERA
Woo is in his third season in the big leagues, but each of his first two years was shortened due to injury. Still, he has been very good when he has made it to the mound, as he has a 3.25 ERA and 3.88 xFIP in 329.2 career innings with a good command ratio of 8.44/1.80 per nine innings. Some may have been skeptical of his 2.89 ERA and 3.75 xFIP last season, given the limited size of 22 total starts, but we feel he has quieted those skeptics this year.
Bryan is already approaching his total number of starts in 2024 with 19 so far this season, and he has maintained the ERA at 2.91 (17th in the majors) while improving the xFIP to 3.56. He has remained consistently good in his command ratio even while finally getting a full workload, with the K/BB sitting at 8.58/1.64 per nine innings over 120.2 frames.
Woo’s average velocity on his fastball is a career-best 95.6 MPH, and his sinker is also heavier than ever at 95.2 MPH, helping lead to a 40.1% groundball rate. He also grades out 104 overall on Stuff+ with three pitches rated over 100.
Soriano Faces Good Offense with No Bullpen Help
Now, we have nothing against Soriano as he should probably be better than 7-7 given his 3.83 ERA and especially his 3.53 xFIP. He has also had some bad luck with a .317 BABIP allowed and a 69.6% strand rate. And while Soriano has the lower strikeout rate of these two starters at 7.73, that is complemented by leading the majors in groundball rate at an obscene 67.6%.
Still, while these pitchers are close in xFIP, Jose does have a much higher walk rate at 4.28/9, and he dangerously combines that extra traffic with a weak soft/hard contact ratio of 13.4% / 35.9%. That hard contact rate is especially surprising considering all the groundballs that he induces.
Moreover, Soriano is facing a Seattle offense that ranks fifth in the majors in wRC+ against right-handers at a very good 115, a figure that is a bit better on the road at 119. Also, he cannot count on much help from a bullpen ranked 28th of 30 teams in both xFIP (4.52) and ERA (5.09).
The bottom line here is that while Soriano has a good xFIP, we still grade out Woo as the better starting pitcher here. When you also factor in the Mariners having the better offense vs. righties and the bad Angels’ bullpen, we are betting on the Mariners as road chalk.
Predicted Score: Mariners 5 – Angels 3
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
