MLB Best Bets for August 29: Scarcity of Scoring Expected in Flushing Friday
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LT Profits
- August 29, 2025
We nailed the 3-0 sweep on Wednesday, including two underdog wins with the Giants and Athletics. This brings us to a nice 85-66-4 over our last 155 Major League Baseball picks with no favorites higher than the -130s. We now return on Friday for another full 15-game slate of MLB betting matchups with all 30 teams in action, and as usual, we have the three best bets that we feel have the most betting value at the currently posted MLB odds.
As always, our picks are powered by our proprietary model, with Friday’s card featuring two moderate favorites and one total, all at the best available odds from top sportsbooks.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Friday, August 29, 2025 – 7:07 PM EDT at Rogers Centre
There is a nice interleague battle of first-place teams north of the border Friday night. And we are backing Shane Bieber and the Blue Jays at home when they host Freddy Peralta and the Brewers.
Bieber Expected to Build on Dominant Return
Bieber had Tommy John surgery last April, but he looked great during his rehab in the minors 15 months later, and the 2020 Cy Young Award winner looked like his old self in his return to the majors last Friday. In fact, he was sensational in his Blue Jays debut after being acquired at the trade deadline, allowing one run on a solo homer on just two hits with nine strikeouts and not a single walk while being allowed to go six innings, which is also an encouraging sign.
Shane was never a hard thrower, but his 92.7 MPH fastball average in his first start back was nicely up from the 91.3 MPH it averaged in his last healthy season in 2023. Bieber’s forte was always having pinpoint control of every pitch in his vast five-pitch arsenal, and that was in full display last week. He threw all five of his pitches at least 12.5% of the time, earning a supreme Location+ of 124 in the walk-less effort.
It does not appear that the Jays have put any limitations on Bieber as they try to maintain their 3.5-game lead in the AL East, so we are looking for another great effort tonight.
Peralta High Walk Rate Driving Up His xFIP
Now, Peralta is undoubtedly having a great season at 15-5 with a 2.68 ERA that ranks seventh-best in the Major Leagues. However, this is a rare case where we think his mound opponent is the better pitcher, and maybe even by a considerable margin, based on Bieber’s return start. And besides, Peralta has a disturbing 4.04 xFIP that belies the ERA,
It is not too difficult to see why the xFIP is nearly 1.5 runs higher than the ERA, as Freddy’s walk issues that have prevented him from achieving the elite status many expected early in his career remain intact. That walk rate sits at a bloated 3.47/9, and he has been lucky to pitch around all that extra traffic by scoring highly in the Luck Stats, with a low .245 BABIP allowed and a high 84.8% strand rate.
That luck may not continue tonight against a Toronto offense that ranks fifth in the majors in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching at 113, a figure that rises to 119 here in Toronto.
As much as we respect Peralta with walk issues aside, we just cannot pass up a chance to bet on Bieber at a reasonable price at home, as he should only get better. Bet on the Blue Jays.
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets
Friday, August 29, 2025 – 7:10 PM ET at Citi Field
We feel that runs will be hard to come by in Flushing, NY, on Friday, so we are betting on the Under when Jonah Tong makes his Major League debut for the Mets when they host Eury Perez and the Marlins.
Mets’ Top Prospect Jonah Tong Makes His MLB Debut
Tong is currently rated the top pitching prospect in the Mets organization, and he really had nothing left to prove while being one of the best pitchers in all of minor league baseball this season. He went 10-5 with a fantastic 1.43 ERA and 2.16 xFIP through 22 minor-league starts covering 113.2 innings with an amazing strikeout rate of 14.17/9, prompting the Mets to promote him while trying to hold on to the final wild card spot in the National League.
Jonah averaged 95.7 MPH on his fastball this season, but he also threw his change-up with great separation at 85.4 MPH 31.5% of the time. Not only did that mix produce an outstanding swinging strike rate of 17.1%, but it also induced an excellent 52.9% groundball rate. Those of you who follow us know that we love pitchers that combine good strikeout and groundball rates, so we love Tong’s profile, coming up with him being great in both.
Marlins’ Perez Finally Settling Into Form
Perez came up to the majors with great hype in 2023, and he did indeed flash some brilliance despite his 5-6 record, as it came with a 3.15 ERA through 91.1 innings with an excellent strikeout rate of 10.64/9. However, he injured his elbow and had Tommy John surgery, forcing him to miss all last season.
Eury made his return to the majors this year, and after a slow start, he has rounded into form as of late. His overall numbers are good as he is 6-3 for a team that is eight games under .500 with a 3.44 ERA and an 8.92/9 strikeout rate. However, he has been better than that while allowing two earned runs or less in eight of his 10 starts since July 1st!
He is 6-1 with a 2.63 ERA during this span, with the strikeout rate back up over one batter per inning at 9.22/9. Moreover, his swinging strike rate over those last 10 starts of 14.7% points to a potential rise in the already good K-Rate.
With Perez probably in the best form of his career at the youthful age of 22 and Tong coming up as one of the best pitching prospects in baseball, we are going Under this total in Citi Field.
Texas Rangers vs. Athletics
Friday, August 29, 2025 – 10:05 PM EDT at Sutter Health Park
Without much fanfare, the Athletics have an outside chance to finish with a .500 record this season with a strong finish, far exceeding preseason forecasts. We are supporting those A’s at home on Friday with Jeffrey Springs on the bump when they host Jack Leiter and the Rangers.
Springs Consistently Good, Rangers Can’t Hit Lefties
Springs has a winning 10-8 record, and while he has only a 4.15 ERA and 4.65 xFIP overall through 27 appearances, those numbers do not tell the whole story. That is because he did not enter the starting rotation on a permanent basis until June 15th, and he has been consistently good in this role ever since.
Jeffrey is 5-3 in 13 starts since re-entering the rotation with a better 3.64 ERA. He allowed three earned runs or less in 10 of those 13 starts, in fact allowing two earned runs or less in nine of them! He has drastically slashed his walk rate during this time to 1.88/9 while rating 101 on Location+, a major improvement over his season-long walk rate of 2.85/9, while also outperforming his overall 98 on Location+.
The southpaw now gets a chance to continue that recent sharp form against a Texas offense ranked 21st in wRC+ vs. left-handed pitchers at 83 (or 17% below average).
Leiter Walk Issues Hurt vs. Underrated Offense
Now, Leiter has good frontline numbers at 8-7 with a 3.81 ERA and a good strikeout rate of 8.64/9. And he certainly throws gas with his fastball, averaging 97.3 MPH. However, his walks have been an issue, resulting in his xFIP being nearly a full run higher than the ERA at 4.77.
In fact, the ugly walk rate of 4.44/9 is the third highest in the Major Leagues among pitchers with at least 100 innings pitched. He also has a weak soft/hard contact ratio of 15.4%/36.6%, with much of that hard contact being in the air, given his low 36.0% groundball rate. However, he has been lucky with his HR/FB ratio in single digits at 9.3%, a benefit he does not figure to receive at hitter-friendly Sutter Health Park. Jack has also lucked out with a below-average .270 BABIP.
That luck may run out against a young A’s offense that has been surprisingly good against right-handers this year, with a wRC+ of 104 overall, a figure that has risen to 106 in August.
We see this as a matchup of two pitchers with opposite regressions expected in their ERAs, with Springs already showing improvement and Leiter allowing too much hard air contact. Bet the A’s at home.
More Picks from Our Experts
Don’t miss Donnie RightSide’s insight into today’s MLB slate below. And be sure to visit our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice!
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