MLB Best Bets for July 11: Rays to Burn Red Sox in Boston Friday
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LT Profits
- July 11, 2025
Top MLB Pick: Rays ML (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We resumed our winning ways Wednesday, going 2-1, leaving us at 61-40-3, 60.4% over our last Major League Baseball picks.
We return on Friday for a big 16-game slate of MLB betting matchups with every team in action, including a doubleheader. As usual, we have the three best bets that we feel have the most betting value at the currently posted MLB odds.
These MLB Best Bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with our three selections for Friday consisting of two sides and one total. And as always, we have searched for the best betting odds available across the top-rated sportsbooks for each of our selections.
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox
Friday, July 11, 2025 – 07:10 PM EDT at Fenway Park
We see a relatively large pitching mismatch in Boston from start to finish on Friday. Thus, we are backing the tandem of Drew Rasmussen and Joe Boyle of the visiting Rays as small favorites when they take on Hunter Dobbins and the Red Sox.
Rasmussen Opens, Boyle Shuts the Door for Tampa
The 29-year-old Rasmussen appeared to be on the path to a great Major League career, but his progress has been curtailed by three elbow surgeries. Nonetheless, he has pitched brilliantly this season despite a modest 7-5 record, as he has a stellar 2.82 ERA and 3.52 xFIP through 89.1 innings.
Those innings are the issue, though, as the Rays would like to cap him at around 150 innings, so for the time being they are using him as a quasi-opener.
The expectation is for Drew to go two or three innings tonight before bringing in Boyle as the bulk reliever. Well, it has been so far, so good for Joe, as he did not allow an earned run in five innings behind Rasmussen on Sunday. And that was after not allowing an earned run in five innings as a starter in his only other Major League appearance this season back in April.
That perfect 0.00 ERA through 10 innings in the big leagues this year is accompanied by a nice 2.97 xFIP and 14 strikeouts. That translates to a great strikeout of 12.60/9, and he also has an amazing soft contact rate of 31.6% thus far. And if Boyle needs relief, the Tampa Bay bullpen ranks sixth in the Major Leagues in xFIP at 3.90 and seventh in cumulative strikeout rate at 9.26/9.
Dobbins Returns, But Underlying Numbers Raise Flags
Dobbins has been activated from the injured list after dealing with an elbow injury of his own following a minor-league rehab start on Saturday. He is 4-1 for the Red Sox this season, but that mark is probably undeserved, as it comes with a mediocre 4.10 ERA and a mostly aligned 4.05 xFIP.
While those figures are not terrible, he does have some disturbing peripherals:
- Hunter has a weak K/BB ratio of 6.52/2.43 per nine innings
- His poor hard-contact rate of 35.3% takes on added significance since the low strikeout total means more contact overall.
- He is throwing his fastball 40.6% of the time, and while the velocity is good at 95.5 MPH, the fastball Stuff+ is an abnormally low 84 for such velocity, an indication of a lack of movement.
Now, he must deal with a Rays’ offense that ranks sixth in the majors in both wRC+ against right-handed pitchers at 112 and in OPS against them at .754.
The Pick
In the end, we think that the Tampa Bay pitching is in good hands here with Rasmussen, Boyle and the backend of the bullpen (if needed). Meanwhile, we are not fans of Dobbins and his low fastball Stuff+ facing a good offense, so bet on the Rays as short chalk in Beantown on Friday.
Predicted Score: Rays 5 –Red Sox 3
MLB Pick: Rays ML (-108) at Heritage Sports
Washington Nationals vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Friday, July 11, 2025 – 08:10 PM EDT at American Family Field
We see a lower-scoring game than the posted total indicates in American Family Field on Friday. We are betting on the Under when Quinn Priester and the Brewers host Mitchell Parker and the Nationals.
Quietly Effective, Priester Aims to Bounce Back Strong
Priester has mostly been effective this season in his 16 appearances, including 12 starts, going 6-2 with a 3.59 ERA and a higher but still good 3.88 xFIP through 82.2 innings. We are looking for a bounce-back effort tonight after allowing five runs (four earned) in 4.2 innings in Miami on the 4th of July, snapping an impressive streak of allowing three earned runs or less in 10 straight outings.
Quinn may have a mediocre strikeout rate of 7.08/9, but he has offset that with an elite-level groundball rate of 57.7% that would rank fifth best in the majors had he pitched the 93 innings needed to qualify.
And even his high-ish walk rate of 3.27/9 is deceiving, as that rate stood at an ugly 5.67/9 through his first seven appearances. He has dramatically lowered that figure by posting a walk rate of 1.64/9 since then. Moreover, the Milwaukee bullpen has also shown marked improvement following a shaky start, now moving up to 10th in the majors in xFIP at 3.96. The unit has done that by ranking third in xFIP (3.42) and second in ERA (2.83) since June 1st.
Lefty Parker Catches Brewers in Their Weakest Split
The southpaw Parker does not have great frontline stats, as he is 5-9 with a 4.72 ERA and 4.97 xFIP through 18 starts covering 97.1 innings. With that said, there are some signs of positive regression, and he does benefit by facing an offense that has struggled with lefties here at home in Milwaukee.
For starters, just like Priester, Mitchell has improved his control since earlier in the season. Breaking down his 3.42/9 walk rate, it stood at 4.32/9 over his first nine starts, but it sits at a much better 2.47 in the last nine starts. He also owns a solid Location+ of 102 overall, and he has been unlucky with just a 64.1% strand rate.
But perhaps most importantly, he puts the Brewers at a horrible offensive split, as they have a wRC+ of 77 (or 23% below average) against left-handed pitchers at home this season, as well as a puny OPS of .612 in that circumstance!
The Pick
In summary, we think Priester is a bit underrated right now and has an improving bullpen supporting him, while Parker has a few positive indicators that may come through against a poor offense vs. lefties. Therefore, we are going Under the posted total in Milwaukee in this spot.
Predicted Score: Brewers 4 – Nationals 2
MLB Pick: Nationals/Brewers Under 8.5 (-110) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Texas Rangers vs. Houston Astros
Friday, July 11, 2025 – 08:10 PM EDT at Daikin Park
We do not think that Lance McCullers of the Astros has done enough to merit this much favoritism, so we are opting for the value in Houston Friday by supporting Jack Leiter and the Rangers as underdogs.
Don’t Let One Gem Fool You—McCullers Still a Wild Card
McCullers comes in at 2-3 through nine starts with an awful 5.82 ERA, and while his xFIP is better, it is still not very good at 4.59. Yes, seemingly out of nowhere, he tossed a gem against the Dodgers last time out, allowing one run and four hits in six innings. But he remains too inconsistent to be trusted, as that outing came after allowing 12 earned runs in 8.1 innings in his prior two starts. So, we are basically daring him to match that last effort as a favorite here!
Lance has seen a huge spike in his walks this season, with that rate at a career-worst 5.59/9, and he even pitched around four walks in his good last start. That extra traffic coincides with one of the worst soft/hard contact ratios in baseball at a ghastly 18.2% / 41.8%, which not surprisingly has resulted in a high home run rate allowed of 1.86/9.
The sharp drop in fastball velocity this season to 91.9 MPH does not inspire confidence either, especially as a favorite.
Granted, he is facing a Texas offense ranked 25th in the league in wRC+ against right-handed pitching at 93. However, that mark has been steadily rising over the last six weeks or so, standing at a good 106 (6% above average) since June 1st.
Underdog Leiter Brings Heat—and Underrated Value
Leiter may not have eye-popping numbers with a 4-6 record, 4.32 ERA and 4.70 xFIP, but he still has the better ERA in this matchup and an aligning xFIP with the benefit of carrying an underdog price. Moreover, he has pitched much better lately while allowing three runs or less in eight of his last 10 starts and he has some strong metrics.
Jack grades out nicely on Stuff+ at 110 overall, led by a blazing 97.4 MPH fastball that grades out at a lofty 122. Moreover, he has three other pitches in his vast six-pitch arsenal that are graded 105 or higher! He also has a double-digit swinging strike rate of 10.2% that points to an expected positive regression to his 7.56/9 strikeout rate.
Furthermore, once Leiter leaves, the Texas bullpen is fifth in the majors in ERA at 3.41, and that unit has a sparkling 2.90 ERA since June 1st.
The Pick
The bottom line here is that McCullers is simply not worthy of being a decided favorite with the way he has pitched this season.
With Leiter showing metrics indicating positive regression expected to his frontline numbers and the Texas bullpen being solid all year, bet on the Rangers as road underdogs at Daikin Park.
Predicted Score: Rangers 4 – Astros 3
MLB Pick: Rangers ML (+118) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
