MLB Best Bets for July 13: Two Parlays Are Better Than One
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Rainman M.
- July 13, 2025
Today’s Top Pick
- Reds ML (-222)
- Pirates-Twins 1st 5 – Under 5 (-113)
MLB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+173) at BetOnline
The sportsbooks have released their betting odds for this afternoon’s slate of baseball games, and four games, in particular, interest me as worth investing in/ Let’s take a look!
Colorado Rockies vs. Cincinnati Reds
Sunday, July 13, 2025 – 1:40 PM EDT at Great American Ball Park
Colorado’s Declining Starter
Austin Gomber starts for the Rockies today. Before his previous start, Gomber was pitching beyond himself. His last start, in which he allowed four earned runs in 4.2 innings in Boston, is representative of his decline to his usual bad self.
He has always been a pitcher who struggles to finish a given season with an ERA below 5.00. This was true even when he pitched for St. Louis.
There is not a pitch in his arsenal that he can rely on to any meaningful extent. Each of the three pitches that he throws most often yields a slugging rate of .600 or higher.
Gomber vs. Reds Batters
Cincinnati’s lineup will encounter Gomber’s typically poor self, with whom it is already well-acquainted.
Collectively, Reds batters hit .297 and slug 568 against Gomber. Four different ones slug over .600 with him on the mound.
Takeaway
The Reds will score plenty of runs against Gomber and against Colorado’s 26th-ranked bullpen.
Colorado, which is annually one of the worst teams at scoring in road games, which ranks second-to-last in runs per game away from home, and which has failed to exceed three runs in any of its last five games, will fail to keep pace.
Parlay Leg 1: Reds ML (-222) at BetOnline
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Minnesota Twins
Sunday, July 13, 2025 – 2:10 PM EDT at Target Field
Respecting Mitch Keller
Pittsburgh starts Mitch Keller today, someone who does not get much love because he plays for a bad team.
I am not saying that he is elite — he got slammed by the Yankees, for example — but he is eminently reliable against sub-elite teams, which makes him worth trusting today.
His form is also great: he enters today’s game having allowed two earned runs or fewer in each of his last five starts. As his most recent games show, he is consistently solid against teams like the Mets and Cardinals, who rank around or slightly above average in run production. The Twins rank 20th in runs per game.
Keller vs. Twins Batters
What makes Keller particularly reliable today is his strong track record against Minnesota’s batters. Collectively, they bat .182 and slug .227 against Keller. They have more strikeouts than hits with him on the mound.
Pittsburgh’s Impoverished Lineup
One must generally expect the Pirates to fail to score on the road: they rank dead last in road runs per game. Their outlook today is especially negative against today’s Twins starter, Simeon Woods Richardson, who is pitching excellently, as he’s allowed a combined total of one run in his last three games.
One might say that Pittsburgh’s lineup had a good chance to succeed today on the condition that Woods Richardson was struggling, or if it matched up well against him. But neither condition applies. The Pirates rank dead last with a .338 slugging rate against his favorite pitches from righties. Woods Richardson will thus match Keller’s success.
As an additional play on the game, the freshness of Pittsburgh’s top relievers and the Minnesota offense’s daytime struggles — The Twins slug .385 in day games, compared to .414 in night games — entail that the Twins team total under is also worth investing in.
MLB Pick: Twins Team Total Under 4.5 (-123) at BetOnline
Parlay Leg 2: 1st 5 – Under 5 (-113) at BetOnline
The First Parlay
- Reds ML (-222)
- Pirates-Twins 1st 5 – Under 5 (-113)
MLB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+173) at BetOnline
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Athletics
Saturday, July 13, 2025 – 4:05 PM EDT at Sutter Health Park
Key Trend
Toronto is worth a full-game investment because it is primed to bounce back after its loss yesterday. The Blue Jays are 5-0 in their last five games that followed a loss, and they scored at least five runs in each of those five games.
Toronto’s Key Lineup Advantage
The Blue Jays face starter Jeffrey Springs, who is due for major regression.
Springs’ FIP (like ERA but factors out fielding) was well over 3.00 higher than his ERA in each of his last three starts. He has benefited from a low BABIP (batting average of balls in play) that belies the terrible rate at which he is yielding hard contact.
Toronto’s lineup is going to hit him hard and hit him well. The Blue Jays have already proven that they can thrive against this guy. Collectively, they bat .291 and slug .455 with him on the mound.
Berrios and Bullpen
Jose Berrios starts for Toronto today. His outlook is solid against an Athletics lineup that, collectively, hits .203 and slugs .275 against him.
Let-downs from their lineup is a large part of why the Athletics have lost the last four games that followed a win. Their bullpen is also clearly inferior, ranking second-to-last and 21 spots behind Toronto’s.
Parlay Leg 1: Blue Jays ML (-136) at BetOnline
Philadelphia Phillies vs. San Diego Padres
Sunday, July 13, 2025 – 4:10 PM EDT at Petco Park
Philadelphia’s Top-Notch Starter
Cristopher Sanchez starts for the Phillies today.
The Phillies will be eager to avoid heading into the All-Star Break having gotten swept. To win, they’ll absolutely need a strong start from Sanchez, because they can’t rely on their worn-down and subpar bullpen that is measurably inferior to San Diego’s.
Sanchez must be counted on to give them the solid start that they need. He has been a model of consistency, as he enters today’s game having allowed one run in each of his last four starts. More extensively, he has allowed two runs or fewer in each of his last eight starts.
Sanchez Will Best Pivetta
Sanchez’s outlook is particularly solid today against a San Diego lineup that ranks 25th with a .316 slugging rate against his pitches from lefties.
This awful statistic is remarkable because it was produced by San Diego facing pitchers who throw worse versions of those pitches than Sanchez does.
Whereas Sanchez will lock down the Padres, today’s San Diego starter Nick Pivetta will struggle against a Philadelphia lineup that collectively bats .283 and slugs .554 against him.
Parlay Leg 2: 1st 5 – Phillies ML (-135) at BetOnline
The Second Parlay
- Blue Jays ML (-136)
- 1st 5 – Phillies ML (-135)
MLB Pick: Two-Legged Parlay (+202) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
