MLB Best Bets for August 27: Royals to Earn Their Crowns in Chicago
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LT Profits
- August 27, 2025
We had another winning night on Wednesday by going 2-1, bringing us to a nice 82-66-4 over our last 152 Major League Baseball picks without betting on any favorites higher than the -130s. We now return on Wednesday to another full 15-game slate of MLB betting matchups with every team in action, and again we have the three best bets that we feel have the most betting value at the currently posted MLB odds.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, and our three selections for Wednesday are all sides consisting of one favorite and two underdogs. We also searched for the best available odds at the top sportsbooks for each of our selections.
Kansas City Royals vs. Chicago White Sox
Wednesday, August 27, 2025 – 7:40 PM EDT at Rate Field
We give the visiting team a bigger edge in the Windy City on Wednesday than this posted line indicates, so we are supporting Ryen Bergert and the Royals when they visit Aaron Civale and the White Sox.
Bergert Still Solid Since Trade, Faces Bad Offense
The Royals are hanging around in the playoff race, currently three games out of the wild card spot, and their starter Bergert has continued his fine season since being acquired from the Padres at the trade deadline. His record may be just 1-1 in 15 total games combined, but he is carrying a great 2.79 ERA and a nice strikeout rate of 8.69/9.
Best of all, nothing has changed in his four starts for Kansas City since the trade, as he has allowed two runs or less in all four of them while posting a 2.82 ERA and 8.87/9 K-Rate, nicely aligning with his San Diego numbers. In fact, he has yet to allow more than three runs in any appearance this year at either of his two stops! The only downside is he has yet to reach six innings, but that gets alleviated by the Royals’ bullpen ranking seventh in ERA at 3.68.
Ryan also gets to face a White Sox offense still ranked 28th out of 30 MLB teams in wRC+ vs. right-handed pitchers at just 86 (or 14% below average).
Civale Getting Hit Hard, Has No Pen Support
Granted, the White Sox have been playing better lately, but they still have the worst record in the American League by a wide margin at 48-84, and we are not at all high on Civale. He was well regarded when he first came up with Cleveland in 2019, but he has been erratic throughout his career and is now having his worst season after turning 30 years old.
He comes in at 3-8 with a bloated 5.02 ERA and 4.92 xFIP through 17 starts, and he has been literally hit hard, as in owning a hard contact rate of 31.7% that is dangerously close to his poor groundball rate of 33.7%. He also has a weak K/BB ratio of 7.47/3.42 per nine innings, with that walk rate being a career worst, and he is not missing many bats with a measly 8.5% swinging strike rate.
To make matters worse, he cannot count on much support from a Sox bullpen ranked 28th in xFIP at 4.54.
In the end, we give Kansas City the pitching edge from start to finish here, combining starters and bullpens. Add in the suspect White Sox offense and bet on the Royals as reasonable favorites.
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants
Wednesday, August 27, 2025 – 9:45 PM EDT at Oracle Park
We see good underdog value in the home team Wednesday night, so we are betting on southpaw newcomer Carson Whisenhunt and the Giants when they host Colin Rea and the Cubs in San Francisco.
Whisenhunt Well Regarded, Pitching Better Since Debut
Whisenhunt may not have special frontline numbers at 1-1 with a 4.91 ERA and 5.34 xFIP, but he remains a nice prospect after posting double-digit strikeout rates at every minor league stop. Besides, the unsightly ERA and xFIP are over only four starts and 18.1 innings, and more importantly, the ERA keeps dropping with every outing.
You see, Carson allowed four earned runs in five innings in his first Major League start on July 28th, but he has since allowed three runs or less in three straight outings. This includes allowing two runs and just four hits against the red-hot Brewers in Milwaukee on Friday. And while we acknowledge that his K-rate of 6.38/9 in the big leagues pales in comparison to his minor league numbers, his double-digit swinging strike rate of 10.7% suggests potential for positive regression.
It also helps to have the support of a great Giants’ bullpen ranked second in the majors in both ERA at 3.26 and in xFIP at 3.91. Moreover, while the Cubs have a great offense overall, they have had a hiccup vs. lefties during August with a poor wRC+ of 79 against them this month.
Rea Has Weak Peripherals, Giants’ Offense Good Lately
Rea has managed to win ten games at 10-5, but his ERA is barely below 4.00 at 3.96, and his peripherals do not seem to support even that figure. In other words, he does not appear to be as good as his record, and he has benefited from good run support. As already mentioned, he may not get that run support this evening.
Colin has a weak K/BB ratio of 6.57/2.69 per nine innings, with the low K-Rate validated by just an 8.2% swinging strike rate and the command issues validated by a sub-par Location+ of 94. And it is not as if he makes up for that bad command ratio with groundballs, as that rate is an ordinary 39.0%. Moreover, his overall Stuff+ of 95 simply does not line up with the W/L record.
And while the Cubs have struggled with lefties this month, the Giants have hit well vs. righties in August with a wRC+ of 109.
So, with opposite regressions expected for the starting pitchers and the offenses trending in opposite directions against the handedness faced tonight, bet on the Giants as home underdogs.
Detroit Tigers vs. The Athletics
Wednesday, August 27, 2025 – 10:05 PM EDT at Sutter Health Park
It looks like Wednesday may be the night to bet home underdogs from Northern California, as we are backing another one in the Athletics with Luis Morales on the mound, hosting Casey Mize and the Tigers in Sacramento.
Morales Is a Top Prospect Yet To Disappoint
Morales entered this season as one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball, and he has certainly shown why since his recall by the Athletics on August 1st. After allowing one run in two relief innings in his initial appearance, he was inserted into the starting rotation and has since allowed a total of two runs and only seven hits over 13.2 innings with 15 strikeouts!
He is coming off his best start yet against the Mariners, allowing one run (on a solo homer) and two hits in six innings with six strikeouts and not a single walk on Friday. Luis throws gas with a fastball averaging 97.1 MPH thus far, and he combines that with what has been a devastating slider with late break already rated an amazing 137 on Stuff+.
The only issue for Morales in his first few Major League appearances and throughout the minors was his walks, but if he maintains the command he had while not walking anyone last out, he has a chance to prosper in the big leagues.
Is Mize Overvalued vs. Underrated Offense?
Now, we do respect that Mize is having a breakout season with a 12-4 record and a 3.68 ERA. However, we do question him being a decided favorite on the road here with a potential phenom as his mound opponent and facing an underrated offense. And it is not as if Mize does not have flaws, as indicated by his xFIP of 4.09 being noticeably higher than his ERA.
Casey has not recorded a Quality Start in any of his last three efforts, and while he was lucky to escape with allowing three runs in 5.2 innings last time out, he did so while surrendering nine hits and not recording a single strikeout. Speaking of strikeouts, that rate is a mediocre 7.90/9 overall, and his soft-contact rate of 13.1% is way down from 14.9% last season.
He is facing a young A’s offense that has been somewhat surprisingly good against right-handers this year with a wRC+ of 103 overall, a figure that has gone up a few ticks to 105 in August.
While we generally like Mize overall, his recent form is lacking, while we expect Morales to only get better as his starts pile up. We are betting on the underdog value with the Athletics at home.
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