MLB Best Bets for August 20: Ginn Grades Out Straight A’s in Minnesota
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LT Profits
- August 20, 2025
We are still a profitable 76-63-4 over our last 143 Major League Baseball picks despite going 1-2 on Tuesday, without betting any favorites higher than the -130s. We are back on Wednesday for a 14-game slate of MLB betting matchups, and as usual, we have the three best bets that we feel have the most betting value at the currently posted MLB odds.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with our three selections for Wednesday consisting of one small underdog side, one Over and one Under. We have also searched for the best available MLB odds at the top sportsbooks for each of our selections.
New York Mets vs. Washington Nationals
Wednesday, August 20, 2025 – 6:45 PM EDT at Nationals Park
We feel that this matchup in our nation’s capital is one of two pitchers with deceptive ERAs. Therefore, we are looking for regression and are backing the Over when Kodai Senga and the Mets visit Brad Lord and the Nationals.
Senga’s Walk Issues Make Him Vulnerable
Senga has excellent frontline numbers at 7-4 with a spiffy 2.35 ERA over 19 starts covering 99.2 innings. Still, that is over less than 100 innings after all, as he had a belated season debut and then had a mid-season stint on the injured list, and we see several warning signs pointing to negative regression as his innings pile up.
For starters, consider that his xFIP is nearly two full runs higher than his ERA at 4.33, the highest mark of his professional career, including his years in Japan. The catalyst for that unsightly xFIP is a bloated walk rate of 4.33/9, which is also a career high, and while he has a good strikeout rate of 8.58/9, that is still a career low after averaging more than one strikeout per inning every season prior to this one.
It may be easy to forget that Kodai is 32 years old due to his years overseas prior to entering the Major Leagues in 2023, and his fastball velocity of 94.6 MPH is also a career low. Add a below-average Stuff+ of 94 overall, and we just don’t see Senga maintaining his current ERA.
Nationals’ Bullpen Leaves Lord Exposed
Lord has made 40 appearances this season, with 29 in relief plus 11 starts, and nobody could have expected his results to this point. Yes, he has a 3-6 record, but that comes with a 3.26 ERA and 3.75 xFIP for a guy who was not at all a highly regarded prospect. But, like Senga, we have our doubts about Lord being able to keep this up.
Brad has an ordinary K/BB ratio of 7.22/2.87 per nine innings, and we don’t see that improving against a disciplined Mets’ lineup. That unit is in the bottom third of the league in strikeout rate against right-handers at 21.2% and is also sixth in walk rate against them at 9.3%. Furthermore, Lord does not grade out well in Stuff+ at just 88 overall.
He must now deal with a New York lineup that is tied for second in the league in wRC+ against righties at 115, and he cannot rely on any support from a Nats’ bullpen ranked dead last in both ERA (5.82) and xFIP (4.65).
In a nutshell, Senga’s peripherals do not support his sub-3.00 ERA, and we are not convinced that Lord’s ERA is “real” either given the low Stuff+. We are betting the Over in Washington.
Predicted Score: Mets 6 – Nationals 5
Athletics vs. Minnesota Twins
Wednesday, August 20, 2025 – 7:40 EDT at Target Field
We are forecasting a minor upset in Minnesota on Wednesday, so we are backing J.T. Ginn and the Athletics as small underdogs when they visit Bailer Ober and the Twins.
Ginn Yet to Have Bad Start on Road
Ginn may not have the greatest overall numbers at 2-5 with a 5.04 ERA over 16 appearances, including nine starts. However, not only is his xFIP much better, but it is quite good at 3.45. Moreover, he has one of the most severe home/away splits you will ever see, as he is much more aggressive pounding the strike zone on the road while being more tentative at home, pitching in a minor league hitters’ paradise in Sutter Health Park in Sacramento.
To wit, J.T. has a 6.75 ERA, 4.94 xFIP, and a walk rate of 4.18/9 at home. He has been beastly on the road, however, posting a 3.29 ERA, a better 2.29 xFIP, and an excellent walk rate of 1.65/9. He has now made six starts on the road and has yet to allow more than three earned runs in any of them! Moreover, his strikeouts have been there regardless of the venue with a nice overall rate of 9.92/9, backed by an 11.0% swinging strike rate.
He is facing a Minnesota team that threw up the red flag at the trade deadline and owns a wRC+ against righties of 89 (11% below average) this month of August.
Ober’s Velocity is Way Down
Ober was a serviceable Major League pitcher over his first four years, but this fifth season has been a disaster as he is 4-7 with a 5.15 ERA and a relatively closely aligned 4.85 xFIP. And while he spent some time on the injured list, those ugly numbers are still over 20 starts covering 108.1 innings.
Sadly, the decline for Bailey is validated by a career low in fastball velocity at a mere 90.5 MPH, with several starts where that average was below 90. As you would expect, that has resulted in a huge drop in his strikeout rate to 7.14/9 from 9.62/9 just last year. He also combines a low groundball rate of 28.9% with a hard contact rate of 30.1%, and the results have been predictable as his home-run rate allowed of 1.99/9 is the worst in baseball among pitchers with 100 innings.
He now faces an underrated young A’s lineup that is up to 10th in wRC+ vs. righties at 106.
We can easily make a case here for the wrong team being favored, given Ober’s struggles and Ginn pitching so much better away from Sacramento. Back the Athletics at an underdog price.
Predicted Score: Athletics 6 – Twins 4
San Francisco Giants vs. San Diego Padres
Wednesday, August 20, 2025 – 9:40 PM EDT at PETCO Park
We are not expecting too many runs to be scored in Petco Park on Wednesday, so we are supporting the under when JP Sears and the Padres host Landen Roupp and the Giants.
Sears Facing Lesser Offense Than in Pads Debut
The Padres acquired Sears from the Athletics at the trade deadline, and he was roughed up in his debut for San Diego, allowing five runs on 10 hits in five innings in Arizona. That was against a very good Diamondbacks offense, though, and he is facing a less formidable foe this evening. More importantly, we thought he made nice strides toward the end of his time with the A’s, and we expect him to resume that progress tonight.
JP does not have good frontline numbers at a combined 7-10 with a 5.12 ERA and 4.75 xFIP, but he was heading in the right direction with the A’s thanks to increasing the usage of his slider. He allowed three runs or less in six of his last seven starts before debuting for the Padres, thanks to the slider becoming his second most frequent pitch at 34.7% of the time, a pitch that carries a lofty 124 rating on Stuff+.
Now the southpaw gets a second chance to put that on display for San Diego, and he should have better results facing a San Francisco offense ranked second to last in the majors in wRC+ vs. lefties at a paltry 75.
Roupp Poised to Improve in Second Start Back
Roupp came off a three-week stint on the injured list to face the Rays on Friday, and he was promptly roughed up for five runs in three innings. The news was not all bad, however, as he did have five strikeouts in those three frames, and his fastball velocity of 93.7 MPH was a season high. Additionally, his sinker, cutter, and curveball all graded above 100 on Stuff+ during his return, so it seems the rest during the injury stint at least did his arm some good.
And even with that stinker, Landen is still 7-6 with a 3.45 ERA for the season, with a good strikeout rate of 8.63/9 and groundball rate of 45.7%. He also has a great soft/hard contact ratio of 15.5%/26.6%, and that ratio, plus all the groundballs, has resulted in a home run rate of just 0.78/9, a commendable 13th best in the league for pitchers with 100 innings.
Moreover, this is a matchup of the two lowest bullpen ERAs in baseball, with the Padres leading at 2.93 and the Giants second at 3.30.
The combination of positive regression expected for both starters from their last starts, two good bullpens, and the Giants’ offense being dreadful vs. lefties has us betting the Under in San Diego.
Predicted Score: Padres 4 – Giants 2
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
