MLB Best Bets for July 20: Can Hunter Brown Lead Astros Back?
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Rainman M.
- July 20, 2025
The MLB odds board is packed with value on today’s slate, and four matchups stand out as particularly worth targeting: Royals vs. Marlins, Red Sox vs. Cubs, Astros vs. Mariners, and Tigers vs. Rangers.
Read on and come with us as we break down each game and highlight the sharpest betting angles of the day.
Kansas City Royals vs. Miami Marlins
Sunday, July 20, 2025 – 1:40 PM EDT at loanDepot park
The Improved Kris Bubic
Kansas City starts Kris Bubic today after he was selected to his first ever All-Star Game. By far, Bubic is enjoying the best season of his career as a starter. He already had success as a reliever in recent years. By adding a slider, using his time and new experience as a reliever to improve his mentality, and making other changes, he has become reliable.
His last start, in which he allowed three runs in 5.2 innings to Pittsburgh, doesn’t change the fact of his reliability. In that game, he was the victim of an unfortunately high BABIP (batting average of balls in play). His 2.03 FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) shows how well he truly performed.
One can always count on him to thrive against soft tests. His best starts came against Giants and Orioles teams that rank bottom-three against his favorite pitches from lefties. He allowed zero earned runs in 18.2 innings against those two teams.
Miami will prove to be another soft test for him. The Marlins rank 26th with a .347 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from lefties.
Anything But Junk
Janson Junk starts for the Marlins today, and he enters this game in terrific form: he has allowed zero runs in his last two starts, which took place in Cincinnati and in Baltimore, respectively. Three starts ago, he held the Twins to two runs in six innings.
Junk’s success against the Twins reflects his season-long dominance at home, where he boasts a 1.89 ERA. His success at home has persisted against teams that match up similarly poorly as Kansas City does against him.
The Royals’ impoverished lineup that ranks second-to-last in runs per game will not threaten our first-five “under” play. So let’s back the 1st 5 Under market at BetOnline!
Boston Red Sox vs. Chicago Cubs
Sunday, July 20, 2025 – 2:20 PM EDT at Wrigley Field
Boston’s Imperfect Starter
When you consider the season as a whole, it makes sense that Boston is favored with Garrett Crochet starting, as his ERA is terrific and, in his last start, he was clearly dominant.
It’s tempting to blindly expect him to continue dominating. But Crochet is human, after all. He tends to fall back down to Earth in the starts that follow such a dominant outing. For example, he threw seven shutout innings on July 24 before, in his following start, allowing five runs to the Reds. His starts on June 7 and April 24 further substantiate my point.
The Cubs are well-built to precipitate Crochet’s decline today. They rank seventh with a .454 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from lefties.
Boston’s Poor Form
The Red Sox are favored on the road also because oddsmakers are slow to adjust. They do not account for Boston’s current form: the Red Sox have scored all of three runs in two post-All-Star Game contests.
With Cubs starter Cade Horton boasting a 2.54 home ERA, his strength at home will complement a fresh and highly ranked Cubs bullpen and contribute to a low-scoring output for Boston’s lineup.
The Red Sox lineup will continue to struggle while their starting pitcher fails to remotely approach the level of dominance that he needs to attain to keep his team competitive today.
Back the Cubs on the moneyline and grab the best plus money value available.
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners
Sunday, July 20, 2025 – 4:10 PM EDT at T-Mobile Park
On The Hunt
While it is true today’s starter for the Astros, Hunter Brown, has given up many runs in his last two starts, the underlying metrics for his most recent start indicate that he will turn things around because they convey the quality of his pitching, which is most clearly manifest in the terrific job that he did in limiting his last opponent’s hard contact — he held the Rangers to an 8.3% hard contact rate while inducing soft contact at a rate over twice as high.
Seattle is just the team for Brown to victimize. Collectively, the Mariners bat .202 and slug .288 against him. Cal Raleigh, for example, is 2-for-15 with six strikeouts with Brown on the mound. Randy Arozarena is 1-for-11 with four strikeouts.
Like their lineup as a whole, Seattle’s key hitters will struggle today.
Houston, We Have Liftoff
Houston should be expected to thrive against Seattle starter Bryan Woo because he is a heavy fly ball-inducing pitcher. The Astros slug .454 against this type of pitcher.
With the Astros coming off an extra-inning, nail-biting loss and looking to fend off a sweep against a Seattle team that is starting to threaten them in the AL West standings, one should expect an extra edge from them.
It is extremely fair to expect them, as they are also supported by a high-ranking bullpen, to stay at least within a run of Seattle.
Parlay Leg 1: Astros +1.5 (-215)
Detroit Tigers vs. Texas Rangers
Sunday, July 20, 2025 – 7:10 PM EDT at Globe Life Field
In Skubal We Trust
Detroit starts Tarik Skubal today, who in his one start against the Rangers this year held them to one run in seven innings. His 0.09 FIP in that game shows just how superbly he truly performed.
One has to expect another dominant performance from him today because the Rangers rank 28th with a .337 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from lefties.
While the Tigers’ lineup has been cold, it now gets to face a lefty in Rangers starter Jacob Latz, who this year has already allowed one run in a third of an inning against them.
Ranking fourth with a .461 slugging rate against Latz’s favorite pitches from lefties, they will only need to rediscover a semblance of their excellent first-half-of-the-season form to secure their team a lead through five innings.
Parlay Leg 2: 1st 5 Tigers ML (-215)
The Parlay
- Astros +1.5 (-215)
- 1st 5 Tigers ML (-215)
Final Verdict
Sunday’s MLB slate presents excellent value for bettors keyed in on pitching edges and matchup data. Kris Bubic’s resurgence, Cade Horton’s consistency, Hunter Brown’s bounce-back potential, and Tarik Skubal’s dominance all provide clear angles worth backing.
Whether you’re locking in a parlay or single bets, stay alert for late scratches and bullpen usage updates, and get your wagers in before the lines move!
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
