MLB Best Bets for August 13: Expect Scarcity of Scoring in Cincinnati Wednesday
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LT Profits
- August 13, 2025
We are a profitable 73-60-4 over our last 137 Major League Baseball picks without betting any favorites higher than the -130s. We are back on Wednesday for another full 15-game slate of MLB betting matchups with every team in action. And as usual, we have the three best bets that we feel have the most betting value at the currently posted MLB odds.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, with all three of our selections for Wednesday being totals. We have also searched for the best available odds at the top sportsbooks for each of our selections. Note that our action begins relatively early, with the first game scheduled for 5:10 pm ET.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Cincinnati Reds
Wednesday, August 13, 2025 – 5:10 PM EDT at Great American Ball Park
We are expecting a good old pitching duel with a twilight time start in Cincinnati on Wednesday. So, we are backing the Under when Hunter Greene makes his return from the injured list for the Reds hosting Cristopher Sanchez and the Phillies.
Greene on Way to Cy Young Type Season When Injured
We were very high on Greene at the start of the season, so high on him in fact that we considered him a darkhorse candidate for the National League Cy Young Award. And he was indeed in spectacular form until he injured his groin and went on the injured list on June 3rd. He is making his long-awaited return from his two-month absence tonight, and the Reds have not announced any inning restrictions.
Hunter may be just 4-3, but he had a 2.72 ERA through 59.2 innings and a fantastic K/BB ratio of 11.01/2.11 per nine innings at the time he went down. He routinely tops 100 MPH with his fastball, which, at an average of 99.4 MPH has the highest average velocity of any starting pitcher in baseball. But he also owns a biting 89.1 MPH slider rated a remarkable 138 on Stuff+ that prevents batters from sitting on the heater.
In addition to the strikeouts, that mix has also led to a good soft/hard contact ratio of 18.9%/28.4%. While Greene is no longer a Cy Young contender with the time lost, we still expect him to pitch like one the rest of the way.
Sanchez 3rd in ERA, 5th in xFIP, 4th in WAR
While Greene has been out of the Cy Young picture, Sanchez has made himself a contender with a breakthrough year in his fifth Major League season while approaching his peak at the age of 28. The Phillies have been waiting for him to mature, and it has happened as he comes in at 11-3 while ranking third in the majors (not just the NL) in ERA at 2.36, fifth in xFIP at 2.84, and fourth in Pitching WAR at 4.1!
Cristopher has a career-best strikeout rate of 9.39/9 next to a good enough walk rate of 2.18/9, and he combines that with ranking fourth in the league in groundball rate at 57.6%. He does all this without a true fastball, but all three of his pitches (sinker/slider/change-up) are rated 108 or higher on Stuff+ with an overall rating of 113.
Moreover, Sanchez faces a Cincinnati offense that has been disappointing against left-handers, ranking just 24th in wRC+ against them at a dismal 78 (22% below average).
If not for Greene’s injury, we think this would be a matchup of two Cy Young contenders. But we still feel it is an elite pitching matchup anyway, so bet on the Under in the Queen City.
Predicted Score: Reds 3 – Phillies 2
Chicago Cubs vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Wednesday, August 13, 2025 – 7:07 PM EDT at Rogers Centre
We foresee a low-scoring affair in Toronto on Wednesday and are thus betting on the Under when Kevin Gausman and the Blue Jays host Cade Horton and the Cubs.
Gausman Sixth Straight Year with sub-4.00 ERA
We have always felt that Gausman was somewhat underrated, and the 34-year-old has kept on rolling along this season. He deserves better than his 8-8 record as he owns a 3.85 ERA and a nicely aligned 3.92 xFIP through 23 starts covering 135.2 innings. If the ERA stays at its current level, it will mark the sixth straight season that it was below 4.00 for a pitcher with a career 3.84 ERA and a better 3.70 xFIP in over 1800 career innings!
Kevin saw his strikeout rate dip to 8.06/9 last season, but it is now back to nearly one batter per inning at 8.96/9 this year, coinciding with a slight rise in velocity to 94.4 MPH. That improvement is validated by a sudden spike in his swinging strike rate to 12.7% from 10.5% last year. He also has a very nice secondary pitch in a splitter rated 101 on Stuff+.
If the veteran needs some relief, the Toronto bullpen now ranks eighth in the Major Leagues in xFIP at 3.99.
Horton Wanted by Other Teams, Cubs Refused to Deal
The 23-year-old rookie Horton was apparently a hot commodity sought after by several pennant contenders at the trading deadline, but the Cubs simply refused to part with the seventh overall pick of the 2022 MLB Draft. He has made a fairly quick ascent to the big leagues three years later after posting a 1.24 ERA in six starts in Triple-A to begin this season, and he has not been flustered by the bright lights at the top level.
Cade enters at 6-3 with a 3.18 ERA in 15 appearances, covering 79.1 innings, including 14 starts. After making his Major League debut in long relief, he has allowed three earned runs or less in 12 of 14 starts since then and is currently on a nice streak of 22.2 scoreless innings over his last four outings!
Horton has not matched his strikeout rates in the minors with that K-rate at only 6.69 in the majors, but positive regression is expected there with his swinging strike rate at 11.8%. He is also inducing a good groundball rate of 47.0%.
In a matchup between a wily veteran in Gausman, who has maintained his good form, and a rookie in Horton that looks in line for a nice career, we are going under in Rogers Centre in this spot.
Predicted Score: Blue Jays 4 – Cubs 2
Tampa Bay Rays vs. The Athletics
Wednesday, August 13, 2025 – 10:05 PM ET at Sutter Health Park
We think this nearly double-digit posted total seems a bit inflated in Sacramento on Wednesday, so we support the Under when Drew Rasmussen and the Rays visit J.T. Ginn and the Athletics.
Rays Stretching Out Rasmussen While in Great Form
The Rays had been monitoring innings for Rasmussen this season in his return to the starting rotation following several surgeries, including Tommy John, but they appear to be easing on that approach. He was allowed to go six innings last time out for his longest start of the season, and he was outstanding as they were six scoreless innings while allowing only four hits with four strikeouts and not a single walk vs. the Mariners.
And Drew has been great all year, regardless of the innings restrictions, as he is 9-5 with a 2.66 ERA and 3.46 xFIP over 111.2 total innings. He has now gone at least five innings in each of his last three starts as the Rays continue to stretch him out, and he allowed a total of two runs in 16.1 innings over those starts, including 11.1 scoreless frames over his last two outings.
Remember that, through all the surgeries, Rasmussen has a career 2.88 ERA and 3.43 WHIP in 422.1 Major League innings, so there is no denying his talent when he makes it to the mound. And he does have the support of a Tampa Bay bullpen that leads the majors in xFIP at 3.82.
Ginn xFIP Full Run Lower Than His ERA
The 26-year-old Ginn may be just 2-4 with a 4.39 ERA in 15 games, including eight starts, but his overall xFIP is a full run lower at a very good 3.36, and he has pitched well since being re-inserted into the rotation on July 22nd. He has allowed three runs or fewer in three of four starts since then, while allowing four runs in the other outing, with a 3.54 ERA over 20.1 innings.
J.T. is part of a young A’s rotation that shows some nice promise, and he has a very good strikeout rate for the season of 9.79/9 along with a great groundball rate of 53.8%. He has a heavy 93.9 MPH sinker rated a hefty 110 on Stuff+ that has fueled the groundball rate and has also contributed to the strikeouts. Moreover, he has raised his soft contact rate considerably since his rookie season last year, to 17.2% from 13.7%.
In the end, Rasmussen is the healthiest he has been in years while maintaining his great form, while Ginn has made some nice strides in his sophomore season. Bet on the under tonight.
Predicted Score: Rays 4 – Athletics 3
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
