MLB Best Bets for July 1: Nationals to Capitalize vs. Tigers in DC
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LT Profits
- July 1, 2025
Top MLB Pick: Nationals ML (+135) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We went only 1-2 on Friday, although the winner being at odds of +143 minimized the damage and we are still 54-33-2 over our last 89 Major League Baseball picks. We now return on Tuesday to a full 15-game slate of MLB betting matchups with every team in action, and we have the three best bets that we feel have the most betting value at the currently posted MLB odds.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with our three selections for Tuesday consisting of two underdog sides and one total. And as always, we have searched for the best odds available at the top sportsbooks.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Tuesday, July 01, 2025 – 06:40 PM EDT at PNC Park
Even with perhaps the best pitcher in baseball in Paul Skenes on the mound for the Pirates on Tuesday, Pittsburgh’s hot offense has us going Over the deflated total facing Andre Pallante and the Cardinals.
Lots of Hard Contact
We were high on Pallante earlier this season due to his propensity to induce groundballs, and he does indeed rank second in the Major Leagues with his 63.3% groundball rate. However, he remains only 5-4 with a 4.43 ERA, and we have soured a bit on him due to his hard contact allowed with minimal strikeouts.
To wit, Andre has a modest K/BB ratio of 6.18/2.99 per nine innings. Now, we get that the low strikeout rate is partly by design due to generating so many groundballs, but that has been offset this season by a career-high hard contact rate of 32.0%. That takes on added significance for a non-strikeout pitcher, as that high rate is over much more contact. Also, his rather unflattering overall Stuff+ of 94 does not help matters.
He now must take on a suddenly hot Pirates offense that scored 9, 9 and 12 runs respectively while sweeping a three-game series over the Mets this past weekend and then followed up with seven runs in the series opener here last night! This sizzling streak has helped raise Pittsburgh’s wRC+ vs. right-handers to 107 for the season here at PNC Park.
May Not Need to Allow Much
Granted, Skenes is fourth in the Major Leagues in ERA at 2.12, tied for fourth in Pitching WAR at 3.4 and first among qualified starters in average fastball velocity at 98.4 MPH. However, if the Pittsburgh offense stays hot against Pallante, Skenes may not need to allow more than one or two runs to push this game Over this low posted total.
As great as Paul has been, he has had only three starts out of 17 where he did not allow any runs, and he comes off one of his worst starts of the year, where he allowed four earned runs in four innings in Milwaukee last Wednesday. He is also facing a Top 10 offense in wRC+ vs. right-handers this season, with the Cardinals ranking ninth at 108.
In the end, with this total so low, the Pirates may be capable of reaching it on their own anyway given their raging offensive form, so let’s go Over the total in Pittsburgh Tuesday.
Predicted Score: Pirates 6 – Cardinals 3
MLB Pick: Cardinals/Pirates Over 7 (-123) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Detroit Tigers vs. Washington Nationals
Tuesday, July 01, 2025 – 06:45 PM EDT at Nationals Park
We are calling for an upset in our nation’s capital and are thus backing Trevor Williams and the Nationals hosting Jack Flaherty and the Tigers in Washington, DC on Tuesday.
Regression Catching Up
We predicted a short time ago that Flaherty was in line for some negative reaction as he was carrying a good ERA at the time with his metrics way down from his career year last season. Well, that regression has indeed hit, as he has allowed 18 earned runs in 13 innings over his last three starts with terrible command while walking 12 batters, ballooning the once-good ERA to its current 4.80!
Jack is coming off a 2024 season where he finished 13-7 with a 3.17 ERA and an outstanding 3.00 xFIP, but he has simply not been the same pitcher this year, as at 5-9, he has already surpassed his loss-total from last season. And this is while pitching for a good Detroit team that leads the AL Central at 53-32.
Granted, Flaherty still has a very good strikeout rate of 10.67/9, but his walk rate has gone up to 3.74/9 from 2.11/9 last year, and his groundball rate is at a career-low 35.0%. Furthermore, his alarming hard contact rate of 35.3% is higher than the weak groundball rate, a combination you never like to see. As you might expect, this has resulted in allowing home runs at a high rate of 1.71/9, which is the seventh worst in the Major Leagues.
Extreme Bad Luck
Now, Williams is 3-9 with a 5.65 ERA, but he has actually not pitched nearly that badly. He has been a victim of poor Luck Stats with a high .336 BABIP allowed and a low strand rate of 63.0%, and his xFIP is more than a full run lower than the ERA at 4.39. Furthermore, he has allowed exactly two earned runs in each of his last three starts here in Nationals Park.
Trevor is not a power pitcher by any means with just an 87.7 MPH fastball, but he has increased the usage of his slider to 36.6% this season, making it his second most frequent pitch. That has been a wise choice with the pitch rating 103 in Stuff+, easily his highest rated pitch. This has helped to drastically lower Williams’ hard-contact rate this year to a good 26.2% from 31.1% last season.
In the end, this is mainly a play against a fading Flaherty at a big price, but we also think the ERA for Williams will improve as his Luck Stats regress. Bet on the Nationals as decided home underdogs Tuesday.
Predicted Score: Nationals 6 – Tigers 4
MLB Pick: Nationals ML (+135) at BetOnline
Houston Astros vs. Colorado Rockies
Tuesday, July 01, 2025 – 08:40 PM EDT at Coors Field
It is not very often that we support the Under in the altitude of Coors Field, but we are doing just that at a seemingly inflated total Tuesday night when Colton Gordon and the Astros visit Chase Dollander and the Rockies.
Rookie in Good Form
The rookie southpaw Gordon has been impressive during his first-ever taste of the Major Leagues, going 3-1 through eight starts covering 40.2 innings with a 3.98 ERA and an excellent 3.47 xFIP. He has also been amazingly consistent, allowing three runs or less in seven of his eight starts and a manageable four runs in the other one. He is coming off one of his best starts this season, tossing five scoreless innings against a hot Phillies team.
Colton has shown great command for someone so young, with an outstanding K/BB ratio of 8.41/1.11 per nine innings, in fact issuing either one or no walks in each of his last seven outings. He is not a particularly hard thrower with his fastball averaging 91.3 MPH, but he makes up for it with an excellent biting slider with a lofty 115 rating on Stuff+ that is his second most frequent pitch at 33.0% of the time.
Gordon has the support of a very good Houston bullpen that ranks second in the majors in xFIP at 3.68, third in ERA at 3.31 and first in strikeout rate at 10.72/9. It also always helps to face a Colorado offense that is dead last in the majors in wRC+ vs. left-handed pitchers at a pitiful 62.
Stuff+ Belies Record
Fellow rookie Dollander was highly regarded entering this season, but his frontline stats have been disappointing at 2-8 with a bloated 6.06 ERA. However, there is still reason for hope, as his xFIP is noticeably better at 4.70 and he has been much better recently while allowing three earned runs or less in six of his last seven starts. This includes limiting the powerful Dodgers to just three runs and three hits in 5.2 innings here at Coors in his last start.
Also, Chase grades out quite nicely on Stuff+, where his overall rating of 102 belies the high ERA. He has excellent pop on his blazing fastball that is averaging 97.6 MPH but also adds a wide arsenal, as he has a total of six different pitches. And besides the fastball, three of his secondary pitches rate above 100 on Stuff+, including a great cutter (122) and curveball (120).
He is facing a Houston offense that has not been as potent against right-handers as in past years, as while the Astros are right at the average of 100 in wRC+ against them, that has come with just a 22nd ranking in OPS at .708.
So, what we have here is two rookie pitchers with great potential, a Rockies’ offense that has been abysmal against southpaws and a Houston offense that has had less pop than usual vs. righties. We think all that is enough to overcome playing in Colorado, so we are betting on the Under with this very high total.
Predicted Score: Astros 6 – Rockies 3
MLB Pick: Astros/Rockies Under 11.5 (-125) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
