MLB Best Bets for July 23: Sears to Grade Out Straight A’s in Arlington
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LT Profits
- July 23, 2025
We had a losing 1-2 night on Tuesday, but we are still a solid 65-45-2 over our last 112 Major League Baseball picks. We return Wednesday for another big 15-game slate of MLB betting matchups with every team in action. As usual, we have the three best bets that we feel have the most betting value at the currently posted MLB odds.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with our three selections for Wednesday consisting of two sides and one total. We have also searched for the best MLB betting odds available across the top sportsbooks for each of our selections.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Cleveland Guardians
Wednesday, July 23, 2025 – 6:40 PM EDT at Progressive Field
We see a decided pitching edge for Slade Cecconi of the Guardians when they host Zach Eflin and the Orioles on Wednesday, so we are backing Cleveland as home favorites in this spot.
Cecconi Having Breakout Year, Facing Slumping Offense
Cecconi was highly regarded when he first came up with the Diamondbacks in 2023, but he was considered a major bust during his two years in Arizona and was traded to the Guardians this past offseason. Well, the change of scenery has done him well as he is having the breakout season that many have been waiting for.
Granted the W/L record is only 5-4, but that comes with a good 3.84 ERA. Slade has posted career highs in both strikeout rate (8.24/9) and groundball rate (40.0%). His fastball velocity is good enough at 94.3 MPH, but he also has three other pitches that he has thrown over 10% of the time, including a cutter rated 103 on Stuff+, and he has a vast six-pitch arsenal overall. That has led to allowing three runs or fewer in nine of his 11 starts, including two runs or fewer seven times!
He now gets to face a slumping Baltimore offense, as while the Orioles still have a respectable wRC+ of 103 against right-handers overall, they are 28th out of 30 teams in that metric this month of July at a measly 79.
Eflin Coming Off Injured List with Undeserved Record
Eflin is coming off the injured list to take this start after missing nearly a month with a back issue. Yes, he had a winning 6-5 record at the time of going down, but that mark is undeserved given his gruesome 5.95 ERA. Moreover, his weak metrics have been in effect the entire season, so the more recent back injury cannot be used as an excuse.
Zach is now 31 years old, and his strikeout rate is at a career low 6.10/9, which is validated by also having a career worst swinging strike rate of 9.1%. That certainly qualifies him as a contact-pitcher, and the bad news there is his poor soft/hard contact ratio of 12.1% / 36.4%. Even his overall Stuff+ of 93 is a career low and way down from 100 just last season.
So, while each pitcher currently sits one game over .500, Cecconi has the better metrics while just starting to come into his own, while Eflin has one of the worst ERAs in the league at an advancing age. Bet on the Guardians at BetAnySports as home favorites.
Predicted Score: Guardians 5 – Orioles 3
Boston Red Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies
Wednesday, July 23, 2025 – 7:05 PM EDT at Citizens Bank Park
We are expecting a higher scoring game than the posted total implies and are thus betting on the Over when Lucas Giolito and the Red Sox visit Jesus Luzardo and the Phillies in Philadelphia.
Giolito with Lucky ERA Given Hard Air Contact
Giolito has good surface numbers as he enters at 6-2 with a 3.59 ERA and 3.98 xFIP. However, we feel that his metrics do not support the ERA, and the wheels may already be starting to come off as he allowed four earned runs in just 5.1 innings last time out. That snapped a string of six straight starts of allowing three runs or less.
However, we think that the negative regression in his last start was inevitable, and we see more of that coming. Our biggest issue for Lucas is his poor combination of a bad soft/hard contact ratio of 15.1%/33.8% and a low groundball rate of 35.9%, which is much too close to the hard contact rate. He has managed to escape so far with a decent home run rate allowed of 1.04/9, but that seems lucky given all the hard air contact, and he is now pitching in a hitters’ park.
Moreover, Giolito’s overall Stuff+ of 92 is at its lowest point since that metric was introduced in 2020.
Luzardo Has Been Erratic, Rough Last Outing
Similarly, we are not so sure that Luzardo can be trusted despite his 8-5 record, as that mark comes with a mediocre 4.29 ERA. He has been very erratic all season, with the capability of either tossing a gem or getting lit up in any outing. But he is not in the best of cycles right now while being credited with only three Quality Starts in his last nine starts overall.
We again saw the “bad” Jesus in his last start Friday against the Angels, as he lasted only 4.2 innings while allowing four earned runs on seven hits plus two walks. His walk rate for the season of 3.14/9 marks the first time it has been over 3.00 since 2022, and that extra traffic gets more treacherous when you consider his hard contact rate of 32.2% is well up from 28.1% last year.
Now, the southpaw must deal with a Boston lineup ranked sixth in the Major Leagues in wRC+ against left-handers at 110.
In the end, we think this is a case where both pitchers have not been as good as their records for the most part. This has us going Over the total at Heritage Sports in this spot.
Predicted Score: Phillies 6 – Red Sox 4
Athletics vs. Texas Rangers
Wednesday, July 23, 2025 – 8:05 PM EDT at Globe Life Field
In a matchup where we rate the two starting pitchers relatively close, we are opting for the underdog value with JP Sears and the Athletics when they visit Patrick Corbin and the Rangers in Arlington.
Sears Should Bounce Back as Rangers Can’t Hit Lefties
Now, we totally get that Sears does not have good frontline numbers at 7-8 with a 5.13 ERA and 4.75 xFIP through 20 starts and 101.2 innings. And he had his worst start in a while on Friday in Cleveland, allowing six earned runs in four innings. However, we always thought the southpaw had promising metrics, and he had appeared to have figured things out with four straight starts of allowing three runs or less, including two scoreless outings before Friday’s blow-up.
We do like JP’s chances of bouncing back against a weak offense vs. left-handed pitching here, though. After all, the previous hot stretch prior to Friday coincided with Sears increasing the use of his slider, which rates an excellent 122 on Stuff+. And even with that last stinker, he still has a nice strikeout rate of 9.12/9 and a good soft/hard contact ratio of 19.7% / 28.2% in the five starts since adjusting the slider usage.
Perhaps best of all, he is now facing a Texas offense ranked 28th out of 30 Major League teams in wRC+ against lefties at 75 (or 25% below average).
Corbin Having Good Year, but Is Overpriced
Now, we actually like what Corbin has done this season as he has rejuvenated his career with the Rangers in his first year in the American League. After being widely regarded as the worst starting pitcher in baseball in recent seasons, he has pitched much better than his 6-7 record this year as he has a 3.91 ERA while allowing three runs or less in 16 of his 18 starts. The W/L record has been held back by the Texas struggles on offense most of the year.
We have even benefited from Patrick’s success ourselves this season, but that has usually been when he is an underdog. The issue here is that he is a decided favorite this time around, and we still do not think he will get much run support with the Rangers facing a left-hander. And that is not to mention Sears being just as good since incorporating his slider more.
The bottom line here is that we think the starting pitching matchup is fairly close, which already gives inherent value to a decided underdog. Add the Rangers’ struggles vs. southpaws and bet on the Athletics at a nice price at Bookmaker.
Predicted Score: Athletics 4 – Rangers 3
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
